Bertz

Ah good catch! Just fixed it. Yeah it's tough. Like most years Longenhagen hasn't finished until damn near draft day, and those last half dozen lists are basically out of date the second they go live. But at the same time they are so much more thorough than any others (particularly for teams that ST in Arizona), so you don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth. I feel like they should do those "Imminent Big Leaguer" articles promptly at the start of the winter and then he can take his sweet time writing about lower levels and complex league miscellany.

18. PCA 26. Matt Shaw 28. Kevin Alcantara 49. Cade Horton 68. Michael Busch

Brewers moving laterally takent-wise just to get older and add a 9 figure contract to their books?

Bob Nightengale says Willy Adames is in fact available post Burnes trade. That would potentially be a twofer because it'd make the Brewers worse and depending on where he went take another Chapman suitor off the board.

I would be very reticent to count on a guy becoming a FIP beater off of 90 innings, though adding a tumbling changeup would certainly be a way to make that happen. I think for me it's about the velo. In '22 Carl was a shade under 95 MPH and even if you give him zero credit for soft contact he had the peripherals of a worthwhile middle reliever. Last year he was under 94 MPH and of course ended the season on the IL with a shoulder injury. If he is healthy and can get back that MPH he lost between '22 and '23 I'd be happy to give him first crack at a spot in the pen. If not he's emergency depth that needs to get comfortable in Iowa IMO.

If Jed adds Scott (or Puk), the bullpen is suddenly a real impact unit. - You've got four guys you could comfortably ask to close a game on day one of the season in Adbert, Merryweather, Neris, and Scott. - Strong matchup options against lefties (Leiter) and righties (Almonte) - Righty (Assad) and lefty (Smyly) long relief options - Two "stuff monsters" from each side down at Iowa (Palencia, Little) - Two strong matchup options down at Iowa (Horn, Cuas) - A fringe top 100 SP prospect who most people expect to end up an impact reliever, also at Iowa (Brown) - The Manager generally considered to be the best in baseball at managing a pen It's lacking a fire-breathing Hader/Diaz level super reliever (though Scott pitched like one last year) but otherwise that would be an extremely exciting group.

Yeah one of the Marlins lefty relievers, with Scott being the most likely, should probably be the assumption.

I don't think they're a threat at all on Bellinger. They're too left handed in their OF/1B mix as it is. But yeah this would potentially crater Chapman’s market. Like his options would seem to be the Cubs or a small market or rebuilding team like the Tigers or Nats coming out of the woodwork. Maybe the Angels make Rendon a full time DH?

ZiPS sees him holding onto most of his contact gains, forecasting a 16.9% strikeout rate this coming year. I think to me the most compelling pro-Bellinger evidence on the power front is still the Isaac Paredes defense. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-meandering-examination-of-fly-ball-pull-rate-featuring-stars-of-the-game-and-also-isaac-paredes/ Basically if you pull a disproportionately high number of hard hit fly balls, you don't need as many of them to rack up dongs. And Statcast backs that up, Bellinger hit 26 last year, and if you look at expected homeruns by park https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#xhr-park There were 17 different home parks where he would have hit at least 23. I don't feel the most confident in this being a repeatable skill (why i still hope for a short term deal), but it wouldn't be crazy to find out it is.

Left handed Ben Brown and...we don't have a great comp for Ortiz. Matt Shaw who's a little less toolsy but major league ready right this second?

The Brewers have a chance to be pretty bad. They have enough sophomores and prospects in the upper levels that they could make the transition somewhat smooth, but Wade Miley is their #2 SP and their best hitter might be their catcher? Like you don't have to squint to see them net a lottery pick.

https://twitter.com/abeds15/status/1753211959313379587?t=55KBq7ISjUhgxm8rO0H7KA&s=19 Okay this one might be a thing

I think Morel's trade bait unless/until his bat reaches an impact level or he finds a home defensively. Right now there's room on the roster for him, but by August if PCA and Caissie aren't already up they are likely pounding on the door, and odds are one of the kids opening at Tennessee goes supernova and is doing the same. We'll also generally know by then if Busch is the goods. If Morel hasn't locked down everyday playing time outside of DH by then you've gotta cash him in as a trade chip with a team that can use him at 2B or in the COF.

