Bertz

*chanting* PONCE, PONCE, PONCE!

Good read on Caleb's time to throw numbers as well as the impact of drops

The both good and bad of this offseason is there's not a right answer. There's some stuff that I do think is straight up a bad idea (Looking at you, Geno Suarez), but broadly it's vibes. Do you want to a Top 5 position player group and an okayish pitching staff like in '25? Easy peasy, sign a bat and some relievers, trade for a SP. Do you want a more balanced team, top 10 on both sides of the ball? Easy peasy, add a quality bench guy or two and otherwise focus your resources on pitching. Does it matter if you do your shopping via FA or trade? Only a bit. There's probably not enough money to do all your shopping in FA, and you really ought to move one of the Iowa 4, but generally there's some freedom to take what the market offers.

GM Meetings start today. So don't expect the hot stove to immediately start roaring but I'd expect this week is when we'll start actually getting rumors and it won't be so quiet. For instance Jed said the Kyle Tucker talks started in earnest at last year's GM Meetings.

Good list. Count me as a +1 on Soto and Weaver especially. Some other names I like: Hunter Harvey: The injury history is a mile long, but if when he's healthy he'sa first division closer. I suspect if we offered up the closer role he'd take a pillow deal to come here Steven Matz: He's probably going to go to a bad team and give starting one last try? But he's been good since getting demoted to relief, and even when he qas struggling as a SP he was a guy that excelled the first tims through the order before falling off. I bet Hottovy could turn him into a multi-inning weapon Taylor Rogers: His results were poor after the trade but his peripherals were stellar. I think there's a very good argument that giving him a little more time with Hottovy will pay some real dividends

Looking at this seems more or less that if the Bears want to make the playoffs they need do at least one, maybe both of: - Get to 10 wins - Beat the 49ers in week 17

If nothing else I love that these guys are locking in that they will sign by Christmas. Pair it with this winter not having a generational talent up top that's going to hold everything else up and this *should* be a healthy paced offseason. Famous last words I'm sure.

They won't do it because Rome's dad clearly has no chill, but a really funny bit would be for Caleb's dad to go on social this week and complain about how he didn't get a single target after catching two passes including a touchdown last week.

I just think the juxtaposition is funny

Shortly before the Bears got it to 17 I was texting a buddy that this was like the exact opposite of the Saints game. That was a win that felt like horsefeathers because Caleb played like ass, this was a (I was assuming) loss that Caleb balled the hell out for.

Might depend if he will settle for two years. Like of you look at the top FAs list from MLBTR https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/2025-26-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html There's four relievers who they expect to get three+ year deals: Edwin Diaz (4/82), Devin Williams (4/68) Robert Suarez (3/48) and Keller (3/36). After that there's a bunch of guys expected to get two years and 10ish million a year. My guess is those latter guys are firmly on the table but 3+ years or 15+ per year probably aren't?

It's not the same people, and I don't think anyone is being unreasonable, but it's very funny to me that the two conversations happening on this page are dunking on the Cubs for not having any velocity in their rotation and "Let's sign Brandon Woodruff".

I would totally give Jeimer Candelario a spot. Eguy Rosario and Juan Yepez probably make some sense too? And of course too many pitchers to count.

LMG? More like LFG!

Right that's the disconnect. There's a "is Shota worth $22M" question and a "would you rather spend that money elsewhere" question. I think the answer to the former is yes, or at least close enough to yes to not be worth sweating. The latter's more of a judgment call. But if we're arguing the former while the subtext is a disagreement on the latter I don't think it's gonna go anywhere.

If you think $22M for one year for 2.3 WAR is a bad deal there's just a fundamental disconnect here that's not going to be crossed.

