Bertz

Pretty obvious opportunity for positive regression Interesting that he walked a ton of guys in '23 and '24. Because he throws plenty of strikes. Definitely feels like there's some low hanging fruit in terms of 2 strike approach or sequencing or something like that. Only question is if you can get more K's while keeping the soft contact or if it's an either/or thing. Also interesting to me that they're adding a guy whose best case scenario is Mark Leiter after already adding two traditional lefties.

Babe hold all my calls a new Eli Morgan just dropped Cromulent 7th inning guy, appears to be a legitimate soft contact artist. Curious if there are any pitch design changes to try and coax out more swing and miss or if he's just a matchup guy with that changeup.

On the one hand Kaplan's an idiot and hasn't shown to be consistently connected since Hendry left On the other hand the Athletic guys and Jesse Rogers have done some cold watering on this the past week too On the other hand this is basically the same thing that happened with Imanaga On the other hand trading for a SP is what makes the Bregman rumors easiest to reconcile On the other hand that doesn't explain anything happening with Gallen I suspect the Cubs want Imai but think he's worth much closer to $100M then $200M. I also suspect Boras is not getting what he wants because none of the big boys are hot after him so we're just gonna deal with this dumb back and forth horsefeathers for another week.

That seems a little surprising after Austin. But if the Cubs are higher on his 3B defense than the public facing scouts then of course it's a good fit.

Lovich is probably the most glaring example from the farm the last few years of guys who desperately missed the Northwest League. Unlike some of his peers at Myrtle Beach the season ended before he really got a chance to show he'd mastered the level. He had a strong showing in August but the K-rate was still elevated. The good news is he's plenty tooled up, and even if he spends the first half of the year repeating Low A he'll be on a healthy track for his age.

Yeah the Cubs at this point need some coverage at 3B, YMMV on whether he slots ahead or behind Shaw. And depending on how comfortable you are burying the kids you can add a RHH CFer or full time-ish OF/DH. But a pure platoon corner outfielder no longer makes much sense.

I don't know if those first two are true. I believe with Yamamoto the Yankees (and Mets?) were in there til the end. And Imanaga at the end had to pick between the Cubs and the Pirates, his market was much softer than anticipated coming into the winter. That doesn't mean Imai is going to be cheap. But Yamamoto there was a very public bidding war for and the other two guys were suspiciously quiet. And Imai's very much trending in the suspiciously quiet direction.

We're now at 3 in a row NPB imports getting very different contracts from what was expected going into the winter. Yamamoto blasted expectations out of the water, Imanaga came in a little soft, and Murakami faceplanted. Given how quiet it has been I wouldn't be surprised if you were right. Also it would be very on brand for how the discourse around this team always goes if the Cubs got their guy but a big chunk of the fans were still mad because they didn't pay enough for him.

A chill just went down Paul Skenes' spine But seriously, good add. I assume gets a 40 man spot?

The Cubs last year had the 5th best record in the league and the 3rd best run differential. It sucks that they shared a division with the team 1st in both, but by basically any objective measure they were shoulder to shoulder with the rest of the league's upper crust. They did this with a backdrop of stellar player development. They had rookies develop into first division types at SP (Horton), 3B (Shaw), and Closer (Palencia, and I know he wasn't *technically* a rookie). Two of their fun rookies from last year, Busch and PCA, leveled up significantly. Moises Ballesteros had a stellar cup of coffee and is one of the favorites for NL ROY next year. This fanbase goes insane when the wind blows in so the vibes were pretty crappy most of the year, but this was a very successful season both in isolation and in setting up for subsequent years. There's very few years where if you offered me 92 wins and three rookies move into the core that I'd choose to re-roll the dice.

