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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    There's wiggle room on all of these, but assuming Shota declines his offer and signs elsewhere the Cubs will have 5 picks in the top 100ish. Something close to this: 23rd 65th 75th 76th 100th
  2. Bertz
    Yeah I think if we're looking to take a big swing at a FA arm I'd probably want to do Imai or Cease or not bother. There does seem to be some implication that Imai is going to be that guy. There's the pitch profile fit you've laid out here. There has of course been the drumbeat about the Pacific Rim pipeline. There is this outright mention from Levine. The Athletic this AM mentioned that the Cubs were going ot be swimming in deeper FA waters than normal: I'll say one thing I don't love is that ZiPS kind of hates him. It's not the end of the world, I'd say it's almost certainly because of his pre 2025 walk issues, but if we're giving a SP a 9 figure deal I tend to want every arrow pointing in the right direction.
  3. Bertz
    I'm expecting a roughly Owen Caissie's rookie year to look a lot like Michael Busch's. 120ish wRC+ with the aid of some platoon help, and a couple of deep funks over the course of the year.
  4. Bertz
    There is a bit of a delicate balance with the kids. On the one on paper they have the skillsets to slide right in and fill the current holes on the position player side of the roster. On the other hand there's probably not enough plate appearances to put everybody in the best position to succeed. Especially considering how much redundancy is created by these guys likely needing to platoon early on. So broad strokes I agree give the kids the job, but I think it's time to cash in one of Mo/Caissie. IMO the play on the position player side is this - Give Alcantara the RHH 4th outfielder job - Use one of Caissie/Mo in the inevitable SP trade this winter. The other gets the open DH/RF job - Add a veteran RHH 1B/3B - Jonny Long hangs out at Iowa working on his non 1B defense, and is the first phone call if any corner guy gets hurt or struggles excessively I've thought about this a lot and I think this is the best way to thread the needle between giving the kids their well earned shots, maximizing their development, and not creating too much exposure for the big league lineup.
  5. Bertz
    FWIW Ken Rosenthal has an article this AM saying he also expects Shota (and Brandon Woodruff) to decline. So this really seems to be happening.
  6. Bertz
    Alcantara is as good of a prospect as Caissie. And I'd bet if we had something like WAR for AAA that accounted for hitting, baserunning, and defense they'd be damn close in 2025 Iowa production. He gets less fanfair because his talent is less concentrated into dongs. Especially with his long levers he'd probably be on the PCA/Shaw/Amaya timeline of getting his ass thoroughly kicked until Julyish if he was given a full time job. He struggled with right handed sliders st AAA, MLB is going to really punish that weakness initially. The fourth outfielder talk is less about that being all he'll ever be capable of and more an acknowledgement that that's probably the softest way for him to break into MLB. On top of that it's a need at the MLB level. PCA obviously has deep struggles against LHP, Happ's just okay against them, and both Caissie/Mo struggled mightily against them at Iowa last year. But by this time next year it's reasonably likely the bat will have progressed enough we'll be happy to hand him an everyday job.
  7. Bertz
    This feels like a bad idea for Shota so I'd be a bit surprised if this is more than posturing. 3/$45M feels like what Shota would be looking at *without* the draft picks attached. I'm very worried about what those picks hanging around his neck will do to his market. But if the Cubs can get an extra 2nd rounder out of this whole situation and Shota can manage a contract elsewhere that isn't a bummer that would be a huge win-win for both sides. Also, as much as I think Shota's a good bet for a bounceback in '26, him accepting the QO does materially lower the ceiling for this offseason IMO. There's only so many places to upgrade this club. The three realistic ways to make this team (on paper) not just as good as last year but better are; - Re-sign Tucker and trade for an impact SP - Sign an impact SP and also trade for an impact SP - Add an impact SP and also build a bullpen of doom If you believe the beat writers the team doesn't seem super interested in 1 or 3, so if you want a "hell yeah" type of offseason you probably need to root for Shota to head for greener pastures.
  8. Bertz
    Don't know if this got posted but apparently (via BN) these were Jed's full comments w/r/t the offense
  9. Bertz
    I like this, I mentioned Adell last week https://northsidebaseball.com/forums/topic/56044-cubs-2025-season-reviewoffseason-preview-thread/page/20/#findComment-4003548 I think the ideal RHH bat for this team is a 1B/3B, but Adell's bat is fun as hell and he's athletic enough that a competent team might be able to turn him into an adequate CFer.
