Bertz

Yeah to your point I'm not sure there's any team besides the Cubs and Giants that's more than 50/50 to jump in and grab a guy. If Jed's comfortable ending up with any of them I don't think he needs to worry about a quick run of signings and him left without a bag. If anything it's the opposite because some teams would want one or two guys but not others. E.g. the Giants are not going to sign Bellinger if the miss on Chapman. I think the Cubs and Angels are the only teams that would potentially be in on all 4.

So I guess here's a meandering list of points rattling around my head regarding the Boras guys - I think each of the four is an approximately 3.5 win player - If you forced me to take the over/under on 3.5 WAR for each guy I'd take the over on Snell/Chapman and the under on Bellinger/Montgomery - I think each of CF, 3B, and #5 starter is currently below average but not bad. I like internal options at CF the most by a smidge - Chapman and Snell would cost the team a pick in the 45-50 range, Bellinger a pick in the 75-80 range, and Montgomery no pick - Rough expectation seems to be that Chapman gets $125M, Montgomery $150M, Bellinger $175M, and Snell $200M - Purely for 2024, I think one of the SPs and a bat like Belt or JDM probably leads to the most wins - I'm a big believer in lineup diversity. Bellinger's a plus there while Chapman’s a big minus. Combined with Bellinger's age is why I ultimately prefer him most out of the four, despite the above points - I do think Jed is more or less obligated to sign one of the Boras 4. I'm sympathetic to some guys just not having reasonable price tags, but no one pointed a gun at Jed's head and forced him into this waiting game strategy. - Put another way, take the above and replace horsefeathers with "unreasonable negotiator"

Personally, I think any of the Boras 4 would have a similar impact on bottom line wins. CF, 3B, and 5th starter are all adequate 1.5-2 WAR type positions, and I'd project each of those four guys for 3-4 WAR. I think most fans want Bellinger most for a variety of reasons, and many of those reasons are very good. But if Jed foregoes Bellinger for one of the other three, I expect a lot of angst but will personally think it's mostly unwarranted. If Jed does not pull down one of the Boras 4....woof. I think you pull in one of Belt/Soler/JDM, add another late inning reliever, and sign one of the high profile rehabbing pitchers. It's probably not as disastrous for 2024 wins as it would feel, but man you'd really have to question if Jed is ever going to have the stones to go for it in an even halfway aggressive way.

Having Madrigal and Hoerner on the same team is not ideal, but it's in the same way that having Wisdom and Morel on the same team is not ideal. Having two guys playing largely the same positions with largely the same offensive profile limits how well you can matchup against certain days. When we've got a legitimate alternative at 3B yeah Madrigal needs to be shown the door. But before we think too much about that we need to have that alternative capable of playing at at least the ~2.5 WAR/600 pace Madrigal projects at. Right now our alternatives are Mastrobuoni, 3 guys we're not sure can handle the position defensively, and 2-3 kids in the upper minors that we hope in short order can handle the position offensively. Signing Chapman would be great in a vacuum, but add a third Morel/Wisdom type to the lineup. Introducing diminishing returns in the same way having Madrigal+Hoerner does.

I think they know they're going over a cliff after '25 and rather than try and thread the needle they're just saying screw it and maxing out the next two years. They're Dombrowskiing basically.

YMMV on whether it matters with Jed in charge but talk has been they wanted to retain just one of Altuve/Bregman so the latter seems very likely to hit FA now

This draft is also apparently insanely deep at WR. Matt Miller had 14 (!!) go in the top two rounds in his mock yesterday. Grabbing an LT at 9 and then trading back into the 2nd round (whether via Fields or otherwise) to grab a WR is not a very disappointing backup plan.

Dodgers/Padres can start using the 60 Day IL this week, and other teams next week. Don't be surprised if there's a flurry of moves around then. For instance I believe the Cubs immediately 60 Day IL'd someone (Roberts?) and then signed Fulmer last year.

I'm hoping that they have something lined up that they're simply waiting for Chapman/Bellinger to get locked in to execute on.

Right, and the genesis of the conversation was why that's wasteful and they'll have to settle for pennies on the dollar for him sometime in the next 12 months.

Even more broadly, unless there's an injury you can point to (or a change in repertoire for a pitcher) the endpoints game is meaningless 99% of the time.

