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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Mule is shoving again through 4. Hoping he doesn't run out of gas and fall apart like last time out.
  2. Bertz
    The Cubs have faced 7 lefty starters this month. Three of them are top 10 in the league in pitching WAR (Skubal, Gore, Luzardo). Matthew Liberatore is one of the others, and while far from a star is certainly good. Probably worth keeping the quality of competition in mind when you see these numbers about the team's June swoon against LHP.
  3. Bertz
    Pitching. Let's call it Michael King at something like 6/$150M a year and Ryan Helsley at something like 4/$80M.
  4. Bertz
    Do you have the memory of a goldfish? Shaw was on fire like 3 weeks ago
  5. Bertz
    Yeah an underrated story around this team right now is how much cheap talent is on the roster and already contributing. You figure between 9 position players, 5 SPs, and a closer there are 15 spots on an MLB roster that have potential to get pricey. Heading into next year the Cubs likely have 5-6 of those filled with guys making the league minimum, and it wouldn't be crazy to see it get up to 8. Add in guys like Nico and Steele too and there's a lot of surplus value flying around. I've mostly bowed out of the Tucker conversation because it inevitably revolves into a rabbit season/duck season sort of deal but the team is set up to take one or two big swings because of how little dead weight there is.
  6. Bertz
    You definitely have unreasonable standards for what a rookie player's season should look like.
  7. Bertz
    Honestly pretty similar deal with Alcantara. Chase and contact numbers are flat, batted ball quality is substantially better. His line just looks worse because of a few more K's (probably not permanent given the whiff and chase #s) and a less flukey BABIP.
  8. Bertz
    Kevin Alcantara has been hearing all the slander
  9. Bertz
    ^Triantos since coming off the IL
  10. Bertz
    Why hello there Jostin Florentino
  11. Bertz
    Cam Sisneros continues to rake. Given his age he's probably not a major prospect until he's doing it at AA, but it's definitely interesting.
  12. Bertz
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/workmga01.shtml
  13. Bertz
    We've gotta move away from lucky=bad. You can be good and have luck make your results look great. It's not complicated.
  14. Bertz
    I really love the idea of Edward Cabrera as one of two starters, with the other guy being someone you could more confidently have start a playoff game this year. I think it does a few things: - Cabrera is showing some signs of breaking out, but if that ends up not panning iut you don't suffer the massive opportunity cost of making him your only guy this deadline - With three years of control after this, he's a long term enough piece that you can feel comfortable paying the prospect price even if there's not a deep playoff run this year - By acquiring two starters, you're insulating yourself from another injury re-inserting Colin Rea into the rotation - Cabrera's current weakness is the times through the order penalty. In the playoffs he should be a potent weapon shortened up to 2-3 inning stints
  15. Bertz
    Yeah Lugo's basically in the same situation as Stroman a few years back: - The peripherals make it clear he's having a pretty good year rather than the stellar one his ERA would imply - Even at his best his durability/finesse profile doesn't really fit the archetype teams prefer in playoff starters - The player option acts as a poison pill to shred his value Even if you want to be bearish on guys like Alcantara or Brown, Lugo's value is so nominal I'd be shocked if they don't far outstrip him.
  16. Bertz
    The Royals are also horribly desperate for outfield help so the fit goes both ways.
  17. Bertz
    I've noticed Gallagher going every Saturday instead of every six days as well. I wonder if some of these guys that are pitching well and in the process ars piling up innings are getting a set day of the week to subtly conserve their innings.
  18. Bertz
    Honestly a relief. His last two outings have been horrific (7 BB and a HBP in 9 batters) after seemingly righting the ship for like a month prior. Hopefully we can blame this injury.
  19. Bertz
    So it's definitely PCA or Tucker, I don't think anyone else has even a decent argument. PCA has generated the most raw value, Tucker's close behind and has had oodles of clutch. I do think Carson Kelly deserves some love though. Him going Aaron Judge for a month helped this team excel during an extremely difficult part of the schedule. Even with him coming back to earth he's still been IMO one of the biggest stories for this team.
  20. Bertz
    Circling back to this. You can't get too exact this far out, but right now payroll looks like it's about $170M to open next winter. That's ~$75M under the tax line. Lop $10M off for the general wiggle room Jed likes and you're around $65M to spend. Keller's about $18.5 and Bednar will probably be in the $8-10M range. Now we're down to the $35-40M neighborhood. Tucker if we're so lucky would likely eat damn near every dime of that himself. It doesn't look super hard to move money this winter. Alternatively if PTR is going to juice payroll for a year next season has looked like the logical one for a while. But it just should be noted that adding even a medium sized salary like Keller or Alcantara to next year's teams requires some future creativity or us to change some fundamental assumptions around team spend.
  21. Bertz
    Because of the pitchers friendliness of the Southern League his ~.800 OPS is a 137 wRC+. I wonder if we see him go to Iowa and Rojas to Tenn as corresponding moves. Given the calendar in a few weeks right around draft time?
  22. Bertz
    Keller's not a sexy move, but he's a solid pitcher and would help bridge the post 2026 roster cliff. I think you *have* to trade Taillon this winter if you add Keller now, but that shouldn't be that hard (presuming his dong issues are temporary like they were in '23). I also think this team deserves some benefit of the doubt in getting the most out of "boring" pitchers like this. Bednar is the prize though. He is back to being a certified monster of a closer. Adding him and pushing everyone in house and inning earlier really changes the complexion of that group.
  23. Bertz
    This tells me that either: - Fulmer is just on the roster as a warm body to take two innings at some point this series when the bullpen needs length - One of Brown or Horton is going to Iowa for Shota. It's not Colin Rea to the pen
  24. Bertz
    Probably that yeah. Though if Horton or Brown get sent to Iowa he could stick around a bit longer. Hodge seems likely to get a couple more outings at Iowa so Fulmer might have a week+ to try and show something.
  25. Bertz
    It would be great when paired with the return of Shota, but between how uncommon deals are this early, Jed's deliberate pace, and how turkey the standings are for a lot of bubble teams (e.g. Arizona) I'm skeptical. Levine was first on the Luzardo stuff last winter so who knows maybe he's sniffed something out.
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