Bertz

Here's anotber list of names. From the last 10 years guys who pitched at least 100 IP in a season with an ERA north of 5 and an xFIP south of 4. 11 guys in total, they saw their ERAs drop by 1.43 runs on average YoY. The way to read the numbers below is: ERA in year listed / xFIP in year listed / ERA the following year Putting this in a quote so it doesn't take up as much room I also want to call out three more names. These guys just barely missed my criteria, but each one became a star. 2016 Robbie Ray - 4.90/3.45/2.89 2016 Aaron Nola - 4.78/3.08/3.54 2019 Kevin Gausman - 5.72/4.05/3.62 It's not a slam dunk Brown becomes an impact arm, he could be Chris Paddack or Tyler Duffey or Michael Pineda (not listed above but a 'just missed' who didn't improve). But throwing the baby out with the bathwater because of some hard contact and BABIP has an opportunity to spectacularly blow up in your face.

Jansen is one of the very few relievers who I feel comfortable saying has no chance of coming here. No judgment, I'm rooting for him, but he's chasing milestones and will want assurances that he gets all save opportunities. That's not how Craig rolls, especially for a guy who's fairly shakey at this point.

I would guess it wasn't the money it was the opt out after 1. Despite all the conspiracy theories about the CBA the team doesn't want the entire roster to turn over next offseason. These things tend to come in waves, so I wouldn't be surprised if a handful of the other highly comparable guys (Keller, Fairbanks, Weaver) sign in the next day or two. We know Jed's working in this tier this winter.

Well there you have it I guess, case closed

A collection of pitchers that Ben Brown outpitched last year as measured by both xFIP (Fangraphs) and DRA (Baseball Prospectus): Matt Boyd Cade Horton Dylan Cease Edward Cabrera Freddy Peralta Kevin Gausman Carlos Rodon Nick Pivetta Mackenzie Gore Ranger Suarez Brown had the peripherals of a guy who could legitimately start game 1 of a playoff series. He also had the best peripherals of any SP on our team. Now obviously peripherals ignore batted ball data, and that's a huge part of the story with Brown. But as we all know this stuff is really fickle. In 2025 we can't just point at BABIP and say "luck!" but it is mostly luck. Some light math says the YoY correlation on barrel rate is .45 and on hard hit rate is .55. That's not inconsequential but it's also a far far cry from a permanent death sentence. For instance, among pitchers who pitched 100+ innings in '24 and '25, Carlos Rodon had the worst barrel rate in the league in 2024. In 2025 he was 93rd. You need several hundred innings before you can say a pitcher's batted ball outcomes, good or bad, are meaningfully predictive. I also don't buy the two pitch thing as some sort of crippling problem either. Setting aside that there's plenty of pitchers that do great with two pitches, it doesn't track with how Brown has primarily struggled. A limited repertoire is usually associated with heightened struggles deeper in games. Essentially the times through the order penalty becomes magnified because the pitcher lacks a variety of ways to get outs. That's why these guys get funneled into relief. However Brown's biggest struggles were early in games. Brown had an ERA of 9.00 (!!!) in the first inning, his highest of any inning. He also had his worst peripherals (an xFIP of 4.38). That should have absolutely nothing to do with only having two pitches. Brown's 3rd time through the order ERA is also pretty inflated (13.19...even in a small sample woof!), but I think it should be noted his peripherals were still strong. But while I'm clearly quite bullish on him with a little more sample I would buy Brown's going to be limited to being a 5 and dive guy due to his lack of repertoire. Now I don't say all this to imply we should go into next year with Brown in the rotation. His struggles seem pretty flukey, but you can't just assume it'll all work out immediately with the clean slate of a new season. But I do think it's reasonably likely that in the near future he's a SP that we actively want starting games. So I do think he should be near the front of the line among the depth SPs, whether that's in the bullpen as the long guy (my preference) or at Iowa as the first SP on the speed dial.