FWIW I was thinking about the Pros/Cons for the four SPs that seem like the most likely options right now: Imai Pros - It's good stuff by any measure but some of the pitch design guys think it might be special. He was a monster in NPB this year, and is really young for a FA SP. No qualifying offer attached which is big; he's the best SP available who doesn't hurt the farm (next closest is...Chris Bassitt?) Cons - He has had command issues historically and '25 was his first really good year, combine those two and he has a fairly pedestrian projection. The fact that there's not a Yamamoto style bidding war happening right now shows the pitch design argument isn't a slam dunk Gallen Pros - Prior to '25 Gallen was a model of consistency and durability. The stuff/velocity is still roughly where it was when he was an ace, so fundamentally this is the same guy who looked like he was in line for Jon Lester money this time last year. Trueblood laid out a fairly compelling case that his issue was that his fastball movement just needs to be tightened up Cons - Even if you feel comfortable handwaving away 2025, this is not the bat missing monster we're all pining for. It would very much have the feel of taking Stroman over Gausman and Ray again. For cost he's probably looking at what King got sans the options? Add in the draft pick and he's certainly not cheap. Gore Pros - Absolutely premium stuff with a good record of durability on top of it. Good performance the last few years and you feel like there's more to unlock moving him to an org operating in the 21st century. Two years of cost control means you can pair him with a substantive FA bat (Bregman?) Cons - Pretty extreme consistency issues, and you do worry to what extent he'll be priced for what he could be vs. what he is Cabrera Pros - Premium stuff and in 2025 started working towards premium performance. Comes with three years of cost control Cons - Major control issues prior to '25. Durability concerns as well, two elbow injuries in the second half of the year raises your eyebrow even if they were seemingly mild. And he wasn't exactly Tom Glavine prior to '25 --- Overall I'm probably in line with most in that Imai is my favorite and Gallen is my least. That said if I had a better sense for what else (if anything) the team plans to do in conjunction with a FA SP I could be convinced to get on board with any of them.

That would make a lot of sense. I saw them linked to pitching but not from any Boston-specific folks. Was likely "well if they're on King..." type thinking. But yeah I believe they wanted a pure bat and also someone who could play 2B/3B, with Mayer getting the other. So my guess is they end up with Bichette or one of the FA 3B. I'd think after making yet another prospect trade they're a little disinclined to go back to the well again for Marte?

In the immediate aftermath of adding Gray the talk was that the Sox were wanting to add two bats and were probably done with substantive arms. Then as we got further out they started getting tied to King, etc So I guess what I'm getting at is my guess is this has implications more in the arm direction than the Bregman direction. Still ultimately good for us.

This also means these numbers are super small sample. Okamoto's numbers were awful in 24 and then great in 25. I'm not big on Murakami but the velo stuff isn't really what would worry me. Especially since with that power hes presumably got special bat speed.

BBTV had its issues but the idea that the Baz trade is going to flip the market on its head doesn't hold up to a lot of scrutiny IMO

MLB Trade Rumors said 8/180. And that's not to clown on them they're great and I don't think I saw any projection under $100M.

Holy horsefeathers lol

If he signs with the Sox that's a really bad sign for how the league view him.

I'm not aware of any of the O's guys making a Top 100. Given the non-linear way prospects are valued that entire package probably isn't worth much more than a single one of Alcantara/Caissie/Mo. It's very much quantity over quality.

Gore is 23rd in pitching fWAR the last two years so while I agree that there's an amount of paying for future production rather than past we don't need to pretend like he's currently chopped liver.

I'm not especially high on Assad. The FIP beater stuff doesn't have a lot of the associated contact management numbers you typically look for to assure yourself it's real. We're well past small sample size but I still don't trust it, and based on their leaving him off the playoff roster entirely clearly the team doesn't either. I will say Assad did pitch well in a less ambiguous way in '23. He was more of an actual swingman and also had more velo (~93 as a starter and approaching 95 in short relief). I don't know what it takes to get that velo back, was his issue this year simply the oblique killed his conditioning? But if he gets back to that higher velocity I'd be more comfortable handing him the ball in a game of consequence. Ultimately I think his fate is tied to Brown and Wicks. They each have minor league options so you dont *have* to do anything, but broadly my thought is with the three of them it's a choice of "bullpen one, trade one, stash the other at Iowa." Setting aside what they'd each return in trade IMO the clear preference is Brown in the pen, Wicks at Iowa, Assad traded. And a trade should actually bring back something nice? The market for back of the rotation SPs is popping off. Adrian Houser just got $11M (!?!). Assad, especially with his minor league options, should have some actual honest to god value.

Not the dollars the options. An opt out this winter should be a non starter with any free agent of substance. The Cubs already have half their lineup and half their rotation heading into FA next winter.

Yeah I think this is probably right. And if you want to doom boner Imai's age would be a pretty solid reason for Stearns to make him an exception to his blanket "be a hardass about years" policy.

Cross the Astros off the list too, as they're $24M under the tax. Might be a threat if we shift focus to trades