I guess a few random things: - As someone who focuses primarily on peripherals I don't want to speak out of both sides of my mouth, but Shota did put up an above average ERA and an xERA that was nearly average (45th percentile). "Shota was bad last year" feels strong - Shota's contact numbers against didn't decline nearly enough to explain his drop in strikeouts. He has some positive regression coming in that department, which actually already started in the second half (he was back up to nearly 23%) - Shota's fastball still graded out as a plus pitch this year because of the unicorn movement profile. Stuff+ of 102 (100 average) and PitchingBot Stuff grade of 52 (50 average). Also with the extreme rise he gets you very much do not want him throwing his fastball down more - It's likely at least some of Shota's loss of velo is due to the hamstring injury he had. His velo was 91.8 in '24, 91.2 this year before the hammy injury (in the cold of April no less), and 90.7 after the injury - 1/$22M just isn't a big commitment. Zac Gallen had a messier year than Shota and got a QO. Last winter a busted Walker Buehler got $22M because of two good playoff starts. We can't be like "the Cubs should act like a big market team!" and then quibble when they pay $22M for a pillow contract - We'll see what the other projections systems spit out, but Steamer has Shota worth 2.3 WAR next year. I'd absolutely pay $22M for that

Joe Adell is kind of a fun option for a RHH bat Cons - He's purely an outfielder, can't help with 1B or 3B - Even in the outfield, he was horrific this year - He's no longer quite Patrick Wisdom bad like he was a few years ago, but there's a lot of swing and miss to his game - He's pretty clearly a platoon bat Pros - He has huge power and top of the scale swing speed. Like here are his statcast numbers, look at all that red - He's a god damned monster against LHP. .261/.320/.583 the past two years. Yes you're reading that right that's an ISO over .300. He has hit at a 43 homer pace against LHP - He's clearly a platoon bat. Yes in one sense that's a limitation, but in another it means he doesn't have to take any playing time from Caissie/Mo against RHP unless he earns it - He's under control for two more years - He's only going to be 27 next year, so between age and the Angels' general incompetence you can reasonably wonder if there's a good deal more upside to be tapped - Speaking of upside, he had a disastrous defensive season this past year despite being plenty fast. You do have to wonder if better coaching, better positioning, etc. is a very easy way to juice those defensive stats

Pitcher homeruns are by far the flukiest thing in baseball. Like in Taillon’s three seasons here he's had two separate half-season long stretches of giving up dong after dong. He's come out fine on the other end both times. Shota is probably more Jameson Taillon at this point than 2024 Shota, and it's fair to be disappointed in that, but it's totally worth paying 1/$22M for that.

Great news. This opens the 45 day window so he has to sign before Christmas. Hopefully the other major imports are right behind him.

Gallen feels a lot like Shota to me. He's likely still a pretty good pitcher, he's very unlikely to be the pseudo-ace he was at his peak, and the qualifying offer assures it's not going to be super cheap to find out. Like Shota, I'd guess it's best for both the Dback and Gallen for him to just accept the offer.

Gut feeling is we're looking at something like this: - Shota accepts his QO - Jed circles back to the conversations he had last summer and pulls down a cost controlled starter in the Gore/Ryan/Cabrera neighborhood - Add a RHH bat in the $10-15M AAV range. Maybe that's Okamoto, maybe that's a trade for Taylor Ward, maybe that's Paul Goldschmidt - Sign a second tier FA closer. Robert Suarez, re-signing Brad Keller, etc. - Something a bit surprising or weird a la the Matt Boyd signing last winter. Cody Ponce? - Trade for a late inning reliever. Maybe one stop shopping and add Jose Ferrer into a Mack Gore trade or Ronny Henriquez into an Edward Cabrera trade? - Just a laughable number of small trades and waiver roulette using all the open 40 man slots

Shota got tagged

The Rockies' situation to this point has been SO BAD that this still probably helps, but lol

Each of the last three years the Cubs have had to use 8 starting pitchers. In '24 if they'd had a 9th they would have used him and moved Hendricks out of the rotation sooner. Last year Brandon Birdsell was viewed as depth coming into the year but had his AAA season mostly wiped out by injury.