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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. After the Dodgers' bullpen meltdown today, the Cubs are 2.5 games up on a first round bye At this point probably better for the Cards to win these games than the Dodgers?
  2. Honestly I just want another good night from Brown and if they come out with a W that's just gravy
  3. Also worth noting that he is pitching in a park/league where an .800 OPS is barely above average.
  4. This is great, really great. A couple things catch my eye in particular: - The team "not necessarily being as focused on a top-end starter as the fans." I'm aligned if they're not going out hunting for a Cy Young contender, but I assume the plan is to net a legitimate playoff starter? Like you don't need Chris Sale but I do think you *need* someone else at least Matt Boyd caliber? - The Ryan McMahon stuff is interesting, but if you bring him in for Nico that feels ideally like an offseason move. Nico's a big part of the clubhouse, and moving Shaw or McMahon back over to second feels like it would temporarily hobble the defense while either guy got back used to the position and in sync with Dansby. That said Nico is part of the post '26 roster cliff while McMahon is signed for an additional year. Plus McMahon as a lefty infielder is a good fit, and I assume there's some low hanging player development fruit to get more out of him than the Rockies have been lately - I also really like Drew Rasmussen. Passan flagged him in his column earlier this week, and I think Rasmussen and Fairbanks is pretty much ideal one stop shopping for Jed. And then tying back to the last point
  5. I've been slow to move off of this but I don't think there's much of a good argument for Caissie > Long at this point
  6. It's not nearly as bad as April. Honestly only three series in this stretch are all that intimidating. The next two against Detroit/Philly, and then @ the Yankees heading into the ASB. Teams like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and STL aren't bad, but they're not worth stressing over IMO.
  7. Honestly even setting aside his struggles Miller's spot was probably at least a little warm the moment they signed Brasier. Can't carry a ton of ROOGYs at once.
  8. I'll say if the rumor of Jed wanting to get a SP in house sooner rather than later is true, Gallen's easily the best option IMO. Bring him in, give Hottovy a month to see if his issues are indeed a quick fix him, if not (or god forbid there's further injury) go back to market at the end of July. Similar to Billy Beane adding Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester in 2014.
  9. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-diamondbacks-survive-their-rotation-troubles/ Ben Clemens lays out a fairly compelling case that he's simply throwing too many fastballs
  10. If we assume Birdsell/McCollough come back no worse for the wear, I think it's something like this for the upper level arms: Wiggins <gap> Birdsell <gap> Sanders Gallagher McCollough <gap> Kipp Noland Then for the further away guys the ones of note are Mule, Erian Rodriguez, and I guess Florentino. I don't know much about him but a double digit K game is enough to throw you on the radar. They're not really apples to apples with the guys above but I'd probably squeeze them into the gap between McCollough and Kipp?
  11. This makes what, the 4th or 5th double digit K game on the farm this year? I honestly think we might have had 0 last year, and the year before that a few from Brown but nobody else. Some of it is the opportunity of working deeper into games (10 of 22 is a lot easier than 10 of 18), but also Zombro definitely seems to be the real deal.
  12. Yeah I'm looking forward to getting more info too. From watching plus the little bit out there it looks like - Fastball 91-95 like you said. Plays WAY up because of its movement though - Big loopy curveball in the low 70s. Feels like these have fallen out of style so it stood out - Tight gyro slider in the mid to upper 80's - Slow change in the upper 70's with a lot of movement Honestly it's similar to Shota's repertoire but from the other side. The breaking balls are more north/south than east/west, and I'd be shocked if Gallagher's change grades anywhere close to Shota's split, but superficially there's a lot of overlap.
  13. Washington has no reason to settle for quantity over quality
  14. I'd assume Shaw/Horton/Brown are generally off limits in discussions this summer. Gore's the one guy realistically available that would be an exception. Probably to the point that he'd cost two of them.
  15. Given the timing a real TJ surgery would have knocked him out all of next year, particularly because it's his second. So it actually does matter quite a bit.
  16. He hasn't been toiling at Iowa long enough for that, but it's not way far off. I think too the stuff get underrated because of the velocity, but he's got a Justin Steele type of deal going on where his fastball is really more of a cutter. And 89-91 on a cutter isn't actually *that* light in the velo department. But good command, good groundball rates, and okay swing and miss? That'll play for a back end of the rotation arm
  17. Up to 19% CS. Hardly a Molina out there but under the new rules that's adequate.
  18. 6 shutout innings from Connor Noland. I really think if we needed him to he could make a couple starts and hold his own.
  19. 105 pitchers have thrown at least 50 innings. Among them Ben Brown is 30th highest in terms of pitches in the zone. He's 11th in first strike percentage.
  20. Gore's batted ball data is worse than Brown's. Which is not to say Brown's is good but to show what a more reasonable expectation is for a guy with sterling peripherals and poor batted ball data (underperforming your FIP by ~half a run)
  21. This next 8 games is *rough*. Gore tonight, then @Tigers (where we draw Skubal and Flaherty) and @Phillies (where we draw Luzardo and Wheeler) It immediately mellows out again with the Pirates, but this is probably the hardest short stretch of the year.
  22. Power is always the streakiest aspect of a hitter, and as you pointed out he's underperforming his xwOBA by a healthy amount.
  23. Cards are down three and the Royals have a pretty stellar bullpen. We're probably about to be up 5 games I don't want to get cocky but man if I was one of the other teams in the division it'd feel like it's getting late pretty early here
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