Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,531

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    39

 Content Type 

Profiles

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Trade & Free Agent Rumors

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospect Rankings

Chicago Cubs News, Rumors & Analysis

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Chicago Cubs Fan Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I pounded the table for this for most of the offseason, that said I think the Matt Shaw situation materially changed things. Even when Seiya comes back, here's probably enough playing time for both of Shaw and Mo to play something approaching full time. Mo plays full time DH vs. RHP and Shaw plays DH-by-proxy against LHP and covers for non C/1B who needs a day off. Those last two bench spots are fighting for scraps. Conforto/Carlson pinch hitting for Shaw against tough split-heavy relievers, Carlson/Kingery getting a smattering of pinch running/defensive replacement work. I wouldn't want to have Kevin fight for scraps, and I don't want to pull back from Shaw or Mo unless they have lengthier struggles and prove we should pull back from them. What I would say is whatever modest expectations I had for Conforto and Carlson are dropping rapidly. I think after Seiya returns next week any future position player injuries I'd call up Alcantara. I also think that when we get to the summer if anyone has played themselves out of some playing time Kevin can potentially be up for good.
  2. Bertz
    I'm not a mechanics guy and haven't seen the guy in 6 months but pretty sure that's a much different swing than last year
  3. Bertz
    Hartshorn has not swung and missed a single time through 4 PAs
  4. Bertz
    The circumatances are different with all the repeaters but I don't think the Pelican scored their 7th run of the season until like the second week of May last year so I'm liking this vibe shift.
  5. Bertz
    Assad's velo was fantastic tonight. I'll be taking no further questions about his evening.
  6. Bertz
    I've noticed it tends to do that with really high ones. Alcantara had a couple that statcast lost last year.
  7. Bertz
    Annoyed Southisene is still at Myrtle vs. intrigued by him getting run at shortstop
  8. Bertz
    Just generally not loving the infield decisions for MB and SB
  9. Bertz
  10. Bertz
    He'd need to cut his groundball rate substantially without breaking anything else. Doesn't seem likely but at the rate he's developing....
  11. Bertz
    Stupidly early but Pedro Ramirez has a 90.5% contact rate and a 24.1% chase rate. For MLB comparison those are 99th percentile and 72nd percentile respectively. He also, if we cheat and look back to ST, has a 113 MPH max exit velocity, which is 69th percentile. Whatever Pedro did this winter worked because we increasingly appear to have some sort of Nico Hoerner / Steven Kwan hybrid on our hands
  12. Bertz
    Through 6 games Cubs Batters: 21.5% K, 13.2% BB Cubs Pitchers: 28.2% K, 8.8% BB
  13. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara has - 13 balls in play this season - 7 hit 100+ MPH - 6 of THOSE are in the air - NONE of THOSE have a launch angle above 25 degrees (30+ is when you start getting into too high territory) It's 5 games. He's been in AAA for a bit. But this is still fun, exactly what you'd ask for.
  14. Bertz
    He would have been one of the top regression candidates you'd pick coming into this year and he's clearly saying ABSOLUTELY NOT
  15. Bertz
    Spin looks about the same. 2169 for the 4 seamer 2153 for the sinker. Although that's its own tell, from looking at a handful of other sinkerballers (Logan Webb, Luis Castillo, Kyle Hendricks) the difference is usually higher by a lot more, Logan Webb was a couple hundred for instance. So on a relative basis I'd say you're right it has a good bit more spin. The show tends to have damn near every pitch name available, and the way the make it matter is they use it is to break out which direction it moves. For instance if you look at a clock a running fastball would move towards 3 o clock, a 2-seamer towards 4 o clock, and a sinker towards 5 o clock. But realistically to your point those are all just variations of the same pitch.
  16. Bertz
    The sinker is also interesting because it doesn't really sink it just goes sideways. If you play MLB the Show it's a Running Fastball more than a sinker. I assume that's why it doesn't lose any velo? And then it looks like on the 4 seamer he traded a smidge of run for a little more rise, which helps separate the two Really fascinating how the sinker appears to have tied everything together.
  17. Bertz
    It looks like Stuff+ is all aboard the Ben Brown hype train. All four of Brown's pitches grade out above average, and his overall Stuff+ score is 111, which for reference would have tied him with Zack Wheeler last year . Generally Cubs pitchers have not fared well via Stuff+. Even the guys we have who do rack up strikeouts have flashed on PitchingBot (Fangraphs other stuff model) but not Stuff+. It doesn't necessarily mean a ton but I thought it stood out looking over Brown's page.
  18. Bertz
    Similar conditions to last night
  19. Bertz
    It's early enough that even peripherals are meaningless, but realistically the only players to this point with anything scary going on under the hood are Conforto and Taillon. And to his credit even Taillon got plenty of swing and miss last night, which is generally what I'd worry about with his velocity evaporating.
  20. Bertz
    Noland pitched early in ST a couple times and had some extra juice on his fastball. Curious to see how much of that survived being fully stretched out. Noland was at 90.3 MPH last year. Especially since his primary fastball is a cutter just getting up to 91 and change probably makes him big league viable.
  21. Bertz
    ^Me in a month to the prospect writers who dropped Alcantara below horsefeathering Kane Kepley on their lists
  22. Bertz
    Next Friday against Pitt feels like the smart money. Maybe Wednesday in Tampa with the built in Thursday off day?
  23. Bertz
    The thing with Taillon is he was already the worst projected member of the starting 5 coming into the spring. In fact generally he projects behind Brown/Wicka/Assad too. So any signal that "hey this guy is materially worse than your (already low) expectations" is a bright red flag. He also looked pretty bad in his WBC start against Panama. He kept runs off the board because it's a glorified AA team but that undercuts any sort of "savvy veteran saving his bullets / waiting for adrenaline" type excuse. The team has alluded to a lower body issue, and he's got a lengthy history of those. He also looked like himself the first two innings of his last ST start, and Counsell said he faded later in the outing because of the heat (pretty reasonable excuse TBH). There's a chance this was much ado about nothing and alarm bells were raised over a fairly normal thing that we suddenly received transparency into this year. So like of course give him a chance, frankly give him at least a couple, but the leash can't be especially long.
  24. Bertz
    Less surprising after all the run he got in Spring Training but Hartshorn too. It wouldn't have been a huge shock to wait until May. Lovich and Southisene were on that timeline last year. I'm annoyed at the South Bend infield. Southisene and Mathis should be up there. Escobar probably too, though maybe this is confirmation Escobar going to tbe outfield is more about his deficiency rather than deference to other guys.
  25. Bertz
    Hopefully Taillon’s fixed whatever issues he had and can hold his normal velo for a full game. If not it's lined up for us get a lot of Ben Brown tonight
×
×
  • Create New...