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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I do think Mastro's got more offensive production in the tank than he's shown thus far, but we're talking like an 80 or 90 something wRC+ depending on how aggressively you platoon him. The defense has looked spectacular this year so I'm happy to give him more playing time, but if he's a starter on this team things went really off the rails or he hit like a 99th percentile outcome. He's much more likely to be this generation's Tommy La Stella than anything more.
  2. Bertz
    I think it's pretty clear that Jed is viewing contention on a longer time horizon than the fanbase, and it's pretty clear PTR is fine with that. The team was expected to win ~85 games coming into the year, and they're tracking towards ~79 at the moment. The standard deviation on preseason projections is in the 6-8 game range. This season has been a disappointment, but a pretty normal sized one. We're talking like a 20th percentile outcome? That's not to excuse the underperformance thus far, but it is to put its likelihood in perspective. Jed and the Cubs showed very little urgency this winter, and I remember specifically a Carter interview at the Winter Meetings where he mentioned not wanting to block all the kids. I imagine there was not a ton of additional payroll available, but if Jed's rolling a 1 or a 2 was going to cost Jed his job we would have skimmed more off the farm to bolster the team without majorly impacting payroll. Instead he stuck to his guns, got some left tail outcomes on a couple of positions that already didn't look great to begin with, and here we are. It's been mentioned that Jed's contract runs through next year, I'd guess that next year needs to go well for him to earn an extension, but that there's very little chance he's outright fired.
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
    More information about "Are the Philadelphia Phillies & Houston Astros Interested in Cody Bellinger?"
    The Philadelphia Phillies are an absolute powerhouse this season, currently sporting the best record in the game. One of their few holes in the lineup are at center field; Johan Rojas currently leads the team in plate appearances at the position and his dismal 60 OPS+ is a clear spot to upgrade down the stretch. The Phillies will have some choice in acquisitions, though. Along with Cody Bellinger potentially being available (pending medical results of his hit by pitch last night), the White Sox are looking to trade Luis Robert Jr.and the Marlins recently announced Jazz Chisholm Jr.is also on the block. While that's stiff competition, a healthy Bellinger should require far fewer trade assets to acquire. It's Ralph so take with all appropriate grains of salt. Edit: Additionally, it appears the Houston Astros, a team that has completely turned it around after a bad start to the season, are also interested in the services of Bellinger.
  5. Bertz
    This was definitely the easiest matchup on paper coming into the week, but I still find it very hard to believe we'll be able to hold this offense down much longer. I just ask that if we lose we are able to do so in a way that saves the pen for this weekend.
  6. Bertz
    The schedule should hopefully help. After they leave Baltimore they don't play another scary team until the Yankees in early September. There will certainly be tough series between now and then, but it's very much dependent on how the starting pitching lines up. E.g. the Pirates are scary if you draw Skenes and Jones in a series, very manageable if you don't. Ditto the Tigers' depending on whether or not you face Skubal. September's a little rougher, you have vs. Yankees @ Dodgers @ Rockies (I worry about games at Coors no matter how bad they are) @ Phillies But it's also interspersed with some light Nationals and A's matchups.
  7. Bertz
    I haven't updated my little Christian Franklin on base bonanza fun fact in a few days. Starting with 6/19 he's played 19 games. Here are the number of times he's reached base by number of games 0x - 1 1x - 2 2x - 7 3x - 5 4x - 4 I assume Triantos and Shaw are heading directly from the Futures Game to Iowa and Franklin simply must join them.
  8. Bertz
    Curious if this is an "it's broken" IL trip or an "he needs a couple days and the ASB is Monday so might as well" IL trip.
  9. Bertz
    Assad is starting one of the games of the doubleheader on Saturday unless there's a setback. Wicks I believe is trending towards the end of the month, and Brown sounded not too far off until pregame yesterday they mentioned his neck is still bothering him. So tough to say on that last one but the others are close.
  10. Bertz
    Honestly they haven't really had a prolonged easy stretch this season. They were supposed to have one in late May/early June with that heavy dose of Pirates and Reds, and then they got Skenes and Jones both Pirates series and Greene/Lodolo both Reds series.