This is largely the same fanbase that flatly refused to acknowledge how the wind blowing in at Wrigley impacts offense, so this behavior tracks.

And DVOA has been, pardon the pun, the most bearish on the team amongst the advanced metrics. I wouldn't be surprised to see 80%+ playoff odds elsewhere. Win two more games, with one of those coming against SF or Detroit, and I think itt's pretty much a lock?

Suzuki and Shota for Japan Caissie for Canada Amaya for Panama Assad for Mexico Ballesteros and Palencia for Venezuela Hoerner probably ought to start at 2B for the US

He's talked about strikeouts and "taking some of the luck out of the game" a few times, most notably to me this retrospective on Kyle Hendricks: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-executives-on-developing-the-next-kyle-hendricks/ I found this really funny but also very revealing. A reporter calls asking for a few quotes for a fluff piece on Kyle and he's so laser focused on adding swing and miss to the current team it spills over with this diatribe. I believe he had similar spiels during his end of season presser and his meeting with reporters at the GM meetings. So I'd be surprised if the remaining SP is a finesse guy. Michael King or Edward Cabrera are probably the smart money.

Gallen and Suarez are pretty Jed coded but with how incessantly he's talking about strikeouts this winter id be surprised if we end up there. Valdez is going to get approximately the same money as Cease and similarly does not feel like what Jed's seeking out this offseason. We're looking at King or a trade IMO. Outside shot of Imai.

Damn, I wanted Cease. He was my #1 guy this winter. I like the trade options a smidge less than Cease and the FAs a lot less, so I'm hoping Jed has already sent a few "u up?" texts to the Marlins and Nats. I also think it's interesting that there's been so much smoke around the bullpen the last few days, specifically that the team is going to throw a good bit more money around there than we're used to. Given the timing it's hard not to think there's a connection. The question is if the team just "freed up" $10Mish (the dropoff from Cease to someone like King) or $25Mish (the dropoff from Cease to someone like Gore or Cabrera). Time will tell I guess.

The fact that there's been a weirdly high amount of Helsley buzz from multiple places makes me think he's about ready to sign and is kicking up noise to make sure he's not leaving any money on the table.

Listened to Sharma and Mooney's latest podcast and this definitely feels like this has legs and is not just a "they're checking in on every reliever" thing.

He was tipping pitches https://www.mlb.com/news/ryan-helsley-addresses-recent-pitch-tipping-issues He had a 14.90 (!!!) ERA from 8/10 to 9/10, and outside of that stretch had a 2.33. I hate the "except for when he was bad he was good" thing but there's some clear cause and effect here. I'll be curious to see what Helsely gets. In my mind it's like Devin Williams and you ignore the ERA and give him Tanner Scott money. But the MLBTR's of the world have him in the same brakcet as Brad Keller, which feels like a bargain opportunity.

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Even though there haven't been any rumors yet Leiter feels pretty inevitable. I have not dug in deep into his horrendous second half last year, though he didn't lose velo so it doesn't appear to be injury. But Hottovy has fixed him like four times already so bringing him in on Caleb Thielbar money seems like a no brainer. How I feel about that has less to do with Leiter and more to do with what else gets done. Leiter would slot 3rd into the bullpen if ST started today. I'm not too worried about that happening but it would be a major problem. If he's fourth I think that's still a bit disappointing, if he's fifth or lower it gets a "hell yeah brother" from me.

Cards are gonna be baaaaddddd next year Also probably good for the Cubs this winter. Easy to envision the Red Sox and Cubs swimming in a lot of the same waters on the SP front. Red Sox are presumably done with their rotation noe.

A collection of pitchers Ben Brown had better peripherals than last year: Dylan Cease Ranger Suarez Edward Cabrera Kris Bubic Joe Ryan Mackenzie Gore Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester Kevin Gausman Nick Pivetta Carlos Rodon I'm not super convinced Brown needs to change a thing personally.

I can't tell if this is simply writing up the rumor from the Athletic, or if this is also him +1'ing it and confirming the interest? Either way Philips would be fun, assuming it's a 1+1 deal. Very much not a signing you make when money is super tight though...

