Bertz

*clears throat in the direction of Ben Brown*

Not going to get worked up over relievers, but not having to give Williams a fourth year feels like it should have been a go.

Except for the 2020/2021 offseason right before the selloff, Jed has added at one player every offseason who had been worth 3+ WAR the year before: '21/'22 - Stroman at 3.5 WAR '22/'23 - Swanson at 6.6 WAR '23/'24 - Bellinger at 4.4 WAR '24/'25 - Tucker at 4.2 WAR I'll be honest I don't expect that explicit streak to continue this winter, there are only so many 3+ WAR guys who feel likr a decent fit on this roster. But for as conservative as he's been Jed has made at least one splashy move every winter. Smart money IMO is for two of the moves to be in line with what you've got above and a third that's well north of that level. So like Gallen, Refsnyder, and Devin Williams. Or Gallen, Finnegan, and Okamoto. Or Finnegan, Refsnyder, and Imai.

I listened to Ken Rosenthal's podcast this AM. Nothing Cubs specific but he did talk a lot about the market broadly: - The SP free agent market is going to move at a good clip over the next two weeks. It'll likely be picked over by the time the winter meetings are over - Notable exception to the above is Imai. Because of the logistics specific to him and his posting window, he's not going to sign until closer to Christmas - Orioles, Braves, and Yankees were teams mentioned in the high end SP market. Giants and Red Sox (post Gray) are likely going to hang out more mid-market. Cubs and Mets didn't really get brought up here, I assume because both have been very transparent they're playing in these waters so it's not news? - Trades are likely going to be back burnered until free agency has progressed more - Expect a bunch of smoke around Tarik Skubal, Freddie Peralta, and Joe Ryan but for them to not ultimately go anywhere. The other frequent names, the Edward Cabreras of the world, are more likely to actually be moved

Finnegan is kind of the anti Helsley. Pretty mid career and an incredible cup of coffee with the Tigers. I'm highly skeptical that >50% splitters is a thing you can successfully do permanently. So I think my interest would hinge on whether he takes 1 year to sign or 2. MLBTR has him at 2 but I suspect he's borderline.

The poor 1H performance of the 2024 pen is a point in favor of bullpen nihilism, not against. Alzolay and Merryweather were certified monsters in 2023, and Neris' 2023 ERA overstated his level of impact but he still projected for for a 3.90 ERA coming into the season. The Cubs had three high quality late inning options coming into the season, two had their arms explode and the 3rd lost the strikezone. It sucks but I don't think it teaches you anything except that attrition is a horsefeathers.

I think several things are true: - The Cubs are very good at finding undervalued relievers - Because of the volatility, the bullpen is probably the least efficient place to put a marginal dollar on a baseball team - Acquiring relievers isn't totally random. More resources tends to improve reliability and stuff, even if not by as much as you'd expect - The Cubs *full season* numbers have not been especially impressive for any bullpen in the Jed era. In '21/'22 that was because of trade deadline selloffs, since then it's been because the unit has struggled early each year - The bullpen coming into the winter was practically empty. Palencia, Hodge (who ideally starts next season at Iowa), several quality long relief options, and a couple of Iowa lottery tickets - Because the Cubs' roster is already fairly complete, there's not a lot of upgrade opportunities apart from the bullpen All told the Cubs should spend significantly more on the bullpen than they have historically. They need both depth and impact talent. At the same time we don't need to live and die with every signing. The margins between a Ryan Helsley and a Pete Fairbanks and a Brad Keller are nominal. Think in terms of tiers not specific names.

Here's anotber list of names. From the last 10 years guys who pitched at least 100 IP in a season with an ERA north of 5 and an xFIP south of 4. 11 guys in total, they saw their ERAs drop by 1.43 runs on average YoY. The way to read the numbers below is: ERA in year listed / xFIP in year listed / ERA the following year Putting this in a quote so it doesn't take up as much room I also want to call out three more names. These guys just barely missed my criteria, but each one became a star. 2016 Robbie Ray - 4.90/3.45/2.89 2016 Aaron Nola - 4.78/3.08/3.54 2019 Kevin Gausman - 5.72/4.05/3.62 It's not a slam dunk Brown becomes an impact arm, he could be Chris Paddack or Tyler Duffey or Michael Pineda (not listed above but a 'just missed' who didn't improve). But throwing the baby out with the bathwater because of some hard contact and BABIP has an opportunity to spectacularly blow up in your face.

Jansen is one of the very few relievers who I feel comfortable saying has no chance of coming here. No judgment, I'm rooting for him, but he's chasing milestones and will want assurances that he gets all save opportunities. That's not how Craig rolls, especially for a guy who's fairly shakey at this point.

I would guess it wasn't the money it was the opt out after 1. Despite all the conspiracy theories about the CBA the team doesn't want the entire roster to turn over next offseason. These things tend to come in waves, so I wouldn't be surprised if a handful of the other highly comparable guys (Keller, Fairbanks, Weaver) sign in the next day or two. We know Jed's working in this tier this winter.