There's nothing especially eyebrow raising in what he did last year, if anything Statcast thinks he was a bit unlucky. The projections have him taking a step back from last year but not a huge one. If he were the guy we expected to start 140 games in CF he'd be worth worrying about more, but as a bridge to the kids (or contact oriented bench bat after we bring back Bellinger) he's really well suited.

Expanding on this. Number of starting players from each Central team going into their age 24-30 season (not bothering to look at relievers): Cards (4) - Gorman, Nootbar, Edman, Donovan Brewers (7) - Contreras, Turang, Ortiz, Adames, Frelick, Peralta, Hall (?) Pirates (8) - Davis, Tellez, Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Keller, Ortiz Reds (10) - Stephenson, Candelario, McLain, Steer, Friedl, Benson, CES, Greene, Ashcraft, Abbott Cubs (10) - Busch, Hoerner, Swanson, Madrigal, Happ, Suzuki, Morel, Steele, Imanaga, Wicks (Bellinger would add another; Amaya overtaking Gomes would add another) Honestly looking at depth charts to compile this reinforces how cooked the Cards are. At least one of the Cubs/Reds/Brewers will get strong collective development from their kids and blow past them.

I think this is the money quote right here, and why I'm not worried about the Cardinals. They have almost no prime age talent on their roster. It's Nootbar, Gorman, Edman, and a couple relievers. Everyone else is old or *very* young and inexperienced.

Canario's got a tough path to playing time. Right now he's behind Happ, Suzuki, and Tauchman in the outfield, and Morel/Wisdom at DH. That’s not an impossible mix to worm his way into. But we know the team is adding at least one bat, with Bellinger or Chapman being likely. If it's Bellinger that adds a guy directly in front of Canario in the OF. If it's Chapman it doesn't directly impact him, however Jed failing to reel in a lefty will mean there's more incentive to get LHH bats into the lineup elsewhere, so Tauchman is probably the most days CF (especially with his pretty nominal platoon splits). Complicating things more is that it's not just the guys in front of him, it's the ones behind him. PCA is the org's golden child and is at roughly the same developmental level, probably a smidge behind. By mid season Owen Caissie is also likely to be competing for any non CF at bats Canario might be sniffing around for. If Canario was a more legit CF, or had a starker platoon split like, it'd be easier to see him carving a specific role on the MLB bench. But as is he seems likely to fill a Mastrobuoni type role of "first guy up from Ioea to be the last guy on the bench". If he wasn't going into his last option year that'd be a little wasteful but ultimately fine. As is his value drops like a stone the closer we get to November without him having proved definitively if he belongs in MLB.

Yeah I think this puts it really well. I'd obviously love flashy trades for like Juan Soto, but honestly even Jed just putting his Dipoto hat on occasionally and making a couple more Velazquez for Cuas type trades I think is warranted. Like Canario is a great example. He seemingly has some value, he also seems very likely to be on the outside looking in for a consistent spot on the MLB roster. It's going to be really annoying next November when he's out of options and only has ~200 MLB at bats under his belt and they have to dump him for pennies on the dollar. Like you said an avoidable problem, and negates a lot of the value gained on the margins elsewhere.

I think the safe assumption for the rest of the offseason is one of Bellinger/Chapman, an opportunistic ST-eve deal for another bat and/or reliever, and call it a day. Assuming that's correct, I think the above from Tommy is what will stick out most to me as a missed opportunity this winter. These are the prospect bats of note who will (likely) open the year at AA or AAA. Guys with *'s are already on the 40 man guys with +'s have to be added next winter PCA* Caissie+ Canario* Vazquez* Mervis* Davis* Murray+ Alcantara* Triantos Ballesteros Shaw McGeary Franklin+ Aliendo+ Pagan+ Only making one trade this winter, and having the currency in that deal be guys who were a million miles away, would feel like a waste. Like you don't even have to do anything crazy, even just turning one or two of the guys already on the 40 into their weight in relief help feels plenty productive.

Is it? The Cubs payroll is $45M higher than the Royals right now and expectation is they'll end up with Bellinger pushing the gap to $70M.

The Angels could make Rendon a more or less full time DH? Otherwise yeah it's seemingly Giants, Cubs, or mystery team. