Bertz

"Who needs prospects?" is a weird takeaway from watching this Blue Jays squad

I think it's mostly defense? Since he became a full time SP here are where his teams have ranked defensively '21 - 29th '22 - 22nd '23 - 25th '24 - 20th '25 - 19th Because his xERAs are also sparkling, so it's definitely not a hard contact thing a la Ben Brown. I also kind of wonder how much of it is regression from his insane '22. Like again if you look at his numbers over his 5 full seasons things have mostly evened out: ERA - 3.72 xERA - 3.43 FIP - 3.37 xFIP- 3.65 Keeping in mind the defenses he's played in front of that's about what you'd expect.

This but for Roki Sasaki's splitter

With Tom being put out to pasture there might be some actual competition here. I assume LBiittner took it with his crash oit but it's not a slam dunk

Pros/Cons for targeting Cease specifically: Pros - His high octane fastball and oodles of strikeouts are something the current staff doesn't have a lot of. Hell even with all of the good pitchers we've had over the last 15 years I'm not sure we've had a guy like this since Wood? - Horton and Brown have some Dylan Cease to them. Wiggins has a ton. We generally think of finesse guys as the "extra coach" but Cease is probably better prepared to mentor our best young arms than like Ranger Suarez is - Longterm investments on any pitcher are fraught, but AFAIK harder throwers have softer aging curves - Based on the Contract Crowdsourcing articles Fangraphs started launching this AM it looks like Cease is the best projected arm in this class by an ever so narrow margin - Dude can rock a pretty killer mustache Cons - You're likely paying a premium for strikeouts that doesn't necessarily manifest in saved runs. Maybe that's worth it now that you're expecting to play every October? But you're probably going to have to give an Aaron Nola or Max Fried contract to Cease as opposed to something more like Kevin Gausman money to Shane Bieber. You're likely going to lose a high level $/WAR calc, so you need to have conviction that some of these extracurricular rationales are valid and worthwhile - There's some Blake Snell there when he's not on his A game, and I mean that derogatorily - Cease's mustache success made him mistakenly think he should be a beard guy, which is where we are currently. Some intervention is required which is a delicate convo to have while simultaneously trying to woo him

"Swing and miss stuff" isn't a position on a baseball roster so you're not really making the point you think you are. The Cubs absolute needs for this winter are a bench bat or two and a handful of relievers (though notably not a closer). Depending on how things shake out with Shota maybe one SP. They have by even the most conservative estimate about $60M available to spend. There are fewer roster holes than any offseason in the Jed era, and more resources available than any winter save maybe the '22/'23 offseason. Not to say that the Cubs are going to have some billion dollar offseason (or even that they'll definitely go hard after Cease), but the roster lends itself to shopping pretty differently than prior winters. Much the same way that a trip to the grocery store two days after pay day is a lot different than a trip two days before.

I'm going to be a broken record about this but an offseason for a team that just won 92 games is going to be a lot different than a team that just won 83 games. A team that's more or less complete from the jump is going to operate differently than one with gaping holes at CF, 3B, and C.

The owners are floating a cap because this round of negotations they're the ones on the defensive. The league wants to make radical changes to centralize broadcast rights. The league wants to kick off expansion. The players want...incremental improvements to things like the luxury tax limit? The owners are talking about the salary cap so that they can "settle" for status quo plus favorable terms on those two hot items. It's super transparent.

It's no secret that heading into the playoffs, starting pitching was the Chicago Cubs' biggest area of concern. Initial indications from the local writers are that impact pitching will be the biggest focus this offseason, with Dylan Cease the first specific name to hit the rumor mill via Bruce Levine. Cease is generally considered to be one of the "Big 3" free agent starters this winter, along with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Cease's career has been marred by a good deal of inconsistency, but he's been a model of health (leads MLB in games started the past 5 years) and is one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the league (one of only 10 pitchers in 2025 to throw 100 IP and average more than 97 MPH on his fastball). Most days, he looks the part of a prototypical ace. While a starting pitcher set to get north of $150M is not usually what we think of for a Jed Hoyer target, the team enters 2026 with relatively few roster holes. The Cubs also have an extensive history with Cease. They initially drafted Dylan in 2014 (along with Kyle Schwarber and Justin Steele), and based on reporting from NorthsideBaseball's own Matt Trueblood the team had extensive conversations with the Padres around reacquiring Cease last spring. Expect the Cubs to be tied to a wide variety of arms this winter. But given the team's roster heading into the winter and their history with Dylan Cease, it is notable that this is the first rumor out of the chute this offseason. View full rumor

Official(ish?)

