Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Didn't he have two passes hit defenders in the hands and get dropped? I remember karma more or less working out for that game.
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Yup. And I think it does a certain amount of separating out WR performance from QB performance. I would guess that's why even the recent numbers are fairly pedestrian is a lot of this production has been DJ Moore generated.
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Fields since coming back from injury has QBRs for each game of 72.0 41.6 65.7 18.0 64.0 66.0 Average those out and you get 54.6 (technically I should weight these by dropbacks but that's more work than I'm willing to do right now and would only change the number a smidge). If that was Justin's full season QBR he'd rank 17th in the NFL between Mayfield and Stroud. In the same neighborhood as Goff, Lawrence, and Carr. So even in the best stretch of Fields' career he's been slightly above average? I feel like the arrow is still pointing up a bit, and if we didn't have the Panthers pick I'd be happy to continue building around Fields. But we do have that pick, so IMO the only reason to keep riding with Justin is because of the Bears' sad QB history and fear of the unknown.
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Despite the calendar and the grousing, the offseason is pretty young. 6 of MLBTR's top 10 FAs are still on the board, 10 of the top 20, and 28 of the top 50. Last year 41 of MLBTR's top 50 had signed by New Years, and Andrew Benintendi at #15 was the top rated player unsigned. If you look around the league though, there does not look to be a lot of demand, so the situation might not change very quickly. The Giants and Yankees are signaling they are likely to pull down high-end SPs, but everyone else is indicating they're focused mid-market or lower. I've gone through each non-Cub team below based on what's out there for them (or failing that their history), and it very much looks like a lot of the same (in quotes to avoid endless scrolling) We'll see what Jed does with his opportunity, but at this moment waiting out the market looks like it could pay off.
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In my mind a Matt Chapman reunion still seemed pretty likely before reading this. I'm a bit nervous on the pitching front, but things are playing out for Jed to absolutely clean up on the position player front.
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Red Sox do not appear to be shopping top of market
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None of these feel like a good idea. Maybe the last one if it's some sort of complicated swell-opt or something, but even then probably no. I'm extremely into Bellinger on something like Carlos Correa's first deal with the Twins (3-4 years, high AAV, opt-outs after every year), but not really under any sort of long term deal. Relatedly, I think history is going to look back at AJ Preller's '22-'23 offseason as just an unmitigated disaster, nearly as bad as his very first one where he traded every prospect with a pulse for Matt Kemp et al. Giving decade+ long deals to guys outside of the Harper/Machado/Seager class of FA's is so unbelievably dumb. The early extensions to Machado and Darvish being a mess was easy to see coming as well.
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Is it? Because if you look at the MLBTR free agent predictions https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html Yamamoto and Lee absolutely destroyed expectations, and most everyone else has come in at or under.
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Okay yeah I think they're planning to grab Cease
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He's very much an "it depends on what's added around him" type for me but I've definitely eyed him.
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Even if every individual extension was smart in a vacuum in aggregate I think what AA has done is dumb and a huge unforced error
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There's this weird thing where you're not allowed to criticize the Braves because "har har you're just jealous." But like I'm jealous of e.g. trading for Sean Murphy, not locking him in for 7 years. The former was cool the latter seems pretty dumb.
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Maybe? They were $30-40M under the tax this AM, needed one SP (and were talking to James Paxton about a reunion), and had been sniffing after Teoscar Hernandez. Now they've given themselves another $10M but opened another hole. I kind of think this puts them more on Bieber/Cease, but realistically they could go anywhere.
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Saves Boston ~$10M but puts them down a SP
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The specifics on the money probably impacts how heavily Boston gets back into the SP pool. They were purportedly just gonna run it back with James Paxton prior to this.
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Reds need pitching bad, but they're also very cheap. I could see either side to whether this takes them out on Cease/Bieber.
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I hadn't actually checked but that makes a lot more sense. I do doubt he's even as high as BBTV has him listed though. Like this is the quick writeup Eric Longenhagen has on his player page
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I....don't have a good sense of how BBTV got there. I don't see Westburg on top 100 lists and he was fine but not amazing in his debut. Like he's valuable for sure but I chalked him up as approximately Wicks/Brown valuable. If not him though one of the others, the O's have A TON of infielders right now
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TT mentioned Santander several times early in the offseason. I didn't like the idea then because I *sigh* thought Juan Soto was much more likely than he ended up being. But I love when guys are true switch hitters, and his salary is notable but not problematic. Santander along with either Bellinger or Chapman or Hoskins would make for a pretty damn strong lineup. I also wonder if we could do some one stop shopping in Baltimore and grab a 3B. The Orioles have too many infielders to count, maybe send Baltimore either a second arm or a higher caliber one and grab one of their second tier IF prospects (Jordan Westburg maybe?).
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- anthony santander
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That's a false choice though. The Cubs have, COVID aside, always spent right up to the LT line. We have good reason to expect they're going over it this year, but we *know* Jed is going to spend at least $40M this winter. We also know Jed is very conservative in regards to pitching depth, so it's silly to think a SP addition isn't earmarked for (it's pretty clearly the 2nd biggest hold on the roster after 1B). Jed might miss on one of the lefties, there are only three of them after all. But the realistic worst case scenario is like Bieber or a Stroman reunion, not just letting it fly with Wicks and Assad both in the opening day rotation.
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lol okay. Two things and then I'll drop this: 1. You keep starting these conversations. Anytime I bring up one of the lefties you jump in and respond telling me how you don't think Jed will sign one. Don't pretend like I'm chasing you around the site shouting you down 2. You went apeshit recently when someone told you to calm down and touch grass, so the whole second half of this post is rich
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The Angels biggest signing under Perry Minasian is Tyler Anderson at 3/$39. The Orioles biggest contract since before Trump took office was Alex Cobb at 4/$57M. You have gone out of your way to constantly mention that you don't think Jed will sign any players to big contracts (the 9 figure deals for Dansby and Seiya don't have any bearing for...reasons) and you're literally bringing up these poverty franchises as more likely to pull down a top player? Jed might not sign one of the big pitchers. The difference is that I'm watching the market and waiting until after he actually fails to start complaining and you're watching the calendar and assuming he already has.
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Such as? Show your work. Who are these teams you're scared of? The teams I am/was scared of grabbing a top pitcher are Boston, San Fran, and the Yankees. With Boston making this move, I see three teams definitely in the market for a top SP and three top SPs. If another team grabs one of those top guys I will start to get nervous, until then I'm not going to play these Chicken Little games.
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Giolito was projected to get Taillon money. He bet on himself by taking way less guarantee in exchange for a little higher AAV with an opt out. Again not sure the consternation is warranted.
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We is us, here. People here would be PISSED if this was the Cubs' big pitching addition, and rightfully so.
