Bertz

David Robertson is a reverse splits guy, so I would sign him in lieu of a lefty. We know he likes the city and the coaching staff, at his age he's likely just looking for a one year deal, and with a couple hundred saves under his belt he can do the mentor thing for some of our younger relievers. He's at an age where things can go south in a hurry, but literally everything else about him is perfect for what this team needs.

Phil Maton is basically a righty specialist, almost unplayable against lefties the last two years. He gets elite spin rates....and that's about it? He had a sparkling ERA last year but doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals so it looks like luck. If he was the #2 guy we were adding instead of Almonte it'd be not my first choice but fine. But Jed needs to aim quite a bit higher for the other reliever. Ryne Stanek's peripherals aren't as good as I would like, but he actually does have a history of outperforming them. His ERA is a run lower than his xFIP for his entire career. He's also an elite stuff guy. Of the 347 pitchers who threw more than 50 innings last year, Stanek was 15th in velo and 9th in Stuff+. He's not my first choice but I'm not going to like flip a table if he's the primary reliever Jed adds.

The Cubs are a "benefit of the doubt" team when it comes to acquiring and developing relievers. They're not infallible like the Rays, but since the reorg post 2019 their list of wins is much longer and more impactful than their list of losses. That said, this other reliever needs to have a minimum level of certainty and track record. Almonte is a developmental add who you can easily see ending up as a Fulmer-caliber part of the 2024 pen. But this team needs a guy who you could trust closing a game right away on April 1st, no wish casting required. Of the names we've seen bandied about I think Ryne Stanek is probably the minimum acceptable option in my mind. I don't actually think he clears the bar of what I want on a performance standpoint, but the stuff is so hyper-elite I'd make peace with him as the big addition.

It seems likely now that if Stroman had opted in Jed wouldn't have done anything with the rotation. I think extending Hendricks is something that made more sense then so that you dont have two rotation spots to fill at the end of '24.

They traded Darvish, the Cy Young runner up, for four 18 year olds. As much as we'd like to handwave it away it is exceedingly difficult to trade long term money. Doubly so if guys have NTCs. Happ, Seiya, and Dansby already have them, Bellinger and Chapman would probably get them too. Hoerner would be the only position player without one. If you lock up Chapman and Bellinger, payroll in '25 and '26 is already within ~$20M of the luxury tax. So unless Tom is cool going over three years in a row (which he wasn't at the end of last decade), you're done with major FA signings until 2027. Fine, we can sit out FA, Jed doesn't do much there anyway, right? Well you've got 6 lineup spots locked in with veterans meaning your options for improving the lineup deal are: - Focusing just on 1B/C/DH, three positions that don't tend to get a lot of impact talent making it all the way to FA. We do have prospects at these spots, but if you need to improve the lineup do you want to count on that improvement coming from kids? - Trading Hoerner, the guy who is 31st in WAR over the last two years. Not exactly easy to improve on that - Do nothing, acknowledging the position player group more or less is what it is for a few years, and just focusing on the pitching staff Unless the launch of Marquee has fundamentally changed the team's financial equation Jed's got two, maybe three, long term deals he can sign over the next three years. Using those bullets on Chapman and Bellinger, guys with obvious warts we've been discussing all winter, just because they're the guys here right now is the adult equivalent of the marshmallow test.

That's my read too. Only question is if they do a full teardown next winter or at the '25 trade deadline.

Cool, now bring me Stephenson and/or Robertson

How many non-elite players do you really want locked up long term? There's an opportunity cost to that path not just with dollars but roster spots.

I think Chapman/Bellinger each have pros/cons. Pros for Chapman - You can much more safely assume he's a 3.5 WAR impact player - While it didn't manifest in dongs in 2023, he's got MUCH more power than Bellinget - I think most of us feel better about Tauchman than any of the motley crew of 3B currently on the roster - The over/under is probably right around $100M as opposed to $150M for Bellinger Cons: - His offensive skillset, i.e. being a RHH hitter with + power, lots of K's, and a giant hole at the top of the zone, is very redundant on this team. He's more or less Wisdom with a few more walks and a lot more defense - He's 2.5 years older than Bellinger - Bellinger having been here for a year proved that he's a fit with the coaches/players/city. There is a higher chance of Chapman going all Heyward on us just because we don't *know* thatt all of those soft factors are going to line up right - Bellinger seems likely to gracefully slide down the defensive spectrum from being a CF to a plus defensive corner guy. Chapman’s value is likely to fall off a cliff when his defense at 3rd goes, because the logical next step is 1B I think broadly I like Chapman a little more for 2024, but think Bellinger's a much much better fit beyond.

