Bertz

Something interesting Sahadev Sharma brought up on his podcast: Alex Bregman would have actually hit more homers at Wrigley than he did at Fenway this past year. Philly and Sacramento are the only parks he would have been expected to hit more. A bit surprising because I think the vibe is that he's, while not as extreme, in the Paredes/Bellinger mold.

It's not substantial enough for its own rumor, but related to the smoke around Bregman is this from Jeff Passan's Winter Meetings preview this AM So the interest apparently isn't just in Bregman as a one-off.

You've made this point previously but something worth noting is there wasn't even a whiff of Kyle Tucker news before the start of last year's meetings. The expectation was the team was going to focus on pitching, and Max Fried sounded like the top realistic target. So while we think we know the state of play it's good to keep an open mind to new info. That said based on what we think we do know I suspect it's going to be a fairly quiet meetings for the Cubs, I think they come away with a reliever or three and that's it. My gut says Imai is at the top of their SP wish list right now and that bidding likely won't be settled for a few weeks, which makes it hard to move on too much else. We likely get more clarity on direction as pieces come off the board, but I expect that to be the main takeaway.

Did we ever find out what Zeglin missed all year for? But yeah the deck is stacked against a guy who will play next year at 26 and is likely going to still open in A ball. Even with what sounds like a pretty insane changeup.

The calculus for me involves a good bit more confidence in Shaw, but yeah I don't have a lot of interest in this. If you're willing to spend approaching $30M per year on Bregman why not just go up slightly to the $35M range and retain Tucker? Or add an extra year or two and add Bichette? I suspect though that this is merely a backup plan. Based on all the chatter it sounds like the team really is intending to pull down a free agent SP of major substance. If the team is currently allocating something like $25M to a FA SP and $10M to a righty platoon bat, it's not hard to see dominoes falling in a way where a pivot to e.g. Mackenzie Gore and Alex Bregman makes sense. Like you it still wouldn't be my top choice, but I understand the consideration.

I guess a few things make me not worried about it 1. I do really think the team should move one of Mo or Caissie this winter. Even if they get their SP in FA do a Michael Busch trade from the other end or something. But I think there's a lot of redundancy there, and if you commit to one this winter a lot of those "where is everybody gonna fit" worries start to fade away quickly 2. Teo's glove is a joke but it's not completely unplayable. The Dodgers have back to back rings running him out there everyday in RF because DH was spoken for. I think something like what they did with Seiya last year, 70/30ish between DH and outfield, is probably fine 3. Two of the last three seasons Teo has not played at a level commensurate with everyday playing time. So I think it's fair to give him shortside platoon duty and make him earn more from there. If he hits like he did in '24 we're in classic "good problem to have" territory

The Cubs currently have exactly 1 player in their outfield/1B/DH mix who you can confidently expect to hit left handed pitching.

A couple things on Imai that have been rolling around in my head - The Imai rumor mill seems to be following the same trajectory as the Shota Imanaga one from two years ago. Whenever he's written about broadly it's profuse with praise, whenever a specific team is talked about it's like "eh we're not huge fans" or "eh we don't have the cash" - Jeff Passan said that Imai might sign at the winter meetings, but generally with these high profile imports they sign a few days before their posting window closes. I mentioned a few days ago that would suck because the FA SP market is expected to pop off over the next week. So I like seeing Levine mention trades because it does feel like if you're Jed timing probably dictates you need to sign a non Imai SP next week or juggle him against trade alternatives as we approach the new year - Ken Rosenthal's notes article this morning, primarily about Teo Hernandez and Imai, was co-written with Patrick Mooney. This made me raise an eyebrow especially after the Cubs were barely talked about - One of the Athletic podcasts after the GM meetings stuck with me. They were talking about how different the vibes were and made a comment like "and hell Jed's actually talking to Scott Boras this year". Boras' roster this winter is mostly bats, with Cease, Gallen, and Imai as the main exceptions Nothing groundbreaking, just stuff that's catching my eye.

Given that his contract is fairly underwater, those deferrals actually probably make the financials easy. Dodgets hold onto those deferred dollars, other team takes on Teo's "real" money and gives up something of a little value. Assad for Teo + that money kicked in sounds pretty reasonable for both sides?

I wouldn't think so. Their rotation is pretty full. They'd probably love a good swing arm or someone they could stash at AAA, but Jamo doesn't feel like a good fit for their roster right now.

Ken Rosenthal notes this AM that while the Dodgers are not full on shopping Teo, they're talking about him with teams. He's one of the better lefty mashing power bats in the league right now, and his contract is very much mid sized. The outfield defense is a disaster and he provides no coverage at 1B, but offensively he's a fairly perfect fit.

I think a good expectation for Caissie (or Mo) that toes the line between optimistic and realistic is something like Michael Busch's rookie year. Michael Busch put up a roughly 120 wRC+ as a rookie, and that game with the benefit of significant platoon support. Busch, like Caissie, took two go arounds at AAA. Busch, like Caissie, improved significantly his second go around. Busch, like Caissie, very much felt like he had mastered the level when he finally got his cup of coffee at the MLB level. Unlike Caissie, Busch was able to get his K rate under 20% in his second go around, which led to him being a tier better as a hitter at AAA. That said I think that is balanced, hopefully more than balanced, by being three years older at the same career step. But Caissie just being 1 for 1 a Kyle Tucker replacement is probably something like a 95th percentile outcome. It's not impossible but if we're already seeding expectations there then this highly petulant fanbase is going to eat him alive. Let's not do that.