The Athletic has confirmed that he's staying stretched out as a SP this winter. I suspect with Brown/Wicks/Assad one gets traded this winter, one opens next year in the big league bullpen in long relief, and the last hangs out at Iowa making starts and serving as depth. I personally think Brown>>Wicks>>>>>>>>>Assad So assuming their trade value is commensurate to that I'd probably have Brown in the pen, use Wicks in a trade, and banish Assad to Iowa.

Obviously the best approach is to assume the worst, but if you focus just on what we're hearing this winter and don't anchor too hard on our priors coming into the offseason it does make you wonder if there's more money to play with than we've been accounting for. Consider: - The team is ~$55M under the luxury tax right now, and using the team's typical "set $10M aside as buffer" philosophy our standard assumptions imply Jed has ~$45M to play with - Top of the rotation arms in FA have been mentioned repeatedly. Dylan Cease, who will make north of $25M per year, and Michael King, who will make about $20M, have been singled out frequently - The trade route, which would be significantly cheaper payroll wise, has not had nearly as much smoke. Notably even after Shota accepted his offer the focus still seems to be addressing SP through a top of market FA. Honestly it is weirdly quiet all around on the trade front given the chips Jed has in his pocket - The team is being heavily connected to the upper middle class of closers. Guys who are going to make $10-12M a year. Devin Williams, who will likely get north of $15M, is being treated as unlikely but not being ruled out - The team needs a volume of relievers. I believe Mooney used the term "bulk shopping." Even if all of these guys are modest signings, the number of them means this is probably another $10-15M in aggregate - Things have been quieter on the bat front. There have been a few specific names mentioned here or there but generally it's just "right handed bat". It hasn't been rumored yet, but the team also clearly needs a backup middle infielder unless said bat provides coverage there. This is also probably about $10M unless you really skimp. Like for instance Turner + Berti last year were modest signings and combined for $8M - There have been occasional ties to bigger bats. Most notably IMO Passan last week tied us to Bregman again. So there are seemingly scenarios where the team is willing to throw $$$ at a bat. Makes you wonder if a more substantial bat is on the table in the event they get their big SP via trade? So all told even on the lowest end that's $50M the team seems committed to spend from here, probably north if $60M. Now of course trade(s) could be used to cover that $$ gap with prospect currency, that'sprobably the most likely outcome. And of course the team could just cut corners somewhere. But from the vibes and smoke out there right now free agency seems like the focus and to get all of the shopping they seem committed to done it makes you wonder if payroll is going to spike a bit to be $260Mish for a year

I really don't recommend cherry picking like this. For instance the Seattle game you cited was tied for the highest velo game of his career at 93 MPH. And the Atlanta game you "just so happened" to settle on after was well above his 2024 norms as well, bookended by ten games where he never cracked a 92 MPH average. Shota's worst velo start last year, 90.1 in that Friday afternoon disaster against the Mets, was followed six days later by his other 93 start. Shota's fastball averaged 91.7 last year, 91.2 this year before the injury (and again, April), and 90.7 after. There's all the additional detail Bastian laid out in his article. It's your perogative on whether you think he'll bounce back or not but "I don't think the injury impacted his velocity" doesn't have a lot of evidence behind it.

This is a good read. I think several things are true with Shota - It's clear that the hamstring injury impacted him, specifically on the velocity front - There's no promise that he will be totally fixed with the injury behind him - On that note, his velocity was already down half a tick pre injury. Though April weather in Chicago sometimes does that - Shota's underlying numbers don't justify his 3.73 ERA, though he's due some positive regression on K's and dongs so it's not nearly as bad as his FIP makes it look - Low velocity SPs are not generally the best aging demographic All told Shota's a good bounce back candidate, but we should be clear eyed that the median outcome is probably Taillon with a strikeout rate a couple points higher. That's worth the QO but firmly in "quality #4 starter" territory.