Bertz

Jonny Long just does not make outs

It appears Javier Assad's WBC velocity spike was not just a national pride-fueled mirage

Pretty surprised it came in under 150. Good horsefeathers, dude loves it here.

It is funny to me that there is a pretty large and vocal part of this fanbase that lets Milwaukee live rent-free in their heads and yet loses their minds when the Cubs do anything besides prioritize homeruns.

@Named After Maddux This was so good! Flanagan especially stands out. I think we saw this spring with Luke Little the difference that having a "real offseason" can make, at least in terms of your measurables. Reports on Flanagan's stuff last summer were a little solid and unspectacular. But if more strength leads to a little more juice on the fastball he could get fun fast.

But a glove first CF who is much much further away from FA should somehow still be paid more?

There's zero chance Hoerner makes less than PCA. Zero. PCA's still pre-arb, Hoerner's probably got food in his pantry that will still be good before he was set to hit free agency. The question is whether it comes in closer to $150M or $200M.

I think between Shaw and the three prospect infielders (Rojas/Triantos/Ramirez) you should definitely plan to keep one and can maybe accomadate two if you make one of them something approaching a full time outfielder. There's pros and cons for each guy; - Shaw and Rojas are the most likely to have enough bat to still be a quality player in the outfield - As a switch hitter Ramirez is probably the best compliment to the current infield - Triantos as a speed/defense/contact guy is probably the one who is best suited to being a career bench guy Thankfully there's time and no rush to get anything done, not like there was this winter with Caissie. If the team does want to do anything major at the deadline though I feel like this better be the stash Jed deals from.

More thoughts: - I ultimately would not have done this. Nico's a really good player and a really cool dude so I'm not upset at all, but just coldly I would not have done this. I don't love locking dowm the entire non-1B infield for so long, even though I'm quite happy about each guy individually - I wonder if there are opt out(s). Feels like one in two years post roster cliff and post CBA would make some sense for both sides - I wonder if Nico gets the biggest Cubs contract ever. Probably gonna be close. At 6 years the line to beat is $32M a year I think? - Between PCA's ~$20M and the presumably ~$30M for Hoerner, the team will enter next offseason $50-60M under the current luxury tax (which will obviously go up). So they've got some money next winter but honestly not a ton - They can seriously trade every single infield prospect they have now if they want to, so expect trade(s) to be a big (primary?) route to filling holes for 2027 - Shaw either succeeds at Zobristing or he's gone. And honestly he might still get moved even if he succeeds - Jefferson Rojas is probably one hell of a trade chip now, but honestly hes the one infielder in the system I wonder if he might have enough bat to still be quality as a corner outfielder - There's not really an off ramp for Swanson at shortstop before his contract runs out. This doesn't super worry me a ton but it's not without risk - Probably easier to go into 2027 with a question mark in one of the outfield spots now? My mind goes to Alcantara but it doesn't have to be him necessarily

WOW Matt Shaw better get a whole lot better in the outfield or he's not long for this city Probably only room for one of Ramirez/Rojas/Triantos too

Pirates optimism met reality approximately 25 minutes into the season

Looks like 61 times?? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pete-crow-armstrong/27769/splits?position=NP I would have put the over under at like 20, shows what I know

I think to me the two biggest questions are: 1. How well does the team walk the line between holding onto depth and not wasting bullets? For example if Jameson Taillon has an ERA north of 6 and peripherals to match, how many starts does he get before he's yanked from the rotation? 3? 5? 10? On the flipside even if no one is struggling let's say Ben Brown is monstrous in long relief or Jaxon Wiggins is demolishing AAA, how long does it take to get them into the rotation? 2. The team has seven full time players heading into FA next winter (4 bats, 3 SPs). How many of those spots can you feel confident in filling internally by the time October runs around? For instance Kevin Alcantara is the ideal internal choice to replace one of Happ/Suzuki next year. But is he going to get enough 2026 plate appearances that we can confidently say whether he should or should not get a 2027 job? If he only gets ~200 PAs this year, even if they're great how much can you take away from that? These are thankfully not the worst problems to have. It's not quite champagne problems but it's a far cry from "do we have a single viable 3B anywhere in this damn org?" like we were asking a few years ago.

I'd guess the plan is something along the lines of 50/40/10 between Kelly, Amaya, and Mo. That said catcher is like pitcher where you can safely assume injury so it'll probably just work itself out.

That top of the order is really vulnerable to a good LH reliever. The Nats don't have any good ones, they traded their one for Harry Ford, so it should be fine. But like this lineup is not how they should go if god forbid Seiya misses more than a week. Unless the plan is to be more aggressive pinch hitting for Busch and PCA than we have heard.

Forecast looked spotty at times over the last few days but now it's looking pretty good assuming it doesn't drag too long

Between stuff like this, their recent round of hirings, the fact that he no longer writes on weekends, etc. it feels like Brett Taylor's about to hang them up.

I assume Noland's hurt, he hasn't gotten into a ST game in 3 weeks despite showing a velo spike that makes him way more interesting than he was last year. The team usually errs on the side of leaving all the washed up veterans in the Iowa rotation while some prospects you'd think earned a promotion repeat Tenn for a month. So I'd expect Assad / Sanders / Wiggins for sure but then the Wright/Velasquez/Barnes types to have pref over the Kipps of the world.

It's reasonably likely that Conforto's still got a solid bat. His batted ball data last year was still strong, basically he had a combo if being BABIPed a little and a little not pulling enough of his fly balls. Like I'm not trying to claim signing him was some masterful gambit but a platoon aided 110-115 wRC+ feels pretty attainable. That's like a....60th?...percentile outcome? Carlson's a little more boom/bust. He's way more likely to have a Brujan level disaster of a bat. But at the same time he's got patience, contact, and a tweener glove. Doesn't feel that far fetched for him to end up somewhere Tauchman-esque and worth playing every day if there's an injury. Ultimately though I think it's a numbers game, and even the team is viewing like their approach to the bullpen.

Yan Gomes had a career 89 wRC+, and for most of his career was shielded with platoon duty. Ariel Armas had a 95 in high A last year, which accounts for league not ballpark. Add in South Bend's park-specific factor and we're probably in the black. He also got stronger as the year went on, 117 from 6/1 onward and 131 from 7/1 onward. Like yeah sure most prospects don't play 12 years and put up 17 career WAR but like you could say similar about anyone we discuss here?

Losing Neely seems silly with how much other fat is on the roster. Like he's probably nothing but Trevor Megill was probably nothing and Jeremiah Estrada was probably nothing. We can't just hoard every live arm on the ~10% chance they pop but why are we dumping a live arm before we dump Justin Dean or Ben Cowles. Speaking of Ben Cowles, why isn't he just taking the Kingery spot? I assume the point of Kingery is basically that Shaw will probably not play 9 innings in a lot of games early. He will either get subbed out for offense (Conforto) or defense (Carlson) until he proves himself more. So you need another infielder in case Shaw gets swapped out and then god forbid like Nico pulls a hammy later on. But otherwise that guy is just gonna rot on the bench, so why can't it just be Cowles? Or hell it's just a week call up Ramirez and be like "hey man you had a great offseason and a great spring training hang out in Chicago for a week and collect a big league paycheck"?

Small potatoes but this is dumb

Armas is legit. He was IIRC called the best defensive catcher in the country in that draft. The fact that he's showing even a little life with the bat is huge. Like it's probably not a star profile but no reason he can't be Yan Gomes or something thereabouts.