via Sharma this AM So I'm presuming they didn't want to add that 7th year

I actually like this idea a lot. Eric Longenhagen's scouting report makes it sound like he's a hell of a defender, strong baserunner, and has good raw power. So even if the hit tool takes a major beating on the trip across the pacific that's a guy that can help you win in a lot of different ways. I'd be terrified to hand him a starting job, but to nip at Matt Shaw's heels and provide some insurance if a middle infielder gets hurt? Hell yeah. I do think ideally a Song signing would come with a trade, as there are only so many at bats to go around. Right now on the position player side we are looking at: - The 8 returning everyday hitters from last year - Amaya as the backup C - A TBD veteran right handed bat (there has not been a lot of clarity on what they're looking for beyond handedness) - Three of the Caissie/Ballesteros/Alcantara/Long quartet Song would likely take one of those three slots earmarked for the kids. That's not necessarily a problem, his skillset doesn't overlap any of there's all that much. But I don’t like the idea of two of the kids having to be banished to Iowa at all times. So if e.g. Caissie gets dealt for a SP and the teams adds Song, great! If the team adds Song and now Caissie's got to continue away toiling at Iowa despite OPSing .950 I'm going to scream.

I like Ponce. Gives off the strongest Matt Boyd vibes of anyone in this year's FA class. That said Shota taking the QO killed my interest in him. With two open rotation spots you can speculate like this, not with just one.

The team desperately needed some depth at SS so not a shocker

Yeah and the idea of planning to give both Caissie and Mo siginficant runway also lends itself away from the likelihood of a trade. The timing on Imai makes makes me nervous on the SP front. Because I could see a situation where he's now plan A and King is plan B. But if Imai's not signing until closer to end of month and all the domestic guys are expected to start coming off the board quickly over the next week and a haIf coinciding with the Winter Meetings that feels like a dangerous game of musical chairs.

Another thing on this front that made me raise an eyebrow. The Cubs don't get mentioned a single time in this article from Passan Jed has had plenty of instances of being super stealthy on the trade front, but man all the smoke is that he's planning to do the heavy lifting via FA this winter.

*clears throat in the direction of Ben Brown*

Not going to get worked up over relievers, but not having to give Williams a fourth year feels like it should have been a go.

Except for the 2020/2021 offseason right before the selloff, Jed has added at one player every offseason who had been worth 3+ WAR the year before: '21/'22 - Stroman at 3.5 WAR '22/'23 - Swanson at 6.6 WAR '23/'24 - Bellinger at 4.4 WAR '24/'25 - Tucker at 4.2 WAR I'll be honest I don't expect that explicit streak to continue this winter, there are only so many 3+ WAR guys who feel likr a decent fit on this roster. But for as conservative as he's been Jed has made at least one splashy move every winter. Smart money IMO is for two of the moves to be in line with what you've got above and a third that's well north of that level. So like Gallen, Refsnyder, and Devin Williams. Or Gallen, Finnegan, and Okamoto. Or Finnegan, Refsnyder, and Imai.

I listened to Ken Rosenthal's podcast this AM. Nothing Cubs specific but he did talk a lot about the market broadly: - The SP free agent market is going to move at a good clip over the next two weeks. It'll likely be picked over by the time the winter meetings are over - Notable exception to the above is Imai. Because of the logistics specific to him and his posting window, he's not going to sign until closer to Christmas - Orioles, Braves, and Yankees were teams mentioned in the high end SP market. Giants and Red Sox (post Gray) are likely going to hang out more mid-market. Cubs and Mets didn't really get brought up here, I assume because both have been very transparent they're playing in these waters so it's not news? - Trades are likely going to be back burnered until free agency has progressed more - Expect a bunch of smoke around Tarik Skubal, Freddie Peralta, and Joe Ryan but for them to not ultimately go anywhere. The other frequent names, the Edward Cabreras of the world, are more likely to actually be moved

Finnegan is kind of the anti Helsley. Pretty mid career and an incredible cup of coffee with the Tigers. I'm highly skeptical that >50% splitters is a thing you can successfully do permanently. So I think my interest would hinge on whether he takes 1 year to sign or 2. MLBTR has him at 2 but I suspect he's borderline.

The poor 1H performance of the 2024 pen is a point in favor of bullpen nihilism, not against. Alzolay and Merryweather were certified monsters in 2023, and Neris' 2023 ERA overstated his level of impact but he still projected for for a 3.90 ERA coming into the season. The Cubs had three high quality late inning options coming into the season, two had their arms explode and the 3rd lost the strikezone. It sucks but I don't think it teaches you anything except that attrition is a horsefeathers.

I think several things are true: - The Cubs are very good at finding undervalued relievers - Because of the volatility, the bullpen is probably the least efficient place to put a marginal dollar on a baseball team - Acquiring relievers isn't totally random. More resources tends to improve reliability and stuff, even if not by as much as you'd expect - The Cubs *full season* numbers have not been especially impressive for any bullpen in the Jed era. In '21/'22 that was because of trade deadline selloffs, since then it's been because the unit has struggled early each year - The bullpen coming into the winter was practically empty. Palencia, Hodge (who ideally starts next season at Iowa), several quality long relief options, and a couple of Iowa lottery tickets - Because the Cubs' roster is already fairly complete, there's not a lot of upgrade opportunities apart from the bullpen All told the Cubs should spend significantly more on the bullpen than they have historically. They need both depth and impact talent. At the same time we don't need to live and die with every signing. The margins between a Ryan Helsley and a Pete Fairbanks and a Brad Keller are nominal. Think in terms of tiers not specific names.