Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Two guys the Cubs added last offseason made the all star team and Kelly came damn close to making it three
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Okay yeah consider that dam busted What a terrible 10 minutes for Mets fans lol
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Hopefully the dam breaks now
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Cubs batters last year took 6162 plate appearances. That is essentially 10 full time hitters plus a 2025 Justin Turner on top for good measure. The Cubs can, even in a world where we assume no lengthy injuries, sign an everyday 3B and still give two of the kids semi-everyday at bats (think what Shaw got last year). When you consider the inevitable injuries it's relatively safe to assume they can balance a third one.
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6874240/2025/12/08/cubs-will-pursue-high-leverage-relief/ Thank god, Sahadev to the rescue Hell yeah, sing it Jed Uhhhh.... Alright alright back on track *sigh* I'll say this does not sound as spartan as Ryne Stanek and a bunch of NRIs. It DOES sound like Brad Keller or Pete Fairbanks and a bunch of NRIs, but I think Matt's source is probably a bit more bearish than where we're going to actually net out.
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I think it's also fair to point out that Kantrovitz got hired in October of '19. So it wasn't just the generally disruptive force of COVID, it was that on top of doing it in a new org.
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Yeah honestly the two easiest ways to reconcile what we're consistently hearing are: - Payroll is a little higher than we're expecting (nothing crazy...an extra 10-15 mil would do the trick) - The team has all these balls in the air but in the end one of their three needs is not actually going to get addressed in FA Hopefully if it is the latter case handle it via trade rather than just punting on it completely.
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It feels somewhat clear that the team's FA pref list is Imai followed by King followed by Gallen. What isn't clear is what would it take to push them into the trade market as opposed to free agency. Especially because every bat we've heard about (sans a random Jo Adell nod over a month ago) has been to guys who will make a healthy salary. And the idea of signing both a FA bat and arm of substance from here undermines our assumptions about payroll.
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Apparently Heyman is blowing a lot of smoke about the Cubs and Imai. Given the Heyman/Boras stuff you could read that one of two ways.
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Bingo. There is nothing immediately behind Dansby/Hoerner/Shaw. If Caissie fails there's Mo, or Alcantara, or Long. Even after a hypothetical Alex Bregman signing Shaw is less redundant than the lesser of Caissie/Mo.
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I'm also not a huge Murakami fan but he is a 26 year old who projects to 4 WAR/600 PAs. So that contact risk is scary but also why he's looking at $180M and not twice that.
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Murakami doesn't fit this, but if you add a RHH who can cover 3B and don't subsequently deal Shaw away you've got probably the ideal balance of giving runway to the kids while insulating yourself from the downside of them struggling.
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Sahadev Sharma has name checked Stanek as well, so there definitely seems to be something here. That said he can't be the only guy from here. Stanek screams out as a good buy low candidate but this bullpen needs *at least* three relievers you feel good about closing a game on day 1 next season. The team can miss me with the handwringing about roster room. The bullpen right now is Palencia, Maton, and six open spots. Let's hold two of those for guys who end up on the outside looking in for the SP mix (e.g Rea and Brown). Let's hold one for whichever minor league vet shows out most in ST. That's still three openings. The team last year correctly identified the need for depth and had Daniel Palencia open the year as the first guy up at Iowa. Hodge should be on exactly the same track. The shopping list should be two Staneks and a Keller unless/until they make trade(s) to significantly improve the crop of optionable arms at Iowa.
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I thought Levine's article felt more speculative and not like he was reporting something substantial, so my takeaway here is much more focused on the Cerami/Okamoto bit.
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The agent still thought a bunch would happen before Christmas, here's the quote Although for this to work, and Imai to be the why, he has to sign pretty much as soon as he finishes his team visits.
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I was reading Bob Nightengale's (I know I know!) winter meetings preview and he quoted a GM who said he expects it to be a pretty slow meetings. He said he expected a ton of rumors and smoke but most of the actual moves to come in the two weeks after. I wonder if Imai is a bottleneck on the pitching. half of things for exactly the reason you mention.
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Gun to my head the team ends up with King. I feel like that's had the most smoke from the most corners this winter. What I'm most curious about is what type of bat we're looking at if the team signs one of these FAs in the $20-25M range. - Is the idea that, even if we don't view them that way, someone like King or Gallen is "splashy" enough that they feel comfortable just doing a Rob Refsnyder type? - Is there a little more payroll available than we've been conditioned to think, and they can do a mid tier bat even on top of a $20M+ SP and the relief support they need? - Is there a low salary trade target they're eying? - Is there a plan to move some salary out? E.g. Taillon out, Gallen + Gore + Okamoto in
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Cubs Interested In Third Baseman Eugenio Suarez
Bertz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Geno Suarez is, by a very wide margin, the free agent I want to stay the furthrst away from this winter. That said I can't remember a time where Romero was right about anything big, so I'm not sweating this. -
As expected, ChatGPT is wrong: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zac-gallen/19291/splits-tool?position=P&splitArr=266&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2002-01-01&endDate=2025-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1
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Japanese pitchers aren't a mystery box anymore. We have the same absurd levels of detail on their velocity/movement/angle/command as any domestic pitcher.
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Ferrer is really good too. Like not too far off of Daniel Palencia if we're being honest.
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Chicago Cubs Have "Renewed Interest" In Alex Bregman
Bertz replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it's worth noting that at the deadline Gore was pitching MUCH better, came with an extra playoff run's worth of control, and Shaw had not 111 wRC+'d his way through August/September, and the Cubs weren't willing to include Shaw then. I think I'm with Cuzi that it's Gore+ for Shaw not the other way around. -
Me to Cristian Hernandez apparently
