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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Do you *actually* think there's a reason that Turner can hit lefty relievers but not lefty starters? Or did you just cherry pick the number that made your point after you saw that Turner's been better overall against lefties this year?
  2. Bertz
    Why just SP?
  3. Bertz
    I'd say too unless/until the standings start looking a lot different the best course of action is for Craig to really aggressively get the main guys rest. And leaning on platoon advantages is one of the more reasonable ways of doling out that rest.
  4. Bertz
    Looks like the breakeven point is 766 PAs before wOBA finally starts becoming more meaningful than xwOBA https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/ Also periodic reminder as we round yhe bend into the offseason that the best simple projection system for next season is 2/3s of a guy's xwOBA and 1/3rd of their actual, which I find to be an extremely handy rule of thumb.
  5. Bertz
    With Alcantara and Santana in curious to see the lineup against LHP. Does Craig go all in and take all the lefties (plus Happ) out except Tucker? Or are these changes in order to be able to pinch hit mid game and still have pinch hit options available late game?
  6. Bertz
    Jack Neely rehabbing at South Bend. Hopefully after his convalescense he gets back to where he was late last year
  7. Bertz
    Sounds pretty encouraging TBH
  8. Bertz
    Yes but I wouldn't pound the table over it. Might also depend on matchups? I feel like Happ's issue against lefties is his swing is pretty grooved, so there might be some guys you like him against even right handed.
  9. Bertz
    I am generally of the mind that all the "do something!" stuff w/r/t the lineup is just silliness, but an actual low hanging improvement to make is to give Happ less exposure to LHP. For his career he's only intermittently effective against them and now's not exactly one of his feasting periods. Don't start like taking him out of the 6th inning of games because of a lefty reliever, but do probably stop starting him against most lefty starters.
  10. Bertz
    Uribe is being ridden real hard this year I'd be nervous as hell about him right now if I was. Brewers fan.
  11. Bertz
    Milwaukee just lost Trevor McGill to a flexor strain, presumably for the year. Their #2 RP, Abner Uribe, has already been one of the hardest ridden pitchers in the league this year. I don't think it gets us the division, but I do think it does materially impact their chances in the playoffs.
  12. Bertz
    I believe the beat guys implied he was a bit of a horsefeathers here, only he had the self control to keep it to the clubhouse. But that's allegedly why the team cold shouldered him so hard on his way out the door.
  13. Bertz

    Waivers

    Bertz replied to Neuby's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk

    The Rangers feel like the team to keep an eye on. They bought at the deadline, have faceplanted in the weeks since, and to top it off Semien and Eovaldi hit the IL this week. They have a bunch of solid pitchers in their walk year and are right on the Luxury Tax line.
  14. Bertz
    What I wouldn't give for a list of updated scouting reports on a lot of these popup arms at MB/SB like Valdez and Camacho
  15. Bertz
    Yeah Boyd has pitched well all year but was not even close to earning a ~2.50 ERA. This is just some garden variety regression.
  16. Bertz
    Given the timing he's presumably out for all of next year too. Maybe back for the AFL?
  17. Bertz
    I think it helps too that Myrtle Beach went from hitting like the Bad News Bears to hitting like the '27 Yankees over the last 6 weeks or so. The farm thinned out *fast* earlier in the year but now I actually have guys that I would like to include on my Top 20 that I can't fit.
  18. Bertz
    Lot can change between now and then of course, but at first blush the only really rough stretch is the end of April with @Phillies Mets Phillies @Dodgers @Padres
  19. Bertz
    Verlander's gotten a bit better as the season has gone on, but this is still a game the Cubs should win. Win today and split the next two.
  20. Bertz
    It goes H2H, then division record, then record against the rest of the NL, then starts getting weird with "Last half of Interleague games" Yeah the Padres have 7 more against the Rockies and 3 more against AZ, we have one series each against Pitt, Cincy, and St. Louis. Padres definitely have an easier road, though the Cubs' is hardly scary. Not impossible the Cubs outplay the Padres in those 10 games, but I would guess if they do they'll have won the #4 seed outright making it moot.
  21. Bertz
    Yeah I believe the magic number for the playoffs is 23, and the Reds need to take 3/4 in the upcoming series to win the tiebreaker and avoid it dropping one more. The Cubs can pretty much limp to the finish line and still play a playoff round at this point. Home field in the wildcard round is tighter. Padres are likely going to win the tiebreaker, because they have a stellar in-division record on account of bludgeoning the Giants and Rockies. So I think it's officially 29 but more practically is 30.
  22. Bertz
    I tend to think like Jason that a SP of substance is coming this winter, via FA if we lose Tucker or via trade if we hold onto him. That said I do wonder if you're right about Soroka sticking around as a second signing. As much as Rea has exceeded my expectations this year, I'd still love to swap in Soroka in place of him over the winter. With Steele due back, a big fish presumably also coming in the door, and the IP concerns around Boyd/Horton/Brown much less acute, there's hopefully less of a need for bulk innings next year. I certainly don't think the rotation is in a place where we can jettison a bunch of depth, but I'd happily swap Rea's rubber arm for a different swing pitcher that I feel better about on a per inning basis.
  23. Bertz
  24. Bertz
    The funnest thing about Cepeda is that the contact is trending way up lately. He's been hitting for a while now, he had a 112 wRC+ in April/May, the only one of the teens to do a damn thing at MB early in the season. But the contact numbers were pretty awful until here in August, where they're at a league average-ish 22.6%. That's not to say we're in the clear, Lumpuy backslid hard after he seemed to get his contact demons under control a month or so back, but it's a good sign.
  25. Bertz
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