Bertz

As expected, ChatGPT is wrong: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zac-gallen/19291/splits-tool?position=P&splitArr=266&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2002-01-01&endDate=2025-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1

Japanese pitchers aren't a mystery box anymore. We have the same absurd levels of detail on their velocity/movement/angle/command as any domestic pitcher.

Ferrer is really good too. Like not too far off of Daniel Palencia if we're being honest.

I think it's worth noting that at the deadline Gore was pitching MUCH better, came with an extra playoff run's worth of control, and Shaw had not 111 wRC+'d his way through August/September, and the Cubs weren't willing to include Shaw then. I think I'm with Cuzi that it's Gore+ for Shaw not the other way around.

Me to Cristian Hernandez apparently

I guess on Gallen if this does end up going further, like most here I wouldn't be a fan. I poated this a few weeks ago Gallen's very similar to Shota in that he's probably still a good pitcher who just had a bad season, but being an ace feels like it's fully in the past. If he were replacing Shota I'd be down for the signing, but he's just not good enough to be our top guy this winter. If the team signs Gallen for me to end up happy with this winter's haul they either need to add yet another SP (which necessitates a Taillon trade) or aim way higher for a bat than I had expected the team to do coming into the winter. Both feel exceedingly unlikely. The former because of how strong this case of FA SPs is, the latter because I don't imagine the budget can fit Gallen AND a big bat.

LMAO classic Bob. He did get mostly vindicated on Pressly (the NTC hadn't been dealt with but the teams had agreed to a deal),so we're not totally out of the woods, but usually he's just plain wrong.

I actually think you still trade one of Mo/Caissie unless someone (the Nats might?) absolutely insists on Shaw in a SP trade. Shaw mashed lefties last year with a 125 wRC+, we have no adequate short term depth on the infield, and then of course Hoerner is in his walk year. Shaw is much less redundant even after a Bregman signing than the lesser of Mo/Caissie. Also randomly he's fast enough I bet he could back up CF if we gave him ST to learn.

Come on don't be ridicu--- *Puts finger to earpiece* Apparently the Rockies are signing Paul Goldschmidt and Andre McCutchen to 9 figure deals because they were still superstars last time Paul Depodesta warched a baseball game?

Baseball teams make it tough to say things like this definitively with their ridiculous title inflation, but I believe this is a step up. Byrnes was as far as I can tell the #3 or #4 guy in LA and is now clearly #2. I'd also guess he's pretty close to a partner with Depodesta. I.e. more of a Theo/Jed dynamic than a Jed/Carter one. Honestly the bar was so low in Colorado I do suspect Depodesta + Byrnes is going to be a major upgrade.

Something interesting Sahadev Sharma brought up on his podcast: Alex Bregman would have actually hit more homers at Wrigley than he did at Fenway this past year. Philly and Sacramento are the only parks he would have been expected to hit more. A bit surprising because I think the vibe is that he's, while not as extreme, in the Paredes/Bellinger mold.

It's not substantial enough for its own rumor, but related to the smoke around Bregman is this from Jeff Passan's Winter Meetings preview this AM So the interest apparently isn't just in Bregman as a one-off.

You've made this point previously but something worth noting is there wasn't even a whiff of Kyle Tucker news before the start of last year's meetings. The expectation was the team was going to focus on pitching, and Max Fried sounded like the top realistic target. So while we think we know the state of play it's good to keep an open mind to new info. That said based on what we think we do know I suspect it's going to be a fairly quiet meetings for the Cubs, I think they come away with a reliever or three and that's it. My gut says Imai is at the top of their SP wish list right now and that bidding likely won't be settled for a few weeks, which makes it hard to move on too much else. We likely get more clarity on direction as pieces come off the board, but I expect that to be the main takeaway.

Did we ever find out what Zeglin missed all year for? But yeah the deck is stacked against a guy who will play next year at 26 and is likely going to still open in A ball. Even with what sounds like a pretty insane changeup.

The calculus for me involves a good bit more confidence in Shaw, but yeah I don't have a lot of interest in this. If you're willing to spend approaching $30M per year on Bregman why not just go up slightly to the $35M range and retain Tucker? Or add an extra year or two and add Bichette? I suspect though that this is merely a backup plan. Based on all the chatter it sounds like the team really is intending to pull down a free agent SP of major substance. If the team is currently allocating something like $25M to a FA SP and $10M to a righty platoon bat, it's not hard to see dominoes falling in a way where a pivot to e.g. Mackenzie Gore and Alex Bregman makes sense. Like you it still wouldn't be my top choice, but I understand the consideration.

