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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    The nice thing about something like a barrel is it's a process stat. Generally dongs are ~half of barrels. So Kevin should probably be closer to 8 than 12, and I'd guess that gap is the silly AAA environment. But even at 8 we're talking a 39 homer pace. Like the contact numbers are definitely a problem, full stop. But a Christopher Morel type bat from a legitimate CF is an impact player. Or put another way I don't see any reason to think Alcantara can't be what Adolis Garcia was in his prime. There's definitely a fine line between patience and passitivity, and at the top of the ladder swinging 37% of the time like Mathis leans towards the latter. But also it's A ball and guys tend to not miss close, so if you have a good eye you probably should be well below an acceptable MLB rate. Like you're not going to lose money betting against every RHH 1B prospect, but complaining about what Mathis is doing at the plate right now feels kind of
  2. Bertz
    Statcast minor league search has barrels. Kevin Alcantara is at 16, which is 3rd at the AAA level and would be tied for 11th at the big league level. His barrel rate of 25% is also 3rd in MiLB and would also be 3rd in the majors. He's always hit the piss out of the ball, and always had contact issues. This year he's basically traded Dansby Swanson levels of swing and miss with a too high groundball rate for Christopher Morel levels of swing and miss with a great groundball rate. I think it's probably a good trade, and his contact numbers are slowly trending back up so I wouldn't slam the door on the possibility of us having our cake and eating it too.
  3. Bertz
    He's got an above average contact rate and a 16% walk rate so this is a pretty clear case of being in a lot of deep counts. 4.2 pitches per plate appearance.
  4. Bertz
    Among the many impressive things he's doing, Cole Mathis running a ~25% groundball rate is probably the craziest.
  5. Bertz
    59.5 homer pace by the way
  6. Bertz
    105 win pace by the way
  7. Bertz
    I wonder if we get word on Thielbar soon. It sounded like when they IL'd him they were hoping for something close to a minimum lenth stay, which would have him back next weekend.
  8. Bertz
    Situation worth monitoring: Ronald Acuna left tonight's Braves game with a hamstring injury and we play Atlanta in Atlanta in a week and a half
  9. Bertz
    I'm torn between being excited for a good thing and being suspicious of the timing. Why didn't they just do this over the Monday system-wide off day?
  10. Bertz
  11. Bertz
    No Nico. Wouldn't be surprised if they give him until the Reds game Monday night.
  12. Bertz
    That's just because of Pete. In pretty much any org besides here or Boston he's a no doubt CF. This is what FG said about him over the offseason Here's MLB And here's Keith Law
  13. Bertz
    Do we know where Will Sanders is? Feels clearly injury at this point but curious about degree.
  14. Bertz
    It hasn't translated into boffo production yet but Mathis' peripheral numbers are sterling even after the jump to SB.
  15. Bertz
    I know he's not his brother but Alexis Hernandez is supposed to be relatively tooled up, right? Like if he starts producing we should get excited?
  16. Bertz
    I know the contact numbers have dropped into the danger zone, and AAA is very hitter friendly, but Kevin Alcantara is a 23 year old plus (plus plus?) defensive centerfielder and currently on a 54 homer pace. Like even if he's rookie year Christopher Morel at the plate the conversation feels a hell of a lot different when you remember that his glove is ~20 runs per year better?
  17. Bertz
    Triantos with his resurgence is another wrinkle to this conversation. Especially because skillset wise he's probably the guy among the four you'd first choose to fill the exact role Matt Shaw's currently in.
  18. Bertz
    Yeah Shaw's rest of season ZiPS projection right now is a 109 wRC+. Him being a 120 guy at maturity with +5 defense seems pretty reasonable. And that's to your point essentially Ian Happ. I'd also say that as a lefty Pedro is the easiest roster fit among the young infielders.
  19. Bertz
    .
  20. Bertz
    Good, I prefer getting Palencia an outing at Iowa before coming up. You just know if they activated him straight off we'd immediately play a tight 1 run game today with no margin for rust
  21. Bertz
    Very true, I'm currently writing Steele and Brown into the 2027 rotation in pencil with Rea returning as the #6, but it wouldn't take a crazy set of circumstances for the rotation heading into the winter to be Cabrera, Rea, and the shrug emoji. I'm realllllly hoping Boyd takes the QO, that would make things a lot cleaner.
  22. Bertz
    IMO hard not to feel good with what we currently know running Boyd/Shota/Cabrera out there in a playoff series. That said we saw last year that there's no guarantee a guy doesn't stumble (Boyd) or go fully down (Horton) at like mile 26. You definitely go get a SP this summer. I'd probably lean towards someone with some control as opposed to the guy who's best *right now*. With Horton ostensibly dead you probably need at least two SPs this winter, maybe even three. Get some of that shopping done early, especially with all the uncertainty the CBA expiring is going to bring.
  23. Bertz
  24. Bertz
    I know some of the TV stuff changed mid-offseason and that surely affected payrolls, but I'll never understand why a team with such limited money to spend allocated nearly their entire FA budget to a guy whose shoulder is hamburger meat. Especially since they're consistently able to spin pitching straw into gold.
  25. Bertz
    Yeah there's probably some luck there. But there's some stuff that's not too: - They are above average at pulling fly balls. Not elite lack last year but still above average - It's generally a fast team that's aggressive on their feet, which nets you some extra bases (Shaw's double yesterday for instance) - Wrigley has I believe in aggregate played hitter friendly thus far. Obviously that's a knock on the repeatability of the offense's topline production, but on a team level any credit you take from the offense you have to equally give back to the pitching staff I'd guess if you de-lucked them they'd still be top 2 but closer to the Braves at 3 than the Dodgers at 1?
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