  10. Bertz
    Would put his signing deadline the first week of the new year
  11. Bertz
    Yeesh thanks for the free second rounder but this does not feel like a good idea
  12. Bertz
    Initial FG Projections have the Cubs position players at 26.7 WAR. That is currently 5th in the league, and if you look back historically the last three years would rank 9th, 7th, and 6th respectively. The Cubs currently projected 11.1 pitching WAR is would rank 24th, 25th, and 24th the last three years. I don't know why we're getting concerned about calling a spade a spade.
  13. Bertz
    *chanting* PONCE, PONCE, PONCE!
  14. Bertz
    Good read on Caleb's time to throw numbers as well as the impact of drops
  15. Bertz
    The both good and bad of this offseason is there's not a right answer. There's some stuff that I do think is straight up a bad idea (Looking at you, Geno Suarez), but broadly it's vibes. Do you want to a Top 5 position player group and an okayish pitching staff like in '25? Easy peasy, sign a bat and some relievers, trade for a SP. Do you want a more balanced team, top 10 on both sides of the ball? Easy peasy, add a quality bench guy or two and otherwise focus your resources on pitching. Does it matter if you do your shopping via FA or trade? Only a bit. There's probably not enough money to do all your shopping in FA, and you really ought to move one of the Iowa 4, but generally there's some freedom to take what the market offers.
  16. Bertz
    GM Meetings start today. So don't expect the hot stove to immediately start roaring but I'd expect this week is when we'll start actually getting rumors and it won't be so quiet. For instance Jed said the Kyle Tucker talks started in earnest at last year's GM Meetings.
  17. Bertz
    Good list. Count me as a +1 on Soto and Weaver especially. Some other names I like: Hunter Harvey: The injury history is a mile long, but if when he's healthy he'sa first division closer. I suspect if we offered up the closer role he'd take a pillow deal to come here Steven Matz: He's probably going to go to a bad team and give starting one last try? But he's been good since getting demoted to relief, and even when he qas struggling as a SP he was a guy that excelled the first tims through the order before falling off. I bet Hottovy could turn him into a multi-inning weapon Taylor Rogers: His results were poor after the trade but his peripherals were stellar. I think there's a very good argument that giving him a little more time with Hottovy will pay some real dividends
  18. Bertz
    Looking at this seems more or less that if the Bears want to make the playoffs they need do at least one, maybe both of: - Get to 10 wins - Beat the 49ers in week 17
  19. Bertz
    If nothing else I love that these guys are locking in that they will sign by Christmas. Pair it with this winter not having a generational talent up top that's going to hold everything else up and this *should* be a healthy paced offseason. Famous last words I'm sure.
  20. Bertz
    They won't do it because Rome's dad clearly has no chill, but a really funny bit would be for Caleb's dad to go on social this week and complain about how he didn't get a single target after catching two passes including a touchdown last week.
  21. Bertz
    I just think the juxtaposition is funny
  22. Bertz
    Shortly before the Bears got it to 17 I was texting a buddy that this was like the exact opposite of the Saints game. That was a win that felt like horsefeathers because Caleb played like ass, this was a (I was assuming) loss that Caleb balled the hell out for.
  23. Bertz
    Might depend if he will settle for two years. Like of you look at the top FAs list from MLBTR https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html There's four relievers who they expect to get three+ year deals: Edwin Diaz (4/82), Devin Williams (4/68) Robert Suarez (3/48) and Keller (3/36). After that there's a bunch of guys expected to get two years and 10ish million a year. My guess is those latter guys are firmly on the table but 3+ years or 15+ per year probably aren't?
  24. Bertz
    It's not the same people, and I don't think anyone is being unreasonable, but it's very funny to me that the two conversations happening on this page are dunking on the Cubs for not having any velocity in their rotation and "Let's sign Brandon Woodruff".
  25. Bertz
    I would totally give Jeimer Candelario a spot. Eguy Rosario and Juan Yepez probably make some sense too? And of course too many pitchers to count.
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