I haven't run across this brand of internet tough guy in a while. Feels like I drove through a tunnel and woke up in 2015.

From Sharma. I STG if they sign Phil Maton and hang the Mission Accomplished banner I'm going to lose my mind.

I think what's far more likely is that the next year, maybe two, are being viewed as a "Last Dance" sort of deal before they enter another slash and burn cycle.

So, it looks like you can add Statcast stats as columns on your custom dashboard? So like if I do that I can see that e.g. Ben Brown's fastball averaged 95.6 last year, Riley Thompson averaged 93.8, etc.

Was wondering who the heck was going to come down with him

I didn't initially see it last night when Brad first posted this so there might be phased rollout or something going on.

I'll say that last year after his first couple starts, Hendricks' success felt pretty real and earned. I think he got lucky with some at'em balls his first few starts, but quickly knocked off the rust and settled in. The data backs this up too, from 6/28 onwards he had 18 starts with a 4.13 ERA and a 4.09 xFIP. And as you mention there were real changes to velocity and approach (and obviously health) which make you think last year was pretty real and not just a dead cat bounce. I understand the projection systems not liking him anymore, they shouldn't, but I also think he's the easiest call on the roster for exceeding those expectations. Prime Kyle isn't walking through that door, but if he can be the #3 starter he was last year it makes this pitching staff pretty feel much more legitimate.

Fangraphs now has Statcast data (plate discipline, velocity, etc.) for AAA players. As Brad notes later in the thread right now I only see it for players who have also played in MLB, so guys like Busch/Morel/etc. I'm hoping that is just a temporary thing as this is clearly WIP.

476 pitchers threw at least 30 innings in MLB last year. Jordan Wicks ranked 431st in K rate and 459th in Stuff+. Now I think the Stuff+ number on Fangraphs does a piss poor job of measuring changeups, but still he's clearly below average from a stuff perspective. I like Wicks, I'd probably give him the 5th starter spot to open next year. But I'm not supremely confident in him succeeding immediately to open next year and I'm frankly pretty down on his longterm upside.

I think this is right. I think too, even in the situation where we roll snake eyes and none of those things go right it's probably more of a 1 WAR disappointment than the -2 WAR disaster 1B was last year. If Jed plugs the other two holes on the roster by pulling down Bellinger and adding a closer caliber reliever 3B would be pretty tame as a weak link on the roster. It can always be addressed at the deadline too.

I believe Bob Nightengale said something very similar. That might simply be because Bellinger's the biggest name on the market but who knows maybe Jed has something impactful up his sleeve beyond Bellinger and a high leverage reliever.

The one position the FO seems to be willing to give Morel a vote of confidence on is 1B. It's a waste of his speed and arm but he's going to be an option there. His bat is playable there too. Also Bellinger feels pretty inevitable at this point, so he'd keep the floor at 1B pretty high. 3B and Catcher are the places where things could easily go sideways pretty quickly IMO.

Someone finally got Carter on the record about Busch at 3B: At this point I'm expecting Madrigal to be the primary 3B, at least initially. Busch appears to be the guy who will slide across the diamond if/when he falters though.

This definitely feels like the team if the season started today, maybe with an Assad or Wesneski down at Iowa instead of working long relief. What I'm interested in is how some of these roles shift with the last couple acquisitions. - Bellinger would push Tauchman to the bench and presumably Mastrobuoni off the roster. I like Miles but there's nothing controversial here - It sounded at Cubs convention like Jed's adding two bats. Ideally that second guy would be a starting caliber 3B, but there don't appear to be many of those out there. So who is that guy, and who does that push off the roster? Like you alluded to Wisdom fits well right now but he's a prime candidate for being pushed off the roster - The pen is like you said a bit weird. There are currently three long relievers, which Ross would love but Counsell doesn't lean on as much. Almonte and Cuas are both sinker/slider righty specialist types. The closest thing to a LOOGY is Leiter. I'm increasingly wondering if two more RPs are on the way. One signing and one trade, with the trade coming via someone(s) that's a bit of a square peg on the roster

Oh interesting, so a guy can miss that like 13 days or whatever which used to be the cutoff for manipulating their service time. Probably not super likely to make a difference, but if god forbid someone gets hurt in one of the first three series of the year and get replaced by the ROY winner it would matter.