Bertz

I think it's worth noting that Alex Bregman is basically an Ian Happ caliber hitter these days. That's good, especially since he's an above average defender to boot. But Matt Shaw's probably a league average hitter or better, almost certainly a better defender, and 8 years younger. I think the gap there is smaller than you'd think and shrinking rapidly I think if you want to take Bregman over Shaw it would have to be one of two reasons 1. You don't like Matt Shaw as a person 2. Bregman + Caissie/Mo might be approximately equal to Shaw + Tucker *purely on offense*, and Bregman's only going to get ~half the total contract of Tucker 1 is fair and I certainly won't argue with. 2 I'm willing to listen on but I'd bet after you do a full accounting the juice isn't actually worth the squeeze.

I think it's very very likely that Shota is back next year, but it's roughly a coinflip whether it's via his option or via accepting the QO. His option makes him less 2026 dollars, but maximizes his guaranteed dolllars plus puts him in the driver's seat going forward. The QO maxes out his 2026 dollars and has the benefit of him not being eligible for a tag next winter. I feel like the merits of both make a lot of sense. I think Shota's probably not earned the Cubs picking up his option. But I also think he's way too good to not get a QO (horsefeathering Walker Buehler got $20M last winter). But he's ALSO not good enough to turn down thr QO (if he was the Cubs would pick up their option). So net net I think it is very unlikely he just walks out the door but I'm open minded about the mechanism for him staying.

Another pitcher worth keeping in the back of your mind is Tatsuya Imai Passan said about a month ago he's expected to get something in the $150-200M range, and obviously wouldn't have a qualifying offer attached.

The team generally uses the luxury tax line as its defacto payroll cap. The Cubs are ~$80M under that line right now heading into 2026, and that's assuming no options get picked up. Take out ~$10M for trade deadline money, another ~$20M for the various depth bench/bullpen types (e.g. the Caleb Thielbar and Jon Berti type signings), and there's $50Mish remaining to spend on more fun and impactful stuff. Even the most conservative estimate for Tucker is something like Corey Seager money (10 years, $325M), probably higher. So that's 2/3rds of your fun money right there. And if Shota picks up his option you're already tapped out. You can feel more comfortable dealing away some of the young bats for additional pitching if you've got Tucker locked down, but realistically you're staring at a pitching staff that is okay at best unless you get some really positive outcomes from Steele, Wiggins, and/or Brown. So unless Tom bumps payroll, that's the choice: keep the band together on offense and have a fairly shakey pitching staff (admittedly with upside), or fortify the pitching staff but replace Tucker with a gaggle of talented kids. I prefer the latter, but I don't think anyone is wrong to prefer the former.

It is 100% status quo. But I'm very comfortable with a situation where we keep the team's talent level flat while simultaneously getting younger. Especially ahead of the roster cliff next winter. If Tom wants to stop doing the crocodile arms routine for a year and we can have both Tucker and pitching, great. But asuming we have to choose I want pitching, and lots of it.

Yeah we're spending probably ~$10M on the position player group in this example? And I figure there's ~$70M to play with before any options. You're right I don't expect Long to move the needle a ton on a controllable pitcher, but maybe something more like Sandy Alcantara who's got a healthy salary? So let's call it something like this for spending $60M on pitching: - Long and Assad for Sandy Alcantara ($19M) - Shota sticks around on his player option ($14M) - Pick up Kittredge's option ($8M) - Sign one of the closers (Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, Robert Suarez) to a 3-4 year deal in the $15M range. I like Williams most so let's call it him - Spend your remaining cash (~$5M) on the best lefty reliever you can muster, let's call it a Drew Pomeranz reunion Full pitching staff of SP - Boyd, Alcantara, Horton, Shota, Taillon, Steele (IL) CP - Williams SU - Kittredge, Palencia MR - Pomeranz, Hodge, TBD spring training audition winner LR - Brown, Wicks I don't love that Boyd/Shota/Taillon are all FAs after '26. But you have Steele, Horton, and Alcantara (only if you want him) plus I'd like to think you feel solid about one of Wiggins/Brown/Wicks by then. And if you don't like Alcantara, I think it's pretty easy to throw a little more money at the rotation (Bieber?) and use the trade chips more on the bullpen.

I actually like the Goldschmidt idea. I think that might be the right level of bat to add. Caissie as the nominal starter in RF with a bench of Amaya Goldschmidt Alcantara Some infielder to cover 2B/3B (Luis Rengifo?) With Mo down at Iowa working on defense until there's an injury or Caissie flops. Long traded. That feels like a good balance of giving the kids rope but not so much they can create a black hole at the bottom of the lineup. Leaves the rest of your resources to get thrown at pitching. I do worry the fanbase will be weirdos about Goldschmidt. The guy theyd be getting and the guy they remember are not the same.

FWIW since I think we spent a lot of time worrying about this

Shota's option is for 3 years $57M. So to try and get a sense of how that stacks up market wise, here are SPs from the last three offseasons to sign a 3 year deal between $40M and $70M. An asterisk means that guy had a QO attached 2023 Zack Eflin 3/$41M *Nate Eovaldi 3/$54 *Chris Bassit 3/$63 2024 Seth Lugo 3/$45M 2025 Michael Wach 3/$51M Yusei Kikuchi 3/$63M Luis Severino 3/$67M (largely seen as an immediate overpay because rhe A's were desperate to get someone to go to Sacramento) --- I'll be honest, this bar is a lot higher than I expected. Feels like you really cannot pick up Shota's option. It sucks to have 60% of your rotation likely headed to FA after the season, but if he sticks around it probably needs to be via his option or the QO.

