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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I'm curious if Cristian Hernandez makes the jump to Tennessee with Rojas in a few weeks. On the one hand he's doing well at SB but not really dominating in a way that calls for that mid-season promotion. On the other hand he is approaching a calendar year at the level, and I think there is some value to moving guys through the org with a buddy.
  2. Bertz
    I'm actually down for making the Long/Turner swap whenever. Long's had a prolonged slump and worked his way out, which tends to be the last box to check for the Cubs' to move a guy up a level. And Turner's had another month to show its not gonna happen. And letting him hold on to get dong #200 is the kind of good gesture the players see. Turner and Brujan out with Long and Willi Castro in would be a pretty perfect way to tie a bow on the position player group IMO.
  3. Bertz
    Lumpuy is 2/2 with a dong. He's actually been hitting a bit the last few weeks
  4. Bertz
    I think a couple things are true here with Moises - The raw power is pretty firmly average, and at 5'8" that's probably not going anywhere. That said some incremental improvements to his pull rate and GB rate should get him a little more over the fence production. His statcast data isn't that far off of e.g. Josh Naylor - The total offensive production on an age relative to league basis is incredible. He's the 4th youngest player in AAA this year, and yet is rocking a ~85th percentile xwOBA - His contact ability is superb, he looks like he should rock a sub 15% K rate long term So I do think most of his ceiling is riding on him sticking behind the plate. But the floor feels pretty high even as a 1B/DH, as I'm not sure there's more than a couple of bats in the minors who are more likely to be above average MLB hitters.
  5. Bertz
    Nico's a free agent after next season, which lines up more or less exactly with when you'd want to hand Rojas a job if he continues to progress at a good pace. And as much as I'm not wanting to take Shaw out back and shoot him like most of our fanbase, he's hardly done enough for us to consider 3B settled for the foreseeable future.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    Not even a little true
  8. Bertz
    He's also never thrown 100 innings in a season so comes with the same sort of durability considerations we have with Horton/Brown
  9. Bertz
    There is no reason to trade Rojas. Cash some of those Iowa chips instead.
  10. Bertz
    Really good look at the under the hood stuff for Alcantara. Things look fairly rosie.
  11. Bertz
    The fact of the matter is, because of the expectations around guys repeating their minor league level, Caissie's stock was probably (mildly) down this year until some point in the last week or two. He *needed* to have a stretch like this to justify keeping his status as a top ~50 prospect IMO. Caissie's certainly too good to be used on a rental, but I feel comfortable moving him this month. For instance I'd gladly include Caissie in deals for Griffin Jax or Edward Cabrera. I'd reluctantly include him in a Keller/Bednar deal. And I'm on the fence on a Kris Bubic deal. Ideally we would know what's going to happen with Tucker before we moved Caissie, but with Alcantara, Long, and Ballesteros in hand it's not a massive consideration IMO.
  12. Bertz
    Everyone craps on BaseballTradeValues but it does at least help keep this kind of nonsense down
  13. Bertz
    Cam Sisneros continues to rake. With his age he's basically gotta continue racing through the system but sub 10% K rates with seemingly okay power is always worth keeping an eye on
  14. Bertz
    Yeah this feels like either something extremely benign like he got the runs or a hug watch. Because the timing wouldn't seem to line up with an injury at all.
  15. Bertz
    Ummmm do we know why Alcantara was pulled?
  16. Bertz
    This is so weird. Jaxon's last start was 6/20, and it looks like Futures Game Rosters were announced on 6/30. I would think if he got hurt in between he wouldn't have been announced to begin with? But with him being pulled It's hard to imagine anything but injury. Hopefully it's something obnoxiously persistent but not scary, like Hodge's injury earlier in the year.
  17. Bertz
    Probably worth noting that Amaya's breakout started a year ago this week. The anniversary of PCA's breakout is still 3 weeks out. And I'd say the under the hood stuff for Shaw is far less ugly than it was for either of those guys at the same juncture. That's not to say that Shaw will break out this week or this month or ever. But when these things happen they tend to happen really quickly and the reward is immense.
  18. Bertz
    I remember being fairly mad about the Nico pick. There's enough egg on my face there (he's still leading that draft in career WAR) that I refuse to get mad about drafting "boring" guys again.
  19. Bertz
    Nico Hoerner's a free agent in 15 months, Swanson's a 31 year old whose defensive metrics are down YoY, and the Cubs don't have a shortstop prospect worth a damn in AA or AAA.
  20. Bertz
    The draft being part of the All Star Break hurts too. Much in the same way that the offseason dies for a week or two heading into the arbitration deadline, draft prep is a huge lift in terms of man hours for industry folks.
  21. Bertz
    I hope that lasts another three days, but even with the injuries this is probably a .500ish team on talent and they're going to pull out of it at some point.
  22. Bertz
    I think this series is going to be less easy than folks think. The SP matchups are advantageous obviously, but the Twins' bullpen is monstrous and their position player group is solid. Add in being on the road and I don't think we should just assume a cake walk. I'll be happy with 3-3 this week heading into the break.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah he reads like if you put Nico and Dansby in a blender. That's probably phenomenal value but I don't expect this fanbase to process "10-12 homerun power" appropriately
  24. Bertz
    Reading up more on Houston since I hadn't paid much attention to him prior to this, and man this board would hate that pick lol
  25. Bertz
    Not super valuable since it reads like this is a dart throw rather than anything sourced, but Keith Law this AM
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