I think Busch has definitely been lucky, but that shouldn't diminish the fact that he's been quite good. Put another way, he has earned All Star level production and received MVP level results. Because Gambler's Fallacy is a powerful drug a lot of people will focus on that gap, but IMO we should be focusing on that All Star level performance.
I think too it's worth noting that Busch pulls a lot of his flyballs. As a lot of spilled ink around Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes the last two years has made clear, that's an objective way to 'overperform' your x stats. (and if Tom Tango weren't so horsefeathering obstinate should just be built into them to begin with)