Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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WOW Matt Shaw better get a whole lot better in the outfield or he's not long for this city Probably only room for one of Ramirez/Rojas/Triantos too
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Pirates optimism met reality approximately 25 minutes into the season
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 3-27-26
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
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Looks like 61 times?? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pete-crow-armstrong/27769/splits?position=NP I would have put the over under at like 20, shows what I know
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I think to me the two biggest questions are: 1. How well does the team walk the line between holding onto depth and not wasting bullets? For example if Jameson Taillon has an ERA north of 6 and peripherals to match, how many starts does he get before he's yanked from the rotation? 3? 5? 10? On the flipside even if no one is struggling let's say Ben Brown is monstrous in long relief or Jaxon Wiggins is demolishing AAA, how long does it take to get them into the rotation? 2. The team has seven full time players heading into FA next winter (4 bats, 3 SPs). How many of those spots can you feel confident in filling internally by the time October runs around? For instance Kevin Alcantara is the ideal internal choice to replace one of Happ/Suzuki next year. But is he going to get enough 2026 plate appearances that we can confidently say whether he should or should not get a 2027 job? If he only gets ~200 PAs this year, even if they're great how much can you take away from that? These are thankfully not the worst problems to have. It's not quite champagne problems but it's a far cry from "do we have a single viable 3B anywhere in this damn org?" like we were asking a few years ago.
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I'd guess the plan is something along the lines of 50/40/10 between Kelly, Amaya, and Mo. That said catcher is like pitcher where you can safely assume injury so it'll probably just work itself out.
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That top of the order is really vulnerable to a good LH reliever. The Nats don't have any good ones, they traded their one for Harry Ford, so it should be fine. But like this lineup is not how they should go if god forbid Seiya misses more than a week. Unless the plan is to be more aggressive pinch hitting for Busch and PCA than we have heard.
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Forecast looked spotty at times over the last few days but now it's looking pretty good assuming it doesn't drag too long
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Between stuff like this, their recent round of hirings, the fact that he no longer writes on weekends, etc. it feels like Brett Taylor's about to hang them up.
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I assume Noland's hurt, he hasn't gotten into a ST game in 3 weeks despite showing a velo spike that makes him way more interesting than he was last year. The team usually errs on the side of leaving all the washed up veterans in the Iowa rotation while some prospects you'd think earned a promotion repeat Tenn for a month. So I'd expect Assad / Sanders / Wiggins for sure but then the Wright/Velasquez/Barnes types to have pref over the Kipps of the world.
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It's reasonably likely that Conforto's still got a solid bat. His batted ball data last year was still strong, basically he had a combo if being BABIPed a little and a little not pulling enough of his fly balls. Like I'm not trying to claim signing him was some masterful gambit but a platoon aided 110-115 wRC+ feels pretty attainable. That's like a....60th?...percentile outcome? Carlson's a little more boom/bust. He's way more likely to have a Brujan level disaster of a bat. But at the same time he's got patience, contact, and a tweener glove. Doesn't feel that far fetched for him to end up somewhere Tauchman-esque and worth playing every day if there's an injury. Ultimately though I think it's a numbers game, and even the team is viewing like their approach to the bullpen.
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Yan Gomes had a career 89 wRC+, and for most of his career was shielded with platoon duty. Ariel Armas had a 95 in high A last year, which accounts for league not ballpark. Add in South Bend's park-specific factor and we're probably in the black. He also got stronger as the year went on, 117 from 6/1 onward and 131 from 7/1 onward. Like yeah sure most prospects don't play 12 years and put up 17 career WAR but like you could say similar about anyone we discuss here?
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Losing Neely seems silly with how much other fat is on the roster. Like he's probably nothing but Trevor Megill was probably nothing and Jeremiah Estrada was probably nothing. We can't just hoard every live arm on the ~10% chance they pop but why are we dumping a live arm before we dump Justin Dean or Ben Cowles. Speaking of Ben Cowles, why isn't he just taking the Kingery spot? I assume the point of Kingery is basically that Shaw will probably not play 9 innings in a lot of games early. He will either get subbed out for offense (Conforto) or defense (Carlson) until he proves himself more. So you need another infielder in case Shaw gets swapped out and then god forbid like Nico pulls a hammy later on. But otherwise that guy is just gonna rot on the bench, so why can't it just be Cowles? Or hell it's just a week call up Ramirez and be like "hey man you had a great offseason and a great spring training hang out in Chicago for a week and collect a big league paycheck"?
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Small potatoes but this is dumb
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Armas is legit. He was IIRC called the best defensive catcher in the country in that draft. The fact that he's showing even a little life with the bat is huge. Like it's probably not a star profile but no reason he can't be Yan Gomes or something thereabouts.
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FWIW it currently looks like rain is supposed to hit in the early evening tomorrow. So the game looks safe but things don't have to shift a ton for that to change.
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This is the team yelling into a bullhorn that they believe PCA's a superstar
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Really strong contact and chase #s this spring too. Exciting stuff.
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Question of the week: how many games will the Cubs win in 2026?
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I said 91+ I don't think it's going to be way plus, I expect a similar output to last year. Last year we had an elite position player group and an okay pitching staff. This year I expect both groups to converge and end up good. There is upside beyond that. The pitching staff in particular I won't really argue with the 50th percentile projections where they are. But at the same time it's obvious that basically every SP beyond Taillon and Rea provides an easy to see a path to providing more. -
PCA leading off to get that standing ovation, I see you Craig
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I'd guess with where payroll is it kicks in for 2026, but yeah Happ and I believe Hoerner worked like you said and started after the season they were signed.
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One of the catchers if it's just a random day off, Long gets called up if there is an injury. All they said about Austin is "months" for his knee to recover so I'm assuming June or July. That said with adding the three bench guys to the roster an Austin 60 Day IL move is an obvious lever to pull, so if they don't it says he's expected back before Memorial Day.
