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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Video
  2. Bertz
    Yeah Shaw's ready. I'm alright with it being a few more days because of the roster shuffling already in line with Happ coming back, but he needs to be a big leaguer again at worst in Cincinnati.
  3. Bertz
    Brett Taylor brought this up today but Iowa's rotation is pretty ragged. Brown, Flexen, and Horton are all up here in MLB covering for injuries and Birdsell is hurt. It's basically Wicks and Noland and then bullpen games. I obviously do not want Kenta Maeda getting MLB innings, but if god forbid 2-3 SPs went down in the next couple weeks we'd be looking at like Keegan Thompson starting games. A guy like this, maybe even a second one, feels pretty responsible to add.
  4. Bertz
    It would be really cool if he got hot and started delivering on that hype he was getting in ST
  5. Bertz
    Long has - Good Patience - A better than average groundball rate - Average Contact - Average raw power - An elite hard hit rate All that together is pretty damn good! The potential problem is he has an all fields approach, which is limiting the slug (and juicing the average). I probably wouldn't mess with him, it's a unique profile and I think that has value. But if you want more dongs you've gotta make him more pull oriented. And probably risk breaking him in the process.
  6. Bertz
    I'm not clamoring for it by any means, but if Noland had to start an MLB game in the next few weeks I think it'd work out okay.
  7. Bertz
    A bit, but nothing substantial Hard Hit Rate: 40.9% in April, 40.6% in May Barrel Rate: 9.6% in April, 10.3% in May GB Rate: 37.8% in April, 42.3% in May K's and BB's both went the wrong way as well, but less than a percentage point for each. Add it all up and the team's xwOBA has dropped a bit, from .350 in April (4th in MLB) to .341 (9th) in May. Their actual wOBA on the other hand has dropped from .348 (3rd) to .311 (16th). It's luck, these things ebb and flow. Everyone wants to make it some big failing but it's just something that happens.
  8. Bertz
    March/April BABIP - .303 May BABIP (coming into today)- .234
  9. Bertz
    Orioles are down early in Minnesota. If they don't come back they'll be 10 games under .500. Gotta be one of the more disappointing teams in recent history.
  10. Bertz
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    I decided to do a little Statcasting. Not sure how well links to there work but it should be a bunch of relevant stats by month going back to the start of last year. Caissie's power numbers picked up a bit in the second half last year, but have exploded this year. Hard hit rate over 50% both months is very good (80th-something percentile), but the barrel numbers are insane. For reference the average MLB barrel rate hovers around 8%. 20% is elite, there have only been 11 qualified seasons north of 20 since Statcast was implemented. Aaron Judge is the only guy who's ever topped 25 in a full season. The whiff rate is higher than last year, and last year was already kind of at the top end of acceptable. Here in May he's back closer to last year's range. He ideally would keep chipping away at it, but if the power is even close to legit it might not matter? Joey Gallo is right there as an easy comp. It hasn't manifested in increased production yet, but his xwOBAs have really jumped, so decent argument that he's been unlucky. Especially since, in addition to more barrels he's also juiced his pull rate (something I hadn't picked up on yet). He's at 50% on the year which is ~90th percentile. So tl;dr is that Caissie's batted ball profile is more or less perfect now.
  13. Bertz
    Why do you think I referenced Moises getting sent down in about a week?
  14. Bertz
    Caissie's contact numbers are slowly creeping up and he's keeping the GB% and EV gains
  15. Bertz
    Assuming he stays in a good place the next week+ I'd bring Shaw back up when they send down Moises
  16. Bertz
    Curious if Jefferson Rojas gets the bump to Tenn, and if not what they're looking for out of him before making the move. I wonder if they view Hernandez and/or Brethowr as close to being ready, if you hold Rojas back a week or two so that you can promote a cohort of guys up together. I think especially for a pair of middle infielders like Rojas and Hernandez there's some value to pairing them together as you send them up the ladder.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    I'm here too. I don't think Tucker and Seiya are both on next year's team.
  19. Bertz
    Moises Ballesteros is 21 years and 6 months old. If he was an American college kid he'd be two months out from being drafted. So let's all agree to be chill if there are some rough edges to his game.
  20. Bertz
    The Cubs have played 35 games against teams over .500; the Cardinals have played 20
  21. Bertz
    Honestly I think it's less deception and more approach. He's a guy who's always been a little wild but he is FILLING the zone this year. I think hitters are doing the Anchorman "I don't believe you" bit about his ability to throw strikes now and getting burned.
  22. Bertz
    Marlins are getting Ryan Weathers back tomorrow, though that doesn't change your overall point. Looks like as things line up currently we'll only see approximately 5 lefty starters between now and the end of the month. But yeah I'm with you I'm not too antsy on Turner. I'd probably give it to the end of the month to make sure there's not a hot streak coming and to feel a little more confident that whatever kid replaces him (probably Long) is ready.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah he's coming up on a month of rehab at Iowa, which is longer than he was initially injured. And it's not like there hasn't been movement in the bullpen to free up a spot for him. The team clearly doesn't like what they're seeing and Brasier is probably another outing or two from being ready himself.
  24. Bertz
    This is fun! I would hope he could get a game or two at catcher while he's up too. Maybe have him catch Horton's starts? Also while not 1 for 1 substitutions for each other, I would add this to the growing list of signals that the team doesn't think Turner's going to pull out of it.
  25. Bertz
    Neither Verlander or Ray look fully cooked, but they're both well above room temperature. We *should* be able to take one of these two and secure another series win. Their lineup is a lot scarier against righties than lefties though, so they probably won't roll over these next two nights like they did yesterday.
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