Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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There's a similar one from Fangraphs a few weeks ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-will-the-brewers-do-if-theres-no-meatwaste/ Basically the Brewers are patient without falling into the trap of being passive, but realistically there's a definite talent deficit there.
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I mean Happ was a complete mess this past series, so having at least the option of going Seiya in LF and Mo at DH would be nice, no? Or if Seiya goes back to being ice cold. My point is mainly about options. Tucker's the one hitter in the lineup complete enough that he'll never ever ever come out, so it sucks that he's currently locked into DH.
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I'm curious how close we are to Tucker being able to play the OF, especially with all the off days coming up. Because once he can play the OF i think getting Ballesteros into the mix gets a lot easier.
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I like Preller. Frankly the league needs 2-3 Prellers to keep all the Jeds on track. But yeah, the window probably closed for them last night. If you assume they keep their payroll flat, they have ~$40M to replace quite a bit heading out the door in FA. Namely Cease, King, Arraez, and Suarez. If WC3 is as uninspiring next year as it was this year, Maybe AJ can keep enough plates spinning for one more go? But we're definitely near the end. And with the farm and the payroll bloat it's probably not a quick lay down for a year and come back good as new situation.
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Yeah I think especially with the game being sandwiched by off days you don't overthink it: just pitch Rea and have a quick trigger finger for the bullpen.
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https://bsky.app/profile/blandalytics.pitcherlist.com/post/3m2asw6mczc2y Not sure why this isn't embedding, but apparently the pitch to Bogaerts was a strike
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Yeah I think you try and go Rea for 3ish, Soroka for 2, if you're ahead go to the short relievers and if you're behind go to Assad/Civale
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You did it again
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Guy who can't figure out the Quote button is calling a hall of fame athlete a mental ******, sure
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Craig playing it straight
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I think I would do Castro for Shaw but otherwise play it straight up to start. Then I'd be very willing to PH Ballesteros as soon as a good PH opp comes up knowing that I can bring Shaw in at 3rd and shift Castro wherever needed. If this is a regular season game, even a relatively important one, I probably start McGuire over Kelly. But here to your point the juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze for what's likely one AB.
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I think the big questions today are: - How deep does Shildt let Darvish go? I think he definitely doesn't get twice through the order unscathed but once maybe he can bob and weave enough - Do Darvish or Taillon get any extra juice from being able to shorten up? - Are Miller or Morejon available? The answer *should* be no, but the Padres have an almost pathological need to fail the marshmallow test. And this is probably their last run (mayyybe next year) - Does Craig make the lineup as dangerous as possible for Darvish, knowing it might make the Padres' bullpen have an easier time in the back half of the game? - Darvish is one of the worst pitchers in the league at holding runners, but Fermin's got a great arm. So is this game a track meet or played more straight up?
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Hello, Old Friend(s)
Bertz replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
Darvish is more or less unplayable against LHP this year, and that's not something that's gotten better as the year has gone along. The Cubs are a very bad matchup for him (I'm definitely going to eat these words). I suspect the Padres' plan is Darvish once through the order, turn it over to Kyle Hart to get through the run of lefties in the front half of the lineup, then Michael King, then the short relievers. I also wouldn't be surprised if Shildt is just going to say horsefeathers it and run Miller/Morejon out there again. Something like this? Darvish (2) Hart (1) King (2) Morejon (1) Miller (1) Estrada (2) Suarez (1) Feels like you've gotta get to Darvish and you've probably got to get to him fast. I wonder if Craig loads the lineup up with all the lefties, or if he holds a bit back for later in the game. -
I might have missed it too but here are thr specifics
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Setting aside that sucked for the Cubs, that was really ****ing cool to watch If I'm counting right the Padres threw 79 fastballs: - 15 were 100 or higher - 40 (!!!) were 98 or 99 - 3 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!) were slower than 96, with the slowest being 95.5 Insane, I assume some sort of record unless there was a Skenes+Chapman game last year that topped it
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I have no idea why but the Tigers are +112 to win today. That seems like a major mistake.
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In the context of that post I meant four veteran locks as in we'll have four veterans who are guaranteed rotation spots heading into spring, barring injury of course. For roster management purposes I think that's important to keep in mind for gameplanning how you'd get Wiggins to MLB. For the names specifically, I'd say it's very unlikely Shota goes anywhere, but admittedly it's not a lock. I'd put Taillon in a similar boat. I think if Tom juices payroll this winter (unlikely, but this would be the time to do it if ever) or if Jed has no intention of holding onto Tucker, then the offseason gameplan would clearly be pitching pitching pitching, and there'd be money to both add a SP outright and also upgrade from one of the mid priced vets. I'll say I'm not super worried about Shota. He probably doesn't have another year like last year in him, but he's still missing bats and the models still like his stuff. There's probably some positive strikeout regression due that would make his peripherals look a lot more mid-rotationy. I think picking up his option is still a + EV move, even if its not the crazy bargain it looked like a year ago.
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I believe I read that he's back to practicing Basically him and Amaya needed the regular season to last about a week or so longer, but alas now they're gonna be relegated to cheerleading.
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Not the biggest fan of this but willing to let Craig prove me wrong
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They're certainly not down for the series, but you've now given the Cubs' hitters a fresh look. Morejon and Miller were definitely used in their ideal pockets of the lineup. And because they're now up against elimination, unless tomorrow they torch Shota or Cease goes really deep you probably have to plan on using them three days in a row, which *really* impacts performance.
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Really fun game - I didn't love Craig going with Palencia when he did, very happy to be wrong. Similarly I was a bit surprised at Pomeranz over Thielbar - Mike Shildt didn't do anything wrong per se, but using your top 3 relievers in a loss in a series this short *hurts* - I hope Dansby being the player of the game gets him a little bit of grace from the fans going forward. I don't suspect it will, but I'm hoping - Speaking of, did Tucker get booed after his K in the first inning or did I hear things?
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If the Padres are going to run this lineup out there I wouldn't risk an opener. I think there's more risk in messing with Shota's routine than there is benefit in avoiding having Shota see Tatis/Machado a 3rd time. It'd be different if the Padres had a couple lefty mashers up top but as is basically their entire lineup is worse against lefties or a stones throw from being split neutral.
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Playoff Eve Thread (Cubs v Padres)
Bertz replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Civale's been legitimately great out of the pen (unlike Flexen who was purely smoke and mirrors). Curious if he's purely for a game that gets out of hand or if the team thinks he's got a chance to put up actual worthwhile innings.
