Bertz

Two years ago some nasty post mortems came out about the "Boras 4", notably that for teams calling on Jordan Montgomery Boras wouldn't seriously engage and kept trying to upsell them to Blake Snell. You kind of wonder about whether these guys have been similarly burned. Boras didn't want to move the ball with either until say two weeks ago, and now teams are winning the staring contest because the non-Boras market hasn't really moved since the meetings? Basically he was counting on more of the Valdez/Tucker/Bichette types to be gone by now and now the deadlines are squeezing him. From a labor perspective I support Boras but it feels like hes so big there are inevitable conflicts of interest.

He was certainly not major by the time we got to him but Hosmer was NYE I believe. Hendry used to horsefeathering LOVE new years eve signings. I think he did 3 or 4, most notably Marlon Byrd. That said this whole thing continues to look bad for Imai and Okamoto's prospects of getting paid like they were hoping for. You only take this down to the wire if you have a ton of leverage or very little, and the deafening silence certainly points to the latter.

Given the medical questions this was never a guarantee to get to the finish line, so good news. 40 man is at 36 now I believe?

I think if you promised me there'd still be something of substance done on the position player side I'd be fine with Gallen. He's the boring option but I'm not sure e.g. Gallen + Okamoto is worse or has any less upside than Cabrera + Bregman. But based on our assumptions about payroll and the trade market I expect Gallen would come paired with something uninspiring. But he doesn't *have* to and so I'll try not to jump off the ledge if hes the choice.

Matt Trueblood wrote it up and theorized it's fastball movement This was more or less Taillon’s issue his first half season here IIRC

The bench is mostly in place. The questions are basically for us externally. 1. Does the team view Alcantara or Seiya as the backup CF? This basically determines if the team can carry both Mo/Caissie or just one. You can only fit two of Caissie/Mo/Alcantara on the roster at once without injury 2. Does the team plan to add a 3B in front of or behind Shaw? The team needs a backup at 2B/3B/SS, but if you add a starter at 3B it frees up Shaw to be that guy himself

As usual Greg Z is on the money here. Imai, especially at his age, is an ideal candidate for the patented Boras "swell-opt".

Brett Taylor found an actual Japanese translation of Imai's comments as opposed to Google. Clarifies things a bit. Also interesting to me that it's 3-4 teams at the end here. It is something I've been wondering about is how many teams are looking to invest a $20M+ salary in a SP right now. Probably not a ton. Cubs, Mets (though maybe only on a short term deal), Angels, and....? Yankees and Tigers sound like they're willing to do the opportunistic thing but it's not a super wide market.

Yeah I think the big question is if Okamoto can handle a significant chunk of 3B reps, especially for a team like ours that values defense so highly. Pretty much every report has said he's not good on defense, but are we talking more or less an emergency option like Justin Turner or merely below average like Max Muncy? I feel like I've seen more indications of the former, though there's obviously some error bars translating how these guys will be over here (Seiya was supposed to be a GGer for instance). Because yeah if Okamoto is a real option at all of 1B/3B/COF that's a really good roster fit. To your point Craig could go with a lineup of all righties or as many as 5 lefties, which is extremely his jam. It would also give us a, for lack of a better term, adult backing up all of the young guys we're folding into the roster.

A stretch but things are slow around here so I'll post it. This article is listed under the Cubs' section of the Athletic despite them not being mentioned at all. Re: Imai, this is all it says

Formal offers are I believe full on contracts. Or at least like a terms sheet. You see this distinction used a lot for rage bait. "The Mets didn't even make Pete Alonso a formal offer!" Well sure but they talked extensively and there was an understanding they'd be willing to go to $100M it just never got formalized because both sides understood it wasn't going to get the job done.

Can't vouch for this account but Greg Z retweeted it. Kinda sounds to me like the thing you do after you've requested best and finals from everybody.

