Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I think the expectation is two bats and two relievers. With the smoke around Bellinger and Hoskins, combined with the fact that it's pretty tough to see a lot of alternatives for either of them them (Giants for Hoskins...and who the heck knows for Bellinger), I'm starting to chalk them up as more or less inevitable. The relievers it would be foolhardy to anchor onto one or two. Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore have each gotten mentions, and they're the approximate level of cost and impact I expect so they're the placeholders in my head right now. Chris Morel and the trade market are where I think there's some opportunity for wiggle room. My expectation at this point is they're just going to try and make Morel at 3B work. If it doesn't, Madrigal can step in and be adequate until one of the youths or the trade deadline can address the position more satisfactorily. If he doesn't get run at 3B, he would seem to be a trade chip. We know from all the local writers Jed's been working the phones with other teams pretty hard. I expect a couple of trades, even if they're minor ones around the bullpen or bench.
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Why would they decline the option if he's good? We live in a world where Sean Manaea got 2/26 after showing a new pitch and some brief strong performance. If Shota's putting up 3 WAR seasons no one's going to flinch about holding onto him at 3/50. He'll be 32 not 42.
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This is a pretty good deal for both sides and I wonder if we see this sort of thing more often for high variance guys. If I read this right, then basically: - If Shota's good or great it's 5/80 - If Shota's average-ish it's 2/30 - If Shota's bad/hurt it's 4/53
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Again keep in mind that Heyman is usually quite plugged in with Boras
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Yeah based on when I looked at future payroll, I expect that over the next three offseasons Jed is only going to make 2-3 more long term contracts of substance. He is absolutely not going to use two of those limited bullets right away this offseason. Smart money for the rest of this winter is one of Bellinger/Chapman, a 1B/DH of the opposite handedness (lets say Hoskins and Belt respectively), and two setup caliber relievers. Maybe another pre-FA SP like is being discussed in the other thread or some fiddling with the bench.
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I think I like Assad as a starter more than most, but yeah I'd still like to dangle Morel in front of teams like the Mariners and Tigers and grab an optionable young starter like a Bryan Woo or a Reese Olson.
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Matt you've brought up a modified 6 man rotation before and I'm wondering more and more if that might be in the cards. Literally thr entire rotation has some IP questions - You laid out Imanaga’s but he's got some shoulder stuff plus generally as a Japanese import he's used to pitching once a week -Steele's huge innings jump last year would probably necessitate some extra rest - Kyle's not far removed from a major shoulder injury, plus generally he's no longer a spring chicken - Assad's the only one of the youths you'd feel comfortable going much past 150 innings It could stand to help things all around.
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Around 5ish years ago Jim Callis left BA for MLB.com and John Manuel left for a team job (Twins I think?) in pretty quick succession and yeah it's been pretty much a rag since. Really sad too I used to buy the Handbook every year.
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This is an extremely cool gif
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So at this point with Imanaga on board and indications being the team only wants to add one vet SP, it seems very unlikely that we trade Morel for a frontline guy a la Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo. Knowing that, which of these do we think is the plan? 1. Sign two bats for 1B/DH, e.g. Bellinger and Hoskins, and Morel's only guaranteed path to everyday playing time comes via playing an adequate 3B. A bit of a high risk high reward proposition 2. Only sign one bat for 1B/DH, Morel will play everyday at one of those spots depending on which bat we end up with. It's a waste of his athleticism but you *know* you can get his bat into the lineup every day 3. Still trade Morel. Instead of being a part of a big time trade, do something more in the challenge trade mold like to the Mariners for Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. Even if Jed's shopping list has changed Morel's lack of fit on the roster hasn't
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We'll wait for details obviously but sounds like Kenta Maeda's first deal. Wonder if Shota's health is a little more suspect than we realize.
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I'm really excited for this move. I've been stumping for Imanaga and/or Glasnow basically all offseason. And if you had told me Imanaga was only going to get $15M per year I would have been that much more obnoxious about it. I'll also mention for like the 18th time that the projection systems actually think he's better than Yamamoto on a per-inning basis. The lack of groundballs and the resulting dongs are going to keep him from being elite, but he throws A TON of strikes and misses A TON of bats. Unless you're giving up a Lance Lynn-esque number of homers that's still going to lead to strong production. It also sounds like there might be some low-hanging fruit from a pitch design standpoint. I'm hoping that lack of familiarity gives him a strong 1st half season, and they can make whatever repertoire tweaks to keep the ball in the park in time for his second go around the league.
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I don't know if we see any more big signings, I think those are on Boras' timeline rather than Jed's. That said I wouldn't be surprised if any of the trades that Jed is apparently working on are fast follows. Or bullpen arms. It's very clear Bellinger is going to hold out til ST or just moments before, so there's not really any impotice to wait on him to do more. If anything getting everything else locked in probably pushes Boras to the table faster.
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So probably more or less exactly what Senga got? That's awesome.
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I'm most glad about this because rotation options were getting perilously thin. This winter a GM can sign two decent 1B/DH types blindfolded, so if Jed wants to wait until President's Day or whatever to do the rest of his shopping everything should still be fine. (Please Jed for our collective sanity do not wait that long to make your next move)
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There was some thought that the rush of teams saying they weren't going to get him was a sign he wasn't going to get the 9 figure deal he wanted. I'll say with the posting fee he cracks $100M but not without.
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BTW two bits of required reading/watching about Shota
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I swear to God if Bob Bob's this I'm going to lose my mind But also, yay!!!!
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It's possible, the reporting was that he came stateside and did on-site visits over the last week or so. Usually though the physicals come after an agreement though, so my expectation is still that this gets wrapped up tonight so they can travel, hammer out the contract, and do the physical tomorrow.
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Craig Mish is, as far as I know, the most plugged in reporter for the Marlins. So this is pretty meaningful If you're you're wondering if the Marlins are willing to trade someone sounds like the answer is probably yes
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It's tough, he's definitely got a connection or three, with one of them obviously being Ian Happ. But he's also a moron. When I click a BN article and Brett didn't write it I usually react about like this.
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I mentioned him a few pages back. Bell would be a good way to defray the cost of one of their fun pitchers IMO.
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Feels like this is more or less done. I imagine Shota's agent is going around the room one last time to see if anyone wants to add a year or a couple million of AAV and put it away. Gut still says Cubs or Angels.
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Where to hit Hoerner is a really tough question, and I think for me depends on who gets brought in to bolster the offense. He's a contact guy and as you point out here is especially strong against top of zone fastballs. I want him somewhere to help mitigate that weakness of someone else in the lineup. For example Chris Morel gets eaten alive at the top of the zone, so for example something like a 5-6 in the lineup of Morel-Hoerner would for make a lot of sense. If Wisdom and Morel are in the lineup on the same day you definitely want Hoerner somewhere in between them.