You know who I realized might be an absolute perfect fit for this roster? Alec Bohm. He is NOT a savior, he would function as a 10th man. But his skillset I think compliments the current roster extremely well and fills a lot of gaps. Consider: - Bohm is a 3B by trade, but has plenty of 1B experience. He has a little bit of DH experience too and has hit well in that role in limited time - Over the last three years Bohm has a 108 wRC+, 99 vs. RHP and 130 vs LHP. So basically he is a guy you really really want in the lineup vs. LHP, and you're fine with playing against RHP - So you'd play Bohm every day against LHP, and whether that is at 1B or DH can change fairly organically based on how much leash against LHP Busch earns - If Shaw struggles, you have a ready to go replacement. Not only do we not otherwise have a backup plan at 3b at the MLB level right now, we don't have one at Iowa either. (Pedro Ramirez might be that guy around mid season?) - If god forbid Hoerner or Swanson get hurt, Bohm could backfill via moving Shaw to 2B. This is quietly a biggy! As is the team needs a backup infielder, but because playing time is likely to be so sparse no one decent will want to sign here for just that role - It is an open secret that the Phillies don't want Bohm anymore. He's definitely available and you'd guess the trade cost wouldn't be exhorbitant Basically Bohm is good enough and established enough that you would trust him to play everyday. He has a specific skill (hitting LHP) that you're excited to use situationally. He is however not so good or so established that you have to feel obligated to run him out there everyday if he's not looking like one of your top 9. It's really tough to thread the needle of giving the kids playing time while not leaving yourself vulnerable if they fail. This feels like it accomplishes that really well.

So on the one hand, you look at this lineup and it's not great that the second best source of RHH power is either Dansby Swanson or whoever is catching that day. On the other hand. while it's not your focus here regarding handedness, it is worth noting that even without a major power threat the team should continue to be dangerous against LHP. Each of Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner, Kelly, snd Shaw had a wRC+ of at least 125 against lefties. Everyone but Shaw, who wasn't yet a big leaguer, did it in '24 as well. Add a complimentary RHH bat to the 1B/DH/RF mix (Paul Goldschmidt?) and give some of PCA's playing time against lefties to Alcantara and you've got a deep lineup for LHP to navigate. On yet another hand I mostly hate this class of FA bats. I want no part of Suarez or Alonso, and Bregman/Bichette aren't really power guys. Maybe there's a trade option worth considering (Taylor Ward??), but if we're sticking with FA either think small or go all the way for Tucker IMO. No half measures.

I hope you're wrong on Kittredge. I just don't see a situation where it makes sense to let him leave. The team probably needs 3, maybe even 4 relievers this winter? And that's legit guys not waiver wire types. Especially knowing how much Jed turns his nose up at multi-year deals for relievers, you're not going to find a better deal than Kittredge at 1/8. If the team is wanting to fill the bullpen on a shoestring, Kittredge plus a couple Caleb Thielbar sized signings is probably the way to go about it. If the team is wanting to invest in the pen more this year, then 1/8 isn’t really prohibitive as one of two or dare I say even three signinhs of guys at this level. Letting Kittredge go feels like mystery box thinking where we end up with like Emilio Pagan instead.

It's a bit tough. Because I agree I think Alcantara is very good fit to the bench and compliments the other options well. But on the other hand there's a ton of quality veteran platoon outfielders on this market but at 1B Goldschmidt is basically the only righty who's even vaguely attractive. I wonder if supply/demand ends up pushing Long onto the roster..

Yeah I read a couple of Longenhagen reports on the various Asia imports and they all sounded like they were written ahead of 2025. It may have been a one year blip. Eric did mention it was only 200ish pitches, so like the equivalent of 50-70 at bats?

This can't be right. The Rockies are apparently going to hire a normal, well qualified GM?

I don't understand why people talk about Shaw's bat like he's Austin Hedges or something

Eric Longenhagen's scouting report. The bold very much made me raise an eyebrow. We know the Cubs like that profile. I think more or less what Hot Sauce said, if you're looking for him to be deluxe Justin Turner let's talk, but he does not sound like a starting caliber bat.

I didnt realize this. And there's not a ton of prospects to add either, I'm counting maybe 5 that you could even consider? Get ready for absolutely insane levels of reliever waiver wire roulette.

Rea reminds me of Tauchman last year. "$3M for a high end fourth outfielder is an easy yes! Sure he doesn't fit on the roster anymore but you can easily get a little something back in trade!" Then I had to clean the egg off my face as he got nontendered and had to take a pay cut to latch on with the White Sox. $6M for a solid 4th/5th starter is on its face a positive expected value contract. That said if the team is wanting to let Tucker walk and level up the pitching staff (which is certainly where the vibes point) you probably care more about that roster spot than the $2-3M in surplus value Rea's club option theoretically affords you. It's not a slam dunk, but I'm going to view the Rea decision as a tea leaf for whether the team is planning to put its resources primarily towards offense or pitching this winter.

My guess would be that one of Alcantara/Long is on next year's bench, and the other is not in the org next year because of trade. Put another way I expect the bench next year to be Amaya / Alcantara / Veteran RHH 1B (Paul Goldschmidt type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type) or Amaya / Long / Veteran RHH OF (Rob Refsnyder type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type)

It's funny you mention Garver because I feel like that's probably the ideal outcome for Ballesteros, right? 30ish games behind the plate (maybe pair him with one dedicated SP?), 100ish at DH, and maybe a dozen at 1B. That's insanely valuable as you look at constructing a roster. I do think it's probably a good time for the org to really ask how comfortable they are with Mo behind the plate. Because realistically if you completely give up on having him catch he's more or less Josh Naylor. Quality player but not someone who will make you rue the day he left. In fact if you shut the door on catching right now how much daylight is there really between Mo and Jonny Long? Not nearly enough to pass up on using Ballesteros to headline a Mackenzie Gore trade that's for damn sure.