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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    You always want to have at least one guy at AAA who you would be comfortable starting a big league game. Between injuries and Brown's innings reset Wicks kind of needed to just hold tight at Iowa as that guy. Now with reinforcements close I suspect that if both are still in the org past the deadline one of Brown/Wicks will own the Chris Flexen long reliever role going forward the rest of the year.
  2. Bertz
    Alcantara making a last push to get traded in the next 30 hours and probably be a big leaguer within the next few weeks
  3. Bertz
    I don't know if I agree with this. There's a reason that when Rosenthal or Passan say something we immediately go "Wow, interesting, so that would likely mean..." and when Nightengale or Bowden say something it's always prefaced by "Look I know this bozo is always wrong, but there's nothing better to talk about so I'm posting it anyway."
  4. Bertz
    Assad sitting 92 through 2 innings. Solid enough, though ideally he'd be closer to 93.
  5. Bertz
    There's also this I hate to beat a dead horse, but "we need to protect from our rookie 3B struggling" and "we need some additional CF depth" brings me back to one oft-mentioned name.
  6. Bertz
    2.3 fWAR pace since he came back in May. And that's not accounting for his wOBA/xwOBA gap or the fact that DRS likes his defense a heck of a lot more than Statcast does. I don't think Shaw is better than Suarez right now, but I do believe the gap is small enough that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
  7. Bertz
    Yeah with Assad and Taillon looking like they're each approximately two weeks out there's maybe not that same desperation for merely competent innings. Like I'd still LOVE Bieber as a second SP, but I think there's less need for someone in the Morton/Houser/Soroka tier.
  8. Bertz
    This from Passan stood out to me
  9. Bertz
    Caissie/Alcantara/Long back in the Iowa lineup. and joined by Amaya on rehab
  10. Bertz
    If you read what Trueblood just posted, plus what has been out there in the Athletic and ESPN, it really sounds like the team wants 3 pitchers: - An impact type, ideally under control for a few years. A legitimate core piece - Another solid pitcher, ideally not too prospect expensive - An opportunistic buy to help lengthen the staff. Opportunistic could be a salary dump or an injury risk or someone that needs to be pitch-labbed, but this guy won't cost a ton of prospects I think it's pretty clear the above should be two SPs and a RP, though I don't know if the team is dead set on that. I would hope that reflects optimism around the health of Taillon/Assad?
  11. Bertz
    Not shocking, I assumed he would last a few more days but him making it through the weekend was always in doubt
  12. Bertz
    FWIW when Rosenthal posts stuff this direct it tends to be "when" more than "if"
  13. Bertz
    Worth noting before people get their pitchforks out that Longenhagen was the low guy on Caissie and Mo coming into the year. So it's less that he's dropped them and more that he hasn't bumped them up.
  14. Bertz
    In addition to this I also think over-weighting the last two months is problematic because the Cubs faced a murderers row of opposing starting pitchers in June. If you look at Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ metric (their version of wRC+ that happens to also include opponent quality) from May 22 onward the Cubs are 2nd in the league at 114 and the Brewers are 23rd in the league at 97. The Cubs are just a much much much better offensive team.
  15. Bertz
    A bearish take on Keller. Though I think you have to consider that there's potentially some untapped pitch-design work to be done given that some pretty smart pitching teams are so hot after him.
  16. Bertz
    Answer: The last 48 hours
  17. Bertz
    My understanding is it's 3 things: 1. The GM is a consigliere. I remember Theo telling a story that during the Arrieta deal Jed basically pounded the table to have Theo ask for Strop too 2. The GM usually has a specialty area they came up from, and might continue to own that area. So like Hawkins was a player development guy in Cleveland, so I'd imagine most of the coaches and minor league staff have their work flow up to Carter rather than Jed 3. The GM usually owns smaller transactions, especially during busy periods. For instance at these past winter meetings the Tucker trade and the Carson Kelly signing happened pretty close to each other. I suspect Jed took the Tucker deal and Carter took the Kelly signing. Right now it might be Jed owning the SP and bat searches while Carter owns the RP search
  18. Bertz
    Priester has been *really* good for about two months now, but at the same time our lineup eats sinker/slider righties alive. Curious which one gives.
  19. Bertz
    I hadn't really thought of that but I like it a lot. Though I don't know how often it'd actually get used. Happ's a lot weaker against lefties than righties but not weak enough to justify a benching. I would guess the lineup vs. lefties would look something like this? Hoerner / Tucker/ Seiya PCA / Suarez / Swanson Happ / Turner / Kelly I'd also expect that same 2-5 vs. righties. Trueblood talked in an article this week about the vulnerability the lineup has to lefty relievers coming in to get PCA. That Seiya/Tucker/Suarez sandwich would really help address that issue.
  20. Bertz
    I don't think "not top 10" is anywhere close to "bottom of the barrel"?
  21. Bertz
    Jed's probably not the best GM in the league, but we're at a point where the difference between like 3rd and 10th or whatever isn't huge. This team is set up extremely really well for the next several years, and it would probably do more harm than good to swap out POBOs at this stage even if an upgrade were available.
  22. Bertz
    For posterity before things get moving this week, this would be my A+ deadline - Edward Cabrera - Shane Bieber - Willi Castro - Raisel Iglesias Given the tenor of Trueblood's article this AM, I assume there's little worry about Cabrera's elbow. And if he is healthy he checks every box. He gives you a stuff heavy righty to break up Boyd and Shota in a playoff series. He cheaply addresses the SP hole for next year, and he helps provide a bridge past the post '26 roster cliff I've talked incessantly about Castro, but he provides rest/injury insurance everywhere but catcher, and provides support for Shaw at 3B without outright blocking him. Perfect fit IMO. Iglesias and Bieber are (probably) quality pitchers on pricey contracts who I expect to cost little to nothing in prospects. Bieber's likely twoish weeks from being back in the bigs. I wouldn't expect him to be at 100% right out of the shoot, but I would expect him to be in the neighborhood of Rea, while hopefully improving continually as he knocks off the rust. Honestly he's pretty analogous to where Boyd was a year ago at this time. But I think this really patches up the various holes on the roster, adds some impact talent as well, and doesn't completely eviscerate the farm.
  23. Bertz
    The Cubs are among the better teams in the league at handling velo. Against pitches 98 MPH+ - 10th in xwOBA - 11th lowest whiff rate - 8th in hard hit rate - 5th in barrel rate Add in that Miz has generally been 5 and dive, and I don't think this is going to be as bad of a day for the offense as you'd think.
  24. Bertz
    Nate Pearson over the last two months: 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 25 Ks, 6 BB, 1 HR Nate Pearson in July: 8 IP, 2.25 ERA, 12 Ks, 2 BB, 0 HR He looks back on track. Depending on how much pitching gets brought in at the deadline, I'd be happy to bring him back up. Let him be the low leverage mopup guy and start trying to work his way back up the pecking order.
  25. Bertz
    Assuming the team feels good about Cabrera's elbow, I'd do it. I'd be a bit queasy about it, but I'd do it. Which is probably a good sign that it's a fair deal. But it really can't be overstated how big it'd be to get a guy you could have start a playoff game this year who will also be around less year making <$5M. Just absolutely massive impact on the next 15 months. If you can do it without Wiggins? It becomes a slam dunk then. Probably looks more like Caissie, Assad, and Long?
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