  11. Bertz
    I know the scouting reports say Birdsell's got a plus fastback but I was still expecting it to be 93.something when he got in front of tracking. But no he was 94.8 and topped 96 a handful of times. Good stuff even though he got hit around a bit.
  12. Bertz
    The Cubs are 3.5 out of a playoff spot and depending on how you feel about the top of the AL Central the schedule is pretty light until September.
  13. Bertz
    Horsefeathers, the last update on him was pretty promising
  14. Bertz
    Oh for sure. I'm very much a "wins are wins" type and don't think having a big bopper does much extra beyond aesthetics. But based on the fanbase's whining they would hate him. I don't love Paredes specifically because like I said his lack of raw power makes his margins feel quite small. But on the other hand it's hard to overstate how much adding a 4 win 3B with such a light salary would have on this team in the immediate term. It would feel kind of like the Quintana trade.
  15. Bertz
    I think Paredes has done it long enough to prove it's skill and not luck. However, he is the hitter equivalent of a finesse pitcher like Kyle Hendricks. I think it's fair to wonder how that will age. Also despite his true talent looking like a ~130 wRC+ I think considering a guy with raw power comparable to PCA does not feel like the "big bat" that anchors the lineup like so many people think the team needs.
  16. Bertz
    This is the big thing I was hoping and expecting to see. Busch has probably been fairly fortunate from a batted ball standpoint, but also there's nothing in his profile that says his K-rate should start with a 3. Something in the 27/28% range is a lot more reasonable. So less luck on balls in play but more balls in play should mostly cancel each other out.
  17. Bertz
    The fanbase scoffs at Suzuki/Happ being considered a big bat, so if you want someone substantially better than them your options are basically Vlad Jr. and Soto. This is the list of the top projected hitters in the league right now: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rzips&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc The only guys who might possibly be available in the next 9 months are those two, Brent Rooker (do you really want to buy high on him?) and mayyyybbbbeeee if things go just the wrong way for the Astros Kyle Tucker.
  18. Bertz
    Fun matchup, though I hadn't noticed how much Burnes' K-rate has dropped this year. Despite the sparkling ERA he's probably not an ace anymore. Still very good but more Justin Steele than Cy Young. Not related to tonight, but the Cards getting rained out last night and having their DH today looks like it's going to have us miss Sonny Gray this weekend.
  19. Bertz
    Birdsell tomorrow
  20. Bertz
    Very successful first outing for Merryweather, 1-2-3 with 2 KS. ALSO, Savant classified two changeups as fastballs, dragging his average "fastball" velocity for the day down to 91. Don't have a heart attack like I did, he was actuallt sitting right around 96, down a bit for him but not at all alarming as he works his way back
  21. Bertz
    You're really seeing the light at the end of the tunnel with the bullpen woes - Hodge and Little have been studs for a few weeks now, pitching well AND doing so in leverage spots - Leiter was a bit wobbly right before his IL stint but has otherwise been phenomenal, and showed zero rust tonight - That was a phenomenal debut by Bigge, and he's been crushing it as the Iowa closer so it's not out of nowhere - Palencia looked like he was similarly making the leap before going on the IL. He's healthy again and has had a few good outings at Iowa since coming back. Probably an option post break - Merryweather is starting his rehab tonight. With how long he was out he probably needs like a half dozen outings before he can come back up but still we're likely talking before the end of the month - The returning SPs should have some positive cascading effects on the bullpen
  22. Bertz
    For anyone watching the SB game, what a secondary pitch(es) is Kilian going with as a reliever? The curve probably? Maybe the cutter too?
  23. Bertz
    I really want him to hit, his skillset just compliments the roster so well
  24. Bertz
    Bigge staying instead of Roberts is a bit surprising, though Ethan's definitely been getting by on smoke and mirrors thus far
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  25. Bertz
    Yay Merryweather. On thr flipside I'm super curious about Assad. Is he starting on Friday or Saturday or no? I guess 3 weeks is probably short enough to forego a rehab outing, but I sort of expected one. And if it's not Assad/Hendricks/Wesneski in some order Friday and Saturday I have no idea who's making that 3rd start. Bullpen game since we're so close to the ASB?
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