It's been really good to see him turn it around. Early in the year he just could not miss a bat in the zone to save his life. The zone contact rate against him through the second Dbacks series was a Madrigal-ian 95%, and very much *not* paired with a Madrigal-ian lack of pop.
Starting with the Phillies series he's been missing bats like crazy, 61% in zone contact. He doesn't need to maintain that. or even come close. But if he can split the difference and sit approximately little south of 80% i think all the other pieces are there for him to resume the quality work he's done the last few years.
Caissie's backslide on contact rate has been one of the biggest bummers this minor league season, but it has come with him juicing his hard hit rate AND slashing his GB rate, hence all the barrels.
This July I want Jed to take a big swing for someone with team control. Someone like Mackenzie Gore or Joe Ryan. A foundational piece and someone not set to hit FA after '26 like half the team.
For now though? Like Squally laid out the absolute best case is an Andrew Heaney type. You're probably talking someone not too much better than Chris Flexen. Just stick with internal options like Horton or Wicks. You're getting some valuable developmental opportunity and you're probably not leaving a ton of production on the table.
Curious if Hollowell heads immediately back down tomorrow. It's becoming clear that under Counsell a 2 inning relief appearance for an optionable arm is a kiss of death.
Mild is still probably approaching a month?
I'd give Flexen this next start against the Mets and then I'm hoping Cade Horton fills in. You could easily line it up to go
vs. White Sox
@ Marlins
vs. Rockies
Pretty much couldn't draw up a softer landing
Horton dealing again through 4. Feels like we're approaching the point that he should make a spot start.
Assuming he's on a 6 day schedule, two starts from now would be a Friday 1:20 home game against the White Sox.
They're solid but I don't think anything more than that. Their pitching staff had a .229 BABIP allowed coming into tonight. Regression is gonna hit that group like a freight train.
Add in the schedule like you called out and I don't see anything more than .500 out of them.
Obviously it's still exceedingly early but if you win tomorrow and go up 6 on the Brewers it kind of feels like the scoreboard watching we do this summer will be much more focused on the NL East than the NL Central.
I wouldn't be surprised if PCA ends up having streak/slump cycles similar to Soriano:
- Prodigious hot streak
- Slowly expand your zone because you think you're a god who can't be stopped
- Reach the point where you're swinging at practically everything
- Deep cold streak
- Attempt more patience out of desperation
- Hit a point where the walks start piling up
- Pitchers start having to throw strikes again
- Prodigious hot streak
I LOVE the idea of stretching Keegan Thompson out. I probably don't want him starting MLB games but it's a much better idea than having some re-tread like Chris Flexen as your #11 starter or whatever
Among the many great things about this, timing is really good to have a game where we just go Brown to Flexen and give the rest of the pitching staff a night off.
I'd be pretty surprised by Jordan Wicks sitting 93+ like he's doing this season not being successful long term.
Like I am not calling for him to take Colin Rea or Ben Brown's job in the immediate term but I'm a good bit higher on him now than I was on Feb 1.
I would suspect ultimately that there is a "Keep 2, Trade 2" decision between Ballesteros, Caissie, Alcantara, and Long. It will largely be mostly based on their performances, but I also think there's a component of what happens with Kyle Tucker.
He also should overperform his xwOBA. Speed will give him infield hits plus extra bases on more solidly hit balls. He also is pulling a bunch of fly balls, which should should help his ~average power play up like we've seen with Bellinger and Paredes.
I would guess the .370/.300 gap he was running not too long ago isn't sustainable, but the .370/.340 he's running right now might not include much luck.
Since his breakout last July 27th he's got a 129 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR. We're talking 341 PAs too, so we're past SSS territory (though not so far past that we can call *this* his true talent level).