Well there you have it I guess, case closed

A collection of pitchers that Ben Brown outpitched last year as measured by both xFIP (Fangraphs) and DRA (Baseball Prospectus): Matt Boyd Cade Horton Dylan Cease Edward Cabrera Freddy Peralta Kevin Gausman Carlos Rodon Nick Pivetta Mackenzie Gore Ranger Suarez Brown had the peripherals of a guy who could legitimately start game 1 of a playoff series. He also had the best peripherals of any SP on our team. Now obviously peripherals ignore batted ball data, and that's a huge part of the story with Brown. But as we all know this stuff is really fickle. In 2025 we can't just point at BABIP and say "luck!" but it is mostly luck. Some light math says the YoY correlation on barrel rate is .45 and on hard hit rate is .55. That's not inconsequential but it's also a far far cry from a permanent death sentence. For instance, among pitchers who pitched 100+ innings in '24 and '25, Carlos Rodon had the worst barrel rate in the league in 2024. In 2025 he was 93rd. You need several hundred innings before you can say a pitcher's batted ball outcomes, good or bad, are meaningfully predictive. I also don't buy the two pitch thing as some sort of crippling problem either. Setting aside that there's plenty of pitchers that do great with two pitches, it doesn't track with how Brown has primarily struggled. A limited repertoire is usually associated with heightened struggles deeper in games. Essentially the times through the order penalty becomes magnified because the pitcher lacks a variety of ways to get outs. That's why these guys get funneled into relief. However Brown's biggest struggles were early in games. Brown had an ERA of 9.00 (!!!) in the first inning, his highest of any inning. He also had his worst peripherals (an xFIP of 4.38). That should have absolutely nothing to do with only having two pitches. Brown's 3rd time through the order ERA is also pretty inflated (13.19...even in a small sample woof!), but I think it should be noted his peripherals were still strong. But while I'm clearly quite bullish on him with a little more sample I would buy Brown's going to be limited to being a 5 and dive guy due to his lack of repertoire. Now I don't say all this to imply we should go into next year with Brown in the rotation. His struggles seem pretty flukey, but you can't just assume it'll all work out immediately with the clean slate of a new season. But I do think it's reasonably likely that in the near future he's a SP that we actively want starting games. So I do think he should be near the front of the line among the depth SPs, whether that's in the bullpen as the long guy (my preference) or at Iowa as the first SP on the speed dial.

This is largely the same fanbase that flatly refused to acknowledge how the wind blowing in at Wrigley impacts offense, so this behavior tracks.

And DVOA has been, pardon the pun, the most bearish on the team amongst the advanced metrics. I wouldn't be surprised to see 80%+ playoff odds elsewhere. Win two more games, with one of those coming against SF or Detroit, and I think itt's pretty much a lock?

Suzuki and Shota for Japan Caissie for Canada Amaya for Panama Assad for Mexico Ballesteros and Palencia for Venezuela Hoerner probably ought to start at 2B for the US

He's talked about strikeouts and "taking some of the luck out of the game" a few times, most notably to me this retrospective on Kyle Hendricks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-executives-on-developing-the-next-kyle-hendricks/ I found this really funny but also very revealing. A reporter calls asking for a few quotes for a fluff piece on Kyle and he's so laser focused on adding swing and miss to the current team it spills over with this diatribe. I believe he had similar spiels during his end of season presser and his meeting with reporters at the GM meetings. So I'd be surprised if the remaining SP is a finesse guy. Michael King or Edward Cabrera are probably the smart money.

Gallen and Suarez are pretty Jed coded but with how incessantly he's talking about strikeouts this winter id be surprised if we end up there. Valdez is going to get approximately the same money as Cease and similarly does not feel like what Jed's seeking out this offseason. We're looking at King or a trade IMO. Outside shot of Imai.

Damn, I wanted Cease. He was my #1 guy this winter. I like the trade options a smidge less than Cease and the FAs a lot less, so I'm hoping Jed has already sent a few "u up?" texts to the Marlins and Nats. I also think it's interesting that there's been so much smoke around the bullpen the last few days, specifically that the team is going to throw a good bit more money around there than we're used to. Given the timing it's hard not to think there's a connection. The question is if the team just "freed up" $10Mish (the dropoff from Cease to someone like King) or $25Mish (the dropoff from Cease to someone like Gore or Cabrera). Time will tell I guess.

The fact that there's been a weirdly high amount of Helsley buzz from multiple places makes me think he's about ready to sign and is kicking up noise to make sure he's not leaving any money on the table.

Listened to Sharma and Mooney's latest podcast and this definitely feels like this has legs and is not just a "they're checking in on every reliever" thing.

He was tipping pitches https://www.mlb.com/news/ryan-helsley-addresses-recent-pitch-tipping-issues He had a 14.90 (!!!) ERA from 8/10 to 9/10, and outside of that stretch had a 2.33. I hate the "except for when he was bad he was good" thing but there's some clear cause and effect here. I'll be curious to see what Helsely gets. In my mind it's like Devin Williams and you ignore the ERA and give him Tanner Scott money. But the MLBTR's of the world have him in the same brakcet as Brad Keller, which feels like a bargain opportunity.

👀

Even though there haven't been any rumors yet Leiter feels pretty inevitable. I have not dug in deep into his horrendous second half last year, though he didn't lose velo so it doesn't appear to be injury. But Hottovy has fixed him like four times already so bringing him in on Caleb Thielbar money seems like a no brainer. How I feel about that has less to do with Leiter and more to do with what else gets done. Leiter would slot 3rd into the bullpen if ST started today. I'm not too worried about that happening but it would be a major problem. If he's fourth I think that's still a bit disappointing, if he's fifth or lower it gets a "hell yeah brother" from me.

Cards are gonna be baaaaddddd next year Also probably good for the Cubs this winter. Easy to envision the Red Sox and Cubs swimming in a lot of the same waters on the SP front. Red Sox are presumably done with their rotation noe.

A collection of pitchers Ben Brown had better peripherals than last year: Dylan Cease Ranger Suarez Edward Cabrera Kris Bubic Joe Ryan Mackenzie Gore Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester Kevin Gausman Nick Pivetta Carlos Rodon I'm not super convinced Brown needs to change a thing personally.