I think you can painlessly move one of the quartet of Iowa bats (Caissie, Ballesteros, Alcantara, Long) and one of the the Brown/Assad/Wicks trio this winter. Realistically that fourth bat and third arm are going to spend most of the season languishing in Iowa if you keep them around. Depending on how strict you want to be about defining "Top of the Rotation" and what the contract situation is of the guy you're targeting, I think that bat+arm combo gets you pretty far in a lot of trade convos. The better the name the more painful the convo, and the more likely you need to add a third piece of real substance. That said short of like Paul Skenes I don't see much out out there that would absolutely require guys off the MLB roster or Jaxon Wiggins.

In my brain Ayers is paired with Cam Sisneros. There were a bunch of times early in the year the MB was fiercely struggling, you'd check a boxscore and see they're up 8-3, but like 7 of those runs are thanks to these two damn 24 year olds. Basically this:

Bregman fell off hard in the second half. Shaw had a 130 wRC+ in the second half, Bregman had a 101. Seems weird for the person whose pretty much whole thing is "but what has the offense done lately" to advocate for Bregman.

Didn't see Jed's conference, but reading Brett Taylor's recap doesn't seem like much of consequence was said. This is probably the thing that stood out the most? Probably expect the Cubs to continue focusing on well rounded athletes on the position player side, guys who help you whether the wind is blowing in or out. One dimensional sluggers (say... Geno Suarez?) probably aren’t going to be where the team throws their resources. This one maybe too? The team wants more strikeouts, but probably not so bad that they're going to like take Taillon out back and shoot him.

Cease has some Edwin Jackson/Javy Vazquez to him, but the preponderance of what we've got says it's probably more bad defense than anything inherent to him.

The Athletic says Jed's end of season presser is today FYI

If the Dodgers complete the sweep and the Milwaukee goes 3-6 in the playoffs it's going to make the front page articles dripping with condescension about how much more intelligently built for October the Brewers are especially funny.

Even though it's an extremely hitter friendly environment it's good to see Ayers doing this against upper level pitching. He performed well this year but unfortunately as a 24 year old in A ball there's more or less no level of performance that can earn accolades. He's probably got to get to Knoxville by the back half of next year to get even close to an MLB trajectory.

The point of comparing Kirk and Moises is not "these are the same player on the same trajectory" but instead "here is another short tubby catcher. Not only is he not unplayable at the position, he's very good." It's a counterexample to writing off Mo because of his body type. Playing "gotchya" with minutiae about Kirk's career is beside frankly any point.

I haven't seen anything. It's usually like the Tuesday or Wednesday after the season, though that's generally been with them knowing exactly when their season is going to end. I'd expect this week, but hard to say beyond that.

And only 34 sacks

The problem is with these mega deals you have to get crazy value up front. If Tucker makes e.g. $40M a year on a decade contract, you're expecting $70M+ in production the first few years and that to be balanced by closer to $10M in production the last few. You're pushing for a lot of value up front. With how logjammed our corner situation is, I think you're not necessarily getting as much juice out of Tucker's production as you'd hope for. Caissie giving you ~$20M in production at league minimum plus the $40M in pitching you buy gets you a stones throw from Tucker on the front end without committing to the ugly back end. If Tucker played at a position of greater need, or if I felt more confident in the liquidity of the prospects it'd be moot. But I think it's a real and sizable consideration for us.

IMO Pros and Cons to keeping Tucker, given our current assumptions about resources and payroll: Pros - Tucker is the best player likely to be available this winter. Probably by a healthy amount - It is likely to be years before we get another opportunity at acquiring a hitter of Tucker's caliber. There may be trade options available sooner, but via FA I'm not seeing anyone on this list until the '28/'29 offseason - Given the post-2026 roster churn, and that PCA and Dansby earn their money primarily in the field, I think there is value in having an impact offensive player under contract through the roster cliff - It would be nice to know Jed + Tom have the will to win this kind of bidding war Cons - There is an opportunity in front of us right now to work through several very fun kids and see which one(s) worth keeping. That doesn't just automatically go up in smoke if you re-sign Tucker, but we have seen over the last decade that young hitting is not as liquid of an asset as young pitching - $40M a year buys some fun arms - There is significant opportunity cost when commiting to a decade long contract. So you really need to get value up front. I do worry that, through no fault of Kyle's, our stockpile of corner bats somewhat lessens that value. Put another way, beyond the question of whethet Tucker is worth ~$350M, there's a question of whether for the Cubs right now right field is a place to throw a $350M contract - It's a small considerstion but you do have to account for that 2nd round pick I lean towards letting Tucker walk, but it's a complicated decision for sure.

Did I miss where you brought something to this conversation beyond "I saw a picture where he looked fat"?

This looks good! It's a bit hard to get too confident until we have a better idea of who from Iowa will be in Chicago, because that reverberates down. A few things that caught my eye: - I'd be shocked if Southisene doesn't start in SB. I know the SB lineup is tough to crack, but Ty, Cepeda, and Kepley were the two best players on MB in the second half by a wide margi - I don't feel as confident about it as Southisene, but I'd guess Melendez also opens at SB. Jose Escobar likely gets a good bit of OF time which helps facilitate these two on the roster - Pending Caissie/Alcantara's placement and any depth signings, Bateman seems a pretty safe bet for Iowa