Bertz

I think it makes sense for Shota to accept but all indications are he's leaving. Maybe that will turn out to have been some weak leverage play but I'm pretty convinced.

Feel free to provide literally anything to back up your argument. Until then as usual you're basically Cosmo Kramer trying to sound smart talking about writeoffs.

This would mean he needs to sign by ay latest the first few days of the New Year

The Cubs were 6th in homeruns and 4th in ISO last year despite Wrigley playing *very* pitcher friendly. Thinking the Cubs lineup lacks for power is not recognizing the current run environment, full stop. Yes losing Tucker will hurt, though he's not a huge power guy (22 homers last year, 30 as a career high). He's a good power hitter with bonkers K/BB numbers. I think you can anticipate similar power production from Caissie, the tradeoffs are going to be strikeouts (roughly twice as many) and the need for platoon support.

I don't think Birdsell needs to be protected. He had his TJ in what, August? There's no chance he hits 90 days on an active roster if someone were to pop him in the Rule 5. I'm not as on top of McCollough's current injury (there's been so many!) but he feels pretty safe to leave off as well. Ramirez is an absolute lock to protect, I think he's a pretty unanimous top 15 prospect in the system at this point. Triantos is a lock too. His star has fallen a good bit, but it hasn't crashed. He still looks like a quality bench guy, something in the Adam Frazier/Amed Rosario neighborhood. I suspect Noland gets added, and I suspect Riley Martin gets added too. Both guys are fringey but with the number of roster spots Jed has to play with feel like they're comfortably worth it.

Between this and all the Vikings' screwiness the last few years it feels like DVOA is getting flabbergasted a lot. Makes you wonder if there's something about modern football driving it (proliferation of fourth down?).

Thinking more about this, curious what the pairing move(s) would be if they got Cease. I mentioned last week I suspect the shopping list is: - New Ace - Upside SP - 2-3 leverage relievers - RHH bat - A half dozen lottery ticket relievers It's really easy to see how this comes together if you acquire the ace via trade. Something like Mackenzie Gore ($5M), Michael King ($20M), Kazuma Okamoto ($16M), Brad Keller ($12M) and Pete Fairbanks ($9M) brings payroll neatly into that $10M under the cap neighborhood. I suspect that Gore (or Joe Ryan or whoever) can be had with mostly the Iowa overstock guys. And there are a bunch of alternatives to King, this is a great FA class to be shopping in that $15-20 AAV range. But if you sign Cease I'm not sure what the other stuff looks like because his salaryis going to be bumping $30M. That's not unworkable at all, but I just don't see the obvious best way of working around it. Specifically where does that other SP come from? Does Jed say horsefeathers it and just trade for a Gore type anyway, since that makes the $$ work out best? Is the plan to still sign the upside arm, and cover the bat and the bullpen via trade to save money? Dare I ask is there more money in the coffers than I've been accounting for? The Cease stuff is exciting, both because Cease himself is exciting and because I think the logical move is a Gore/Ryan/Cabrera type to pair with him and that's ths sort of blow the doors off the hinges offseason we don't see around here.

It's not a dealbreaker, but a one year deal in the rotation is not great. Like that's my biggest issue if Shota accepts the qualifying offer. Not worry about how he'll be in 2026 (I suspect pretty good) but that specter of having to replace three starters next winter. IMO pay the extra prospect cost to turn from a rental to Ryan/Gore/Cabrera/Alcantara. There's also some Bubic-specific stuff to consider. Yet another low velo lefty, the fact that his return to the rotation aas cut short due tona shoulder injury, and the fact that he has that large gap between his ERA and his peripherals (we already have a lot of that going around).

Listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast. A lot of it is basically reiterating their article from Friday, but still interesting to hear the vibes. They were pretty positive. Both guys have some trepidation because of history but seem convinced that the Cubs are shopping more top of market than they have been. The Dylan Cease stuff was especially illuminating. Sharma said they "keep hearing his name" and it's coming "from all directions." They also mentioned that Jed's talking a good bit with Scott Boras, which outside of Bellinger (and Boyd apparently) he hasn't done a ton of the past few years.

The vibe I get is that Jed has wanted to move towards a more stuff/strikeouts oriented pitching staff for a while, and that through a combo or resource management and comparative advantage just keeps ending up with these soft tossing lefties. And it's *clearly* top of mind this winter. Like there was a David Laurilia column last week with a bunch of people gushing about Kyle Hendricks, and even there Jed had a part that was basically like "yeah yeah Kyle's great but we've gotta have more strikeouts to take luck out of the equation." So I suspect this winter with a good amount of resources to throw at two rotation spots, the team will hunt for more velocity. That said Suarez is on paper just as good as Valdez and Cease, and because of that lack of velo is looking at a lot less money. The various FA predictions seem to have Suarez getting Kevin Gausman money (5/110) while Cease and Valdez seem to be looking at Aaron Nola money (7/175). Might be hard to pass that up. Jed took Marcus Stroman over Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray under similar circumstances a few years back. I also wonder if Jed adds some velo in trade if he will more likely consider Suarez. Like if you trade for Alcantara or Cabrera from the Marlins does that make up for Suarez? Is a guy who throws 97 and a guy who throws 91 better or worse than two guys who throw 94 (say Framber Valdez and Joe Ryan)?