Imai has to sign by Friday afternoon. Not just agree to terms but everything needs to be done by then. Contract, physical, all the administrative stuff that goes into a signing. As far as I can tell, no NPB player has taken their posting all the way down to the wire before, presumably because of the administrative work required even after an agreement. The latest I can find someone agreeing is Murakami last week, ~30 hours before his window closed. So let's say 24 hours is the absolute drop dead to get everything done that needs to be done? That means Imai HAS to agree to a deal by Thursday afternoon, and that's assuming the holiday doesn't necessitate additional buffer (probably a bad assumption). So sure Imai can drag this out through the holiday, but that feels like eyewash. What deal is going to come along Thursday morning that isn't there Tuesday morning? Feels like Boras calling pencils down today or tomorrow, get all that admin crap out of the way Tuesday early, fly home Tuesday night and enjoy New Years with the friends and family is the obvious way to play things. Like others have said the fact that it's even gone this far is a sign that he's probably not getting a massive deal. Yamamoto's posting window ended on January 4th and he was signed before Christmas. Murakami and Imanaga both agreed ~2 days before their deadline and their contracts were soft. My guess is he's looking at more like Kevin Gausman money (5/$110M) than Dylan Cease money.

I think Theo's "waves" metaphor is the best way to think about the farm currently. Because it's probably average all in all but saying it's average and then calling it a day does a terrible job of setting the right expectations. Broadly the 2026 club should have all the reinforcements it could ask for, but then there's a big gap hollowed out by trades before things pick back up again. Wave 1 - The MLB-adjacent guys This group is absolutely horsefeathering stellar. Mo, Caissie, and Alcantara divide the industry a bit, but each were top 50 prospects in multiple mid-season lists. Wiggins is a pretty consensus monster, and Jonny Long lacks some ceiling but is a quality player/prospect. That's 5 prospects who look like first division types, PLUS the guys who are in prospect limbo like Brown, Wicks, and Hodge provide some real talent as well. Wave 2 - The trending towards late '26 debuts On the flipside, this group is in terrible shape. Triantos and Ramirez look like quality bench players, and there's probably some middle relief and 5th starter outcomes in the Sanders/Kipp/etc. group, but this chunk if the farm is basically barren. If the entire farm looked like this it'd be the 30th ranked org in the league. It should be noted that this is where Hope, Ferris, and arguably Smith would have lived if they hadn't been traded Wave 3 - South Bend (and the youngest youngsters at Tenn) This is where the farm gets back to cooking. Tennessee's not in the best shape but with Rojas, Hernandez, and to a lesser extent Armas there's some fresh talent arriving and improving things from last year's second half. Then you have South Bend which has a phenomenal lineup. Just 1-9 legitimate prospects. The pitching is still not great at SB, but there's at least some arms and honestly even if there weren't with that lineup it's an affiliate you'd be happy with Wave 4 - The Youths This is going to be a real dice roll. The Cubs have a good number of IFA guys that are slated to open at Myrtle. It's a ton of talent, but the reports out of the ACL haven't been amazing to this point. I suspect we're in for another year like last year where this group gets it's collective ass handed to it in the 1st half but adjusts in the 2nd half and leaves us feeling good. Not an IFA but Josiah Hartshorn might be the most talented player in the org and is our best chance at an absolute monster Top 5 overall type prospect

I would suspect they leave one spot open for the non-roster guys to vie for, so the pen is likely done at least as far as guys getting guaranteed contracts. Although they did add Brasier last year and just let the inevitable ST injuries open up Keller's eventual spot, so maybe I'm wrong.

ZiPS projects him to a 3.04 ERA next year. This is basically the new Brandon Morrow. And unlike Joe I trust Counsell to not shred his arm in a meaningless June game against the Mets.

Yeah I like Cabrera a lot and Cabrera+Bregman is a whale of an offseason. But even beyond the usual extent that all pitchers are risky there's an elevated chance Cabrera's elbow pops next year. But hey we do currently have the depth to cover something like that.

Oh hell yeah! Harvey's high-risk health-wise but on a per inning basis basically as good as anyone who was available this winter besides Diaz and Williams. Paired with the floor raisers we already added this is exciting.

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Yeah they *can* add a SP with Cole and Rodon not being ready for OD, but they don't need one. Last I read is that they have enough cash for one move of consequence, and Cashman is just waiting out the market, with Bellinger as Plan A.

Great stuff here. tl;dr is more fastballs at the top of the zone and change out his sweeper for a more traditional slider

I think what we *can* say with confidence is that even if the Cubs aren't going hard in Imai (very possible!) their top SP target doesn't want to budge until there's market clarity.

This is not to clown on Mooney or to say these situations will end up exactly the same, but this is from four days before the Cubs and Imanaga hooked up for their deal. Also thought this was interesting from Eric Longenhagen's chat at Fangraphs last week I think we just have to accept that we're probably not going to know too much until right before this goes down.

Matt Trueblood, the head writer on this website

That's fairly in line with what Trueblood said on Friday. One signing of substance one trade of substance.