I guess a few things make me not worried about it 1. I do really think the team should move one of Mo or Caissie this winter. Even if they get their SP in FA do a Michael Busch trade from the other end or something. But I think there's a lot of redundancy there, and if you commit to one this winter a lot of those "where is everybody gonna fit" worries start to fade away quickly 2. Teo's glove is a joke but it's not completely unplayable. The Dodgers have back to back rings running him out there everyday in RF because DH was spoken for. I think something like what they did with Seiya last year, 70/30ish between DH and outfield, is probably fine 3. Two of the last three seasons Teo has not played at a level commensurate with everyday playing time. So I think it's fair to give him shortside platoon duty and make him earn more from there. If he hits like he did in '24 we're in classic "good problem to have" territory

The Cubs currently have exactly 1 player in their outfield/1B/DH mix who you can confidently expect to hit left handed pitching.

A couple things on Imai that have been rolling around in my head - The Imai rumor mill seems to be following the same trajectory as the Shota Imanaga one from two years ago. Whenever he's written about broadly it's profuse with praise, whenever a specific team is talked about it's like "eh we're not huge fans" or "eh we don't have the cash" - Jeff Passan said that Imai might sign at the winter meetings, but generally with these high profile imports they sign a few days before their posting window closes. I mentioned a few days ago that would suck because the FA SP market is expected to pop off over the next week. So I like seeing Levine mention trades because it does feel like if you're Jed timing probably dictates you need to sign a non Imai SP next week or juggle him against trade alternatives as we approach the new year - Ken Rosenthal's notes article this morning, primarily about Teo Hernandez and Imai, was co-written with Patrick Mooney. This made me raise an eyebrow especially after the Cubs were barely talked about - One of the Athletic podcasts after the GM meetings stuck with me. They were talking about how different the vibes were and made a comment like "and hell Jed's actually talking to Scott Boras this year". Boras' roster this winter is mostly bats, with Cease, Gallen, and Imai as the main exceptions Nothing groundbreaking, just stuff that's catching my eye.

Given that his contract is fairly underwater, those deferrals actually probably make the financials easy. Dodgets hold onto those deferred dollars, other team takes on Teo's "real" money and gives up something of a little value. Assad for Teo + that money kicked in sounds pretty reasonable for both sides?

I wouldn't think so. Their rotation is pretty full. They'd probably love a good swing arm or someone they could stash at AAA, but Jamo doesn't feel like a good fit for their roster right now.

Ken Rosenthal notes this AM that while the Dodgers are not full on shopping Teo, they're talking about him with teams. He's one of the better lefty mashing power bats in the league right now, and his contract is very much mid sized. The outfield defense is a disaster and he provides no coverage at 1B, but offensively he's a fairly perfect fit.

I think a good expectation for Caissie (or Mo) that toes the line between optimistic and realistic is something like Michael Busch's rookie year. Michael Busch put up a roughly 120 wRC+ as a rookie, and that game with the benefit of significant platoon support. Busch, like Caissie, took two go arounds at AAA. Busch, like Caissie, improved significantly his second go around. Busch, like Caissie, very much felt like he had mastered the level when he finally got his cup of coffee at the MLB level. Unlike Caissie, Busch was able to get his K rate under 20% in his second go around, which led to him being a tier better as a hitter at AAA. That said I think that is balanced, hopefully more than balanced, by being three years older at the same career step. But Caissie just being 1 for 1 a Kyle Tucker replacement is probably something like a 95th percentile outcome. It's not impossible but if we're already seeding expectations there then this highly petulant fanbase is going to eat him alive. Let's not do that.

via Sharma this AM So I'm presuming they didn't want to add that 7th year

I actually like this idea a lot. Eric Longenhagen's scouting report makes it sound like he's a hell of a defender, strong baserunner, and has good raw power. So even if the hit tool takes a major beating on the trip across the pacific that's a guy that can help you win in a lot of different ways. I'd be terrified to hand him a starting job, but to nip at Matt Shaw's heels and provide some insurance if a middle infielder gets hurt? Hell yeah. I do think ideally a Song signing would come with a trade, as there are only so many at bats to go around. Right now on the position player side we are looking at: - The 8 returning everyday hitters from last year - Amaya as the backup C - A TBD veteran right handed bat (there has not been a lot of clarity on what they're looking for beyond handedness) - Three of the Caissie/Ballesteros/Alcantara/Long quartet Song would likely take one of those three slots earmarked for the kids. That's not necessarily a problem, his skillset doesn't overlap any of there's all that much. But I don’t like the idea of two of the kids having to be banished to Iowa at all times. So if e.g. Caissie gets dealt for a SP and the teams adds Song, great! If the team adds Song and now Caissie's got to continue away toiling at Iowa despite OPSing .950 I'm going to scream.