This is obviously meaningless, but like we're a couple hours away from February so whatever

I really get the vibe that Preller doesn't expect to be the GM in San Diega in 3 years and so all of these ludicrously long contracts are a "not my problem" deal.

I'd guess it's closer to a 50/50 split going forward. Ross broke in Amaya very gingerly, but that's because he was big into the softer factors of catching and Miguel joined the big league club mid year. Hendricks (who calls his own game) and the kids (who Amaya had worked with in the minors) got quite a bit of Amaya starts. I expect in 2024 as a from the jump member of the MLB team I don't expect him to get fairly even billing behind the plate. I don't think there's a ton of upside in grabbing an alternative to Amaya either. Catching prospects (and honestly veterans too) are notoriously fickle because of the rigors of the job. Amaya looks like an above average bat (by catcher standards), an above average framer, and got fairly glowing reviews for his leadership behind the plate last year. The one bugaboo last year was his throwing. That was actually a reported strength coming up through the minors, so there's some hope that another offseason removed from Tommy John surgery helps there.

I still think one of the DH's can be a fit even after Bellinger. It pushes Morel into more of 10th man role but that's fine. We know Counsell is big on load management, we know there will be IL trips, etc. It makes it a little harder for PCA, Caissie, etc. to force their way onto the roster, but depending on your POV that might be more feature than bug. I think the potential limiting factor is more resources than playing time. TBD on how many dollars Jed still has in his piggyback, but for me the priority list for the rest of the offseason would go: 1. One of the Boras 4 (probably Bellinger) <large gap> 2. Late inning reliever 3. Additional Bat <medium gap> 4. High-end Rehabbing pitcher (Woodruff or Hendriks) 5. Middle Inning Lefty Reliever The team doesn't necessarily need all five of those things, but if Jed comes down with three of them (inclusive of #1 obviously) I'll be pretty happy with how this winter ultimately turned out.

"Owen Caissie: Consensus Top 50 Prospect" is something I think is pretty warranted but still shocked to see. I'm looking forward to the pretzels Keith Law ties himself into when he leaves him off of his list though. He was doing his Keith Law thing last summer and talking down to everyone excited about him because of the K rate. A little surprised at no Busch or Alcantara. I feel like leaving either off is fine but both is weird since they're so diametrically different (extreme tools and ceiling vs. extreme production and floor).

A lot of really great stuff here! I especially want to see Smyly move towards a real slider. Like you pointed out his death knell last year was the reverse splits. I'd love for him to get back to getting lefties out even if he gave back some of his ability to handle righties. Having a lefty long man that we could piggyback with Taillon would be pretty savvy IMO. One thing I'm trying to be very mindful of this year though is not buying too much into any pitch design stuff. I think the Taillon sweeper saga was my "fool me twice, shame on me" moment. When this stuff was newer there was a ton of low hanging fruit and the success rate was extraordinarily high. But now that it's been a few years I think we've reached the "there's no free lunch" zone. Guys will obviously make changes and level up, but I need to see it in real games before I buy in too hard. Either way, I don't love Smyly getting another shot at the rotation. I'm not as down on him as most, but I think in order to forego leaving a lane open for Wicks/Brown/Assad I would need someone who has a reasonable shot of throwing up 3 WAR. If Jed wants to do a late trade for Bieber or Luzardo cool, but we don't need Smyly in the rotation, don't need to sign a Hyun Jin Ryu, etc. There were scenarios where Jed purged some pitching depth in trade where a vet #5 starter made sense (e.g. Soto), but it looks like we're past the possibility of anything like that happening.

Given the Cubs open in Arlington this is notable, especially paired with half their rotation eying a 2nd half return.

That sounds pretty fair. Given all the injuries there's a decent chance that Harvey's medicals are a huge mess, but talent/control wise that feels in the right neighborhood. Similarly I tend to think Canario+ for one of the Marlins lefty relievers makes a ton of sense for both sides.

If the pen had another closer caliber arm it would be a legitimate impact unit IMO. Aiming a little lower, I wouldn't hate a boring-ish (but still quality) middle relief lefty like a Scott Alexander. Not an absolute necessity with the guys already in house but I think it'd help.