Even if it didn't break have to think he needs at least a week and the Bears are getting Mason Rudolph next weekend.

Doesn't really affect the Cubs. but always good to get the market moving. 5 years for a tubby first baseman is also a positive signal that this isn't going to be bad players' market.

Last year Colin Rea was our either 6th or 7th starter entering spring training (Assad got hurt early so a bit hard to say if Rea was ahead or behind him on paper) and made 27 starts. The Cubs need to have probably 7 or 8 guys you'd feel comfortable starting a game on April 1st, and then Steele and Wiggins as later season depth on top of that.

This is random but it's something I've been meaning to check on for a while and never got around to it before nos. These are the league ERAs for each of the Cubs' affiliates. These do NOT account for ballpark, which is worth noting because for instance MB is more pitcher friendly than the league as a whole. Carolina League (Myrtle Beach): 3.99 Midwest League (South Bend): 4.10 Southern League (Knoxville): 3.69 International League (Iowa): 4.67 (!!!) MLB: 4.16 I think these are helpful benchmarks to keep on hand, especially for Iowa. Things are so out of whack in the IL that someone with an ERA around 4 at AAA might actually be a worthwhile callup. I know for me that is taking a lot of getting used to.

My read is that the shopping list is: - One big time SP. Someone who would be our ace the day they're acquired. Dylan Cease, Joe Ryan, Mackenzie Gore, etc. - One lesser SP that the team thinks Tommy Hottovy can work his magic on. Maybe that's Shota, maybe it's Michael King, maybe it's one of the less expensive asian imports - Two or possibly even three low end closers. Similar to how at the end of last year Craig could feel comfortable going to any of Palencia, Kittredge, or Keller on any given day, I suspect the plan is a closer committee to enter next season - One right handed bat. I personally really want this guy to play 1B/3B, but from the vibes I suspect the focus is on the bat itself, and where he can play is a secondary consideration - A backup infielder. If the RHH bat isn't a 3B, the team needs a backup infielder. I'd set your sites pretty low, you can't expect someone good to volunteer to come in and sit behind our current infielders. We're talking the same Jon Berti/Vidal Brujan types as last winter - A small army of depth relievers. Especially if they can get guys with options and stash them at Iowa

The Athletic had a blurb on this this AM So expect a couple of arms that are at least closer-adjacent as opposed to one big fish. I will say if this is the plan I have no idea how Kittredge at $9M didn't make sense to keep but whatever.

Kepley over Alcantara is the silliest case of shiny new toy syndrome I've seen in a long time

The Athletic this AM threw some cold water on the Imai stuff. Though they talked up Dylan Cease and Edward Cabrera so it was very much a taketh/giveth situation.

If you get bored and want to start thinking about how the Cubs can use those open 40 man spots

There's wiggle room on all of these, but assuming Shota declines his offer and signs elsewhere the Cubs will have 5 picks in the top 100ish. Something close to this: 23rd 65th 75th 76th 100th

Yeah I think if we're looking to take a big swing at a FA arm I'd probably want to do Imai or Cease or not bother. There does seem to be some implication that Imai is going to be that guy. There's the pitch profile fit you've laid out here. There has of course been the drumbeat about the Pacific Rim pipeline. There is this outright mention from Levine. The Athletic this AM mentioned that the Cubs were going ot be swimming in deeper FA waters than normal: I'll say one thing I don't love is that ZiPS kind of hates him. It's not the end of the world, I'd say it's almost certainly because of his pre 2025 walk issues, but if we're giving a SP a 9 figure deal I tend to want every arrow pointing in the right direction.

I'm expecting a roughly Owen Caissie's rookie year to look a lot like Michael Busch's. 120ish wRC+ with the aid of some platoon help, and a couple of deep funks over the course of the year.

There is a bit of a delicate balance with the kids. On the one on paper they have the skillsets to slide right in and fill the current holes on the position player side of the roster. On the other hand there's probably not enough plate appearances to put everybody in the best position to succeed. Especially considering how much redundancy is created by these guys likely needing to platoon early on. So broad strokes I agree give the kids the job, but I think it's time to cash in one of Mo/Caissie. IMO the play on the position player side is this - Give Alcantara the RHH 4th outfielder job - Use one of Caissie/Mo in the inevitable SP trade this winter. The other gets the open DH/RF job - Add a veteran RHH 1B/3B - Jonny Long hangs out at Iowa working on his non 1B defense, and is the first phone call if any corner guy gets hurt or struggles excessively I've thought about this a lot and I think this is the best way to thread the needle between giving the kids their well earned shots, maximizing their development, and not creating too much exposure for the big league lineup.

FWIW Ken Rosenthal has an article this AM saying he also expects Shota (and Brandon Woodruff) to decline. So this really seems to be happening.