Jump to content
North Side Baseball

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    13,314

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    37

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    It's *probably* just a slump, but it's worth noting that this is by a slim margin the worst slump of his Cubs career. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-busch/26319/graphs?position=NP&statArr=50&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2024&end=2026&rtype=mult&gt1=22&dStatArray= His bat speed is down and his groundball rate are up, both bad things but I think we still need more runway before they hit a sample size we worry about.
  2. Bertz
    The Boston Red Sox have gotten a 57 wRC+ out of their 2B this year and a 40 out of their 3B. Jed needs to torment Breslow until he sends Payton Tolle our way for Shaw or Ramirez.
  3. Bertz
    This is so interesting to me. Is this pure SSS or is there something about hanging out in the 9 spot that's getting him pitched like he's Bryce Harper?
  4. Bertz
    Ty Southisene had another triple, his ISO is almost into triple diggies. Not quite as egregious as Mathis but he should probably be at SB too. Maybe bump him up in a ~month with Hartshorn?
  5. Bertz
    I saw this mentioned elsewhere and admittedly my first reaction was an eye roll, but why not BJ Murray for the last bench spot? - Craig barely uses that spot, so you don't want to put an actual prospect there - Ostensibly it's only use is to have a viable infielder in reserve in a game where you've swapped Shaw out mid-game - Clearly Kingery is not bringing a gold glove to the table. He's a better athlete but clearly the lack of experience is hurting him - Murray's 2024 killed his prospect shine, but you'd expect a decent at bat from him. Certainly better than Kingery, and worth noting that he'd generally be called on to face relievers with big platoon splits Kingery provides baserunning value Murray doesnt, he also provides coverage at 2B Kingery doesn't, but still feels like we could squeeze a smidge more out of that roster spot without expending any resources?
  6. Bertz
    Presumably Rolison or Little out for Boyd. And I'd guess Assad needs another day of rest after his Sunday start but is a bullpen option starting tomorrow? Bullpen won't be in good shape until Palencia is back, but I feel like it's back to being in okay shape. We got very lucky that the offense went supernova while the pen was in tatters.
  7. Bertz
    Looks like we went 6-0 against them in '22 (WTF?!?) but otherwise hadn't had a winning season against them since '18.
  8. Bertz
    I'm sure someone is gonna tell me like "we did it in '24 dufus" but it feels like we haven't won tbe season series against the Phillies in a long time?
  9. Bertz
    Dansby waiving off Kingery on that popup to end it killed me
  10. Bertz
    I was just thinking "it's probably a bad sign we've heard crickets on Harvey" so pleasantly surprised there. Feels like this west coast roadtrip these guys are all out, but Maton/Roberts activated at the start of the next homestand and Palencia by the end of that homestand? Not the worst outcome.
  11. Bertz
    Yeah I feel like this was really on display last night. Playing against the Phillies with our pre-season #6 starter on the mound with our top 5 relievers out (3 on the IL two just down for the day) and we still win a comfortable 5-1 game. Questions about the top end talent on the roster are fair but it's hard to see how they don't continue to pile up wins.
  12. Bertz
    I know I'm getting too in the weeds but Cabrera's due positive regression on the K front. His contact rate against is a hair under 74%. Among SPs last year between 73 and 75, the average rate was closer to 25%. He's been dong lucky but strikeout unlucky. I'm still expecting the approximately 3.50 ERA guy we were sold.
  13. Bertz
    I think the Cubs don't care about Stuff+, but that's very much "our model and this model don't align" and not "we don't care about pitch models". Painting with a broad brush but the Cubs tend to prioritize guys who work east/west (which pops off more in Pitching Bot) than north/south (which Stuff+ prefers). If you see a guy go in opposite directions in different models I'd suspect an affirmative choice. Cabrera's down in both so I don't think anything intentional is happening. Maybe it's a SSS mechanical issue, hopefully it's weather, maybe sequencing/tunneling gains outweigh pitch model losses (Cabrera's fastball is finally in the black by pitch value), but Cabrera's stuff is definitely down.
  14. Bertz
    His velo is down too, though I'm wondering if that's at least partially weather. He hasn't been pitching in tundra or anything but for a Dominican player who's career to this point has been in Miami weather in the 40's probably still has an impact. His velo in the spring was fine and his velo that first start against the Angels (when it was weirdly warm) was also fine.
  15. Bertz
    Yeah I feel pretty good about where the team is at right now. White knuckling the bullpen a bit until Maton and Palencia are back, but that seems to hopefully be a short term problem. With the *very* notable exception of Horton I generally feel as good or better about each guy on the pitching staff than I did coming into the season. And at the plate I'm not feeling like any of the guys struggling are going through anything more than just a slump? Mayyybe Busch? Things are going well on the farm too, so that also gives me some confidence that reinforcements can be acquired if need be (though obviously temper expectations for what level of big game hunting Jed will have the appetite for).
  16. Bertz
    Did we seriously luck into a situation where Matt Shaw got nothing but routine fly balls for three weeks while he learned RF and he managed to get good at the position right about the time he actually start getting tested?
  17. Bertz
    Really really good win. Obviously Nola/Rea is a mismatch and the bullpen was pretty shredded. Winning *AND* only using Milner/Martin? Huge.
  18. Bertz
    Yeah I think as (primarily) a lefty Pedro's an easier complement to the starters than Shaw is. Also worth noting that we have two full time OFers and Conforto slated for FA. Plus hopefully some Mo Baller DH at bats get traded for Mo Baller catcher at bats. You're not backfilling all of that lost playing time internally but there's playing time to be had for some of the kids.
  19. Bertz
    That is an insanely impressive to make that call two years ago. Like Pedro had a good '23 at Myrtle but damn. Also goes to show how much of *gestures* all this is superseded by age relative to league. We're seeing it here, we're seeing it with Mo. Guys who performed super young for every league they've been in continuing to perform up the ladder despite not having the loudest toolsets.
  20. Bertz
    FWIW, Z-Contact numbers for various recent Cubs at AAA and MLB PCA ('23/'24) - 79.8% / 77.2% Caissie - 82.7% / 79.3% Mo Baller - 86.4% / 83.7% Matt Shaw - 85.9% / 86.4% Worth noting that PCA since the start of last year is at 84%, and Mo/Caissie's numbers are better this year than they were in their cups of coffee last year. So like, a 3 point drop is basically the high end of what you could expect, and generally it's less than that as guys get their feet under them. Pedro Ramirez at 95.2% is elite. Would rank 4th in MLB last season behind Nico. Even if you lop 3 full points off hes still ~90th percentile, in line with guys like Jung Hoo Lee and Jose Ramirez. Pedro is an absolute data darling.
  21. Bertz
    Agreed. If he was older I'd move him up, but as a 19 year old I'd like him to do the whole "go into a slump and pull yourself out of it" deal. Even if we have to stretch a bit to call something a slump for him at that level.
  22. Bertz
  23. Bertz
    Good, I never really heard a decent argument for why he didn't start there to begin with. Ayers presumably gets bumped to Tenn as well? Not sure if anything else feels all that pressing.
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    With all the guys on the IL this bullpen can't really reach good shape currently, but it's particularly rough tomorrow. Ideally they bash Nola's skull in, otherwise though a clunker from Rea (that, crucially, does not keep him from going 5) wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
×
×
  • Create New...