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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Lot can change between now and then of course, but at first blush the only really rough stretch is the end of April with @Phillies Mets Phillies @Dodgers @Padres
  2. Bertz
    Verlander's gotten a bit better as the season has gone on, but this is still a game the Cubs should win. Win today and split the next two.
  3. Bertz
    It goes H2H, then division record, then record against the rest of the NL, then starts getting weird with "Last half of Interleague games" Yeah the Padres have 7 more against the Rockies and 3 more against AZ, we have one series each against Pitt, Cincy, and St. Louis. Padres definitely have an easier road, though the Cubs' is hardly scary. Not impossible the Cubs outplay the Padres in those 10 games, but I would guess if they do they'll have won the #4 seed outright making it moot.
  4. Bertz
    Yeah I believe the magic number for the playoffs is 23, and the Reds need to take 3/4 in the upcoming series to win the tiebreaker and avoid it dropping one more. The Cubs can pretty much limp to the finish line and still play a playoff round at this point. Home field in the wildcard round is tighter. Padres are likely going to win the tiebreaker, because they have a stellar in-division record on account of bludgeoning the Giants and Rockies. So I think it's officially 29 but more practically is 30.
  5. Bertz
    I tend to think like Jason that a SP of substance is coming this winter, via FA if we lose Tucker or via trade if we hold onto him. That said I do wonder if you're right about Soroka sticking around as a second signing. As much as Rea has exceeded my expectations this year, I'd still love to swap in Soroka in place of him over the winter. With Steele due back, a big fish presumably also coming in the door, and the IP concerns around Boyd/Horton/Brown much less acute, there's hopefully less of a need for bulk innings next year. I certainly don't think the rotation is in a place where we can jettison a bunch of depth, but I'd happily swap Rea's rubber arm for a different swing pitcher that I feel better about on a per inning basis.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    The funnest thing about Cepeda is that the contact is trending way up lately. He's been hitting for a while now, he had a 112 wRC+ in April/May, the only one of the teens to do a damn thing at MB early in the season. But the contact numbers were pretty awful until here in August, where they're at a league average-ish 22.6%. That's not to say we're in the clear, Lumpuy backslid hard after he seemed to get his contact demons under control a month or so back, but it's a good sign.
  8. Bertz
  9. Bertz
    Southisene has a .461 OBP the last two months and is somehow the less annoying of those two
  10. Bertz
    I think there's a difference between "I can't command my slider" and "I trust my command of my fastball more". The Yankees have had A TON of success acquiring guys with crazy fastballs and then having them lean primarily on their secondary pitches. Palencia's young/unestablished enough that I wouldn't change too much too soon, but long term he should probably push from 80/20 fastball/slider like he is now to something like 60/30/10 fastball/slider/splitter. Maybe even further.
  11. Bertz
    Command
  12. Bertz
    Nearly half of those games (11) were played at Wrigley with the wind blowing in. It's not just some annoying coincidence that the pitching was great and the bats struggled.
  13. Bertz
    Kyle Hendricks sinker is 86.5 MPH. A league average changeup at this point is 85.8.
  14. Bertz
    I would guess it's unlikely the team makes a 40 man move at this point. There's probably some wiggle room for someone Rule 5 eligible in December, like Martin, but I think Long and Wiggins are huge longshots. I suspect the expanded rosters will be pretty boring. I think on the pitching front the team will start carrying all three of Assad/Brown/Wicks instead of just 2/3. And then at some point Soroka will come back and knock one off the roster. On the position player front it's similar. I haven't seen anything especially concrete on Amaya's timeline, but I suspect we see one of Alcantara/Ballesteros until they can give way to Amaya. I suspect the decision on which prospect bat depends on whether the team is comfortable with Ballesteros getting any time at all behind the plate. He's obviously not going to start a bunch of games but what about in a blowout?
  15. Bertz
    Love Kyle, would be totally cool with him showing out today, but this lineup is not a good matchup for him. I'd say all of our lefties plus Seiya you feel good about connecting against a guy who throws soft stuff mostly low. Maybe he can channel Max Scherzer or Andrew Abbott and have a bunch of screaming liners get hit directly at defenders for 5-6 innings, but I'd be surprised if he legitimately holds this lineup down.
  16. Bertz
    I think it depends on whose rotation is healthier at the moment. Right now the Dodgers have all three of Yamamoto/Glasnow/Snell, so you'd much rather face the Padres. Who knows how long that'll last though, and Cease/King/Pivetta isn't *that* far behind.
  17. Bertz
    @Brock Beauchamp Can we add Ty Southisene and Kade Snell?
  18. Bertz
    Man I'm sure glad I'm not one of the dummies who spent the last few weeks horsefeathers talking Tucker
  19. Bertz
    He's a 23 year old with a little over a half season's worth of PAs under his belt. And as hot as he's been lately his full season batting line is still below league average. I don't think we're anywhere close to the point where a disservice is being done to him developmentally. Also I don't know if I fully buy Trueblood's "Busch optimized his swing to only hit RHP" thesis but I do think it's interesting that he finally got something approaching full playing time against lefties in July and then now he is in his his first prolonged funk of the season.
  20. Bertz
    It's pretty obvious at this point that the team is shielding Shaw from right handed sinkerballers. Pretty much every "why isn't Shaw starting" complaint the last few weeks has that in common.
  21. Bertz
    Wiggins is for real pitching, no fakeouts
  22. Bertz
  23. Bertz
    I am too, that said it would have been very easy to IL him this week and they didn't, so I'm hoping that's a positive sign.
  24. Bertz
    It would be a really good day for a blowout so that Horton and Brown could take all 9 and give the short relievers a breather
  25. Bertz
    Shaw's defense is actually pretty interesting because by the eye test he's pretty stellar, but Statcast hates him. Fangraphs has two defensive stats: one from Statcast and another called DRS. Statcast is purely automated, while DRS is based on people watching film and grading every play (very very similar to PFF grades in football). Statcast says he's been 3 runs worse than an average 3B this year, ranking 13th out of 16 qualified 3B. DRS has him at +9 runs, second in the league to only Ke'Bryan Hayes. Personally, I tend to trust Statcast completely in the outfield, while for infielders I think there's more nuance (tricky bounces, baserunning, etc.) and like to split the difference between Statcast and DRS. That'd put Shaw as a +6 3B. Well above average but not really in the Gold Glove discussion. That lines up with the eye test IMO.
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