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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Two more thoughts: - The Nationals are pretty bad at pitching development. so there might be additional magic Hottovy can work - Losing Franklin likely means Kevin Alcantara sticks around. While not a slam dunk that felt like a bit of an either/or situation
  2. Bertz
    Things I like about this: - I'm consistently the "but his xFIP!" guy, so obviously I believe he's better than his ERA. Further, his numbers fall apart the 3rd time through. If this was a playoff starter, that's a major issue. For a backend guy 5 amd dive is perfectly fine - He is mediocre enough that I'm not worried about not getting another starter - Similar to Rea, there's some flexibility vis a vis bullpen vs. rotation Things I don't like about this - The lower levels of the org have had a bad enough year that I don't love giving up one of the lone bright spots like Cruz - That velo drop the last few outings is a bit scary
  3. Bertz
    I wonder if the Cubs end up being involved here as the second leg of a Preller special. Like this - Padres trade for Mason Miller - Cubs trade for Robert Suarez (maybe including McGuire in a deal since the Padres are down so bad for catching help?) - Padres use that freed up $$$ for a bat, Marcell Ozuna maybe?
  4. Bertz
    Oof, Mule had a very bad game. A lot of his games this year the line has ended ugly but it's like "he was cruising through 3 and then got tired and lost the zone" but very much not the issue today. Yet another guy where it sucks that we don't have A- ball for him.
  5. Bertz
    Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen each had him Top 40 in lists that came out in the last week
  6. Bertz
    This is a really good point. It's pretty clear the Cubs want a guy who could start a playoff game this year and still be under controlnext year. That leaves, barring someone surprising being available: - Sandy Alcantara - Mitch Keller - Joe Ryan - Edward Cabrera - Mackenzie Gore Those first two guys likely have broad markets because their salaries limit the prospect cost. Those other three? They feel like Cubs or bust. Dodgers and Mariners aren't shopping SP, and other teams don't have the expendable prospect capital.
  7. Bertz
    Do you have any setting between irrational exuberance and clinical depression?
  8. Bertz
    The sense I get from the rumors is that the team REALLY wants a cost controlled SP, but if they can't make that work they'll pivot to a monster reliever. So like, making up names for effect, Plan A would be Edward Cabrera and Raisel Iglesias, while Plan B would be Merrill Kelly and Griffin Jax. If you start seeing the Cubs more hotly connected to the primo closers, IMO that means be prepared to be disappointed on the SP front.
  9. Bertz
    You always want to have at least one guy at AAA who you would be comfortable starting a big league game. Between injuries and Brown's innings reset Wicks kind of needed to just hold tight at Iowa as that guy. Now with reinforcements close I suspect that if both are still in the org past the deadline one of Brown/Wicks will own the Chris Flexen long reliever role going forward the rest of the year.
  10. Bertz
    Alcantara making a last push to get traded in the next 30 hours and probably be a big leaguer within the next few weeks
  11. Bertz
    I don't know if I agree with this. There's a reason that when Rosenthal or Passan say something we immediately go "Wow, interesting, so that would likely mean..." and when Nightengale or Bowden say something it's always prefaced by "Look I know this bozo is always wrong, but there's nothing better to talk about so I'm posting it anyway."
  12. Bertz
    Assad sitting 92 through 2 innings. Solid enough, though ideally he'd be closer to 93.
  13. Bertz
    There's also this I hate to beat a dead horse, but "we need to protect from our rookie 3B struggling" and "we need some additional CF depth" brings me back to one oft-mentioned name.
  14. Bertz
    2.3 fWAR pace since he came back in May. And that's not accounting for his wOBA/xwOBA gap or the fact that DRS likes his defense a heck of a lot more than Statcast does. I don't think Shaw is better than Suarez right now, but I do believe the gap is small enough that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
  15. Bertz
    Yeah with Assad and Taillon looking like they're each approximately two weeks out there's maybe not that same desperation for merely competent innings. Like I'd still LOVE Bieber as a second SP, but I think there's less need for someone in the Morton/Houser/Soroka tier.
  16. Bertz
    This from Passan stood out to me
  17. Bertz
    Caissie/Alcantara/Long back in the Iowa lineup. and joined by Amaya on rehab
  18. Bertz
    If you read what Trueblood just posted, plus what has been out there in the Athletic and ESPN, it really sounds like the team wants 3 pitchers: - An impact type, ideally under control for a few years. A legitimate core piece - Another solid pitcher, ideally not too prospect expensive - An opportunistic buy to help lengthen the staff. Opportunistic could be a salary dump or an injury risk or someone that needs to be pitch-labbed, but this guy won't cost a ton of prospects I think it's pretty clear the above should be two SPs and a RP, though I don't know if the team is dead set on that. I would hope that reflects optimism around the health of Taillon/Assad?
  19. Bertz
    Not shocking, I assumed he would last a few more days but him making it through the weekend was always in doubt
  20. Bertz
    FWIW when Rosenthal posts stuff this direct it tends to be "when" more than "if"
  21. Bertz
    Worth noting before people get their pitchforks out that Longenhagen was the low guy on Caissie and Mo coming into the year. So it's less that he's dropped them and more that he hasn't bumped them up.
  22. Bertz
    In addition to this I also think over-weighting the last two months is problematic because the Cubs faced a murderers row of opposing starting pitchers in June. If you look at Baseball Prospectus' DRC+ metric (their version of wRC+ that happens to also include opponent quality) from May 22 onward the Cubs are 2nd in the league at 114 and the Brewers are 23rd in the league at 97. The Cubs are just a much much much better offensive team.
  23. Bertz
    A bearish take on Keller. Though I think you have to consider that there's potentially some untapped pitch-design work to be done given that some pretty smart pitching teams are so hot after him.
  24. Bertz
    Answer: The last 48 hours
  25. Bertz
    My understanding is it's 3 things: 1. The GM is a consigliere. I remember Theo telling a story that during the Arrieta deal Jed basically pounded the table to have Theo ask for Strop too 2. The GM usually has a specialty area they came up from, and might continue to own that area. So like Hawkins was a player development guy in Cleveland, so I'd imagine most of the coaches and minor league staff have their work flow up to Carter rather than Jed 3. The GM usually owns smaller transactions, especially during busy periods. For instance at these past winter meetings the Tucker trade and the Carson Kelly signing happened pretty close to each other. I suspect Jed took the Tucker deal and Carter took the Kelly signing. Right now it might be Jed owning the SP and bat searches while Carter owns the RP search
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