Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
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It's mostly BABIP, they have a .319 against lefties which at the team level is preposterous. And it's not earned through batted ball quality, their hard hit rate is simply fine and their barrel rate sucks. Like they're not a disaster against lefties, but I'd say they're noticeably worse. xwOBA is .313 against lefties and .325 against righties. And for whatever issues you can take with xwOBA hard to quibble comparing the same team against itself.
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All else being equal you want to throw LHP at the Brewers. If you think Boyd threw so little on Tuesday that this short rest won't hurt him, he's the clear top option. I'd have done a Rea/Bullpen game, but I get it.
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How in the world does a splitter have negative vertical break? I thought only fastballs could do that?? This has got to be the most unicorn pitch in the system right? It makes Neely's slider sound boring.
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I believe it's simple record, no H2H or anything. So we'd have it against the M's or Tigers but not against the Jays or Yankees.
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I think Amaya is healthy he just ran out of time to get ready. Like he started a few games for Iowa, so I think if there was an injury he'd be added immediately. I doubt he gets added otherwise though. Kelly can play every day from here on because of the off days. And McGuire provides better defense than Amaya in a situation where e.g. you pinch hit Mo for Kelly. And I agree I'd guess Alcantara is the guy who loses his spot too. Maybe he comes back if we face the Phillies next round? But otherwise Castro can cover.
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2025 In-Season Cubs Top Prospect Lists Updates
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Alcantara 44, Rojas 55, Wiggins 66 No Caissie or Mo still, but maybe in his fuller offseason update they make their way back on. -
Jordan Wicks ate 3 innings Sunday allowing the bullpen to come into the WC completely rested. Pretty valuable in a series where we were side-eying every member of the rotation coming in. I'd also guess that a minimum 15 day stay is a pipe dream regardless, but we'll see.
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I believe Woodruff is out but Quintana is probably back. I'd assume Peralta Priester Patrick Quintana Peralta Though with the off days it's actually doable to go to Peralta and Priester 2x each if you are comfortable with 4 days rest. Might be a case where Quintana goes game 4 if they're up Peralta goes if they're down.
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There's a similar one from Fangraphs a few weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-will-the-brewers-do-if-theres-no-meatwaste/ Basically the Brewers are patient without falling into the trap of being passive, but realistically there's a definite talent deficit there.
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I mean Happ was a complete mess this past series, so having at least the option of going Seiya in LF and Mo at DH would be nice, no? Or if Seiya goes back to being ice cold. My point is mainly about options. Tucker's the one hitter in the lineup complete enough that he'll never ever ever come out, so it sucks that he's currently locked into DH.
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I'm curious how close we are to Tucker being able to play the OF, especially with all the off days coming up. Because once he can play the OF i think getting Ballesteros into the mix gets a lot easier.
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I like Preller. Frankly the league needs 2-3 Prellers to keep all the Jeds on track. But yeah, the window probably closed for them last night. If you assume they keep their payroll flat, they have ~$40M to replace quite a bit heading out the door in FA. Namely Cease, King, Arraez, and Suarez. If WC3 is as uninspiring next year as it was this year, Maybe AJ can keep enough plates spinning for one more go? But we're definitely near the end. And with the farm and the payroll bloat it's probably not a quick lay down for a year and come back good as new situation.
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Yeah I think especially with the game being sandwiched by off days you don't overthink it: just pitch Rea and have a quick trigger finger for the bullpen.
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https://bsky.app/profile/blandalytics.pitcherlist.com/post/3m2asw6mczc2y Not sure why this isn't embedding, but apparently the pitch to Bogaerts was a strike
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Yeah I think you try and go Rea for 3ish, Soroka for 2, if you're ahead go to the short relievers and if you're behind go to Assad/Civale
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You did it again
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Guy who can't figure out the Quote button is calling a hall of fame athlete a mental ******, sure
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Craig playing it straight
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I think I would do Castro for Shaw but otherwise play it straight up to start. Then I'd be very willing to PH Ballesteros as soon as a good PH opp comes up knowing that I can bring Shaw in at 3rd and shift Castro wherever needed. If this is a regular season game, even a relatively important one, I probably start McGuire over Kelly. But here to your point the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze for what's likely one AB.
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I think the big questions today are: - How deep does Shildt let Darvish go? I think he definitely doesn't get twice through the order unscathed but once maybe he can bob and weave enough - Do Darvish or Taillon get any extra juice from being able to shorten up? - Are Miller or Morejon available? The answer *should* be no, but the Padres have an almost pathological need to fail the marshmallow test. And this is probably their last run (mayyybe next year) - Does Craig make the lineup as dangerous as possible for Darvish, knowing it might make the Padres' bullpen have an easier time in the back half of the game? - Darvish is one of the worst pitchers in the league at holding runners, but Fermin's got a great arm. So is this game a track meet or played more straight up?
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Hello, Old Friend(s)
Bertz replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Darvish is more or less unplayable against LHP this year, and that's not something that's gotten better as the year has gone along. The Cubs are a very bad matchup for him (I'm definitely going to eat these words). I suspect the Padres' plan is Darvish once through the order, turn it over to Kyle Hart to get through the run of lefties in the front half of the lineup, then Michael King, then the short relievers. I also wouldn't be surprised if Shildt is just going to say horsefeathers it and run Miller/Morejon out there again. Something like this? Darvish (2) Hart (1) King (2) Morejon (1) Miller (1) Estrada (2) Suarez (1) Feels like you've gotta get to Darvish and you've probably got to get to him fast. I wonder if Craig loads the lineup up with all the lefties, or if he holds a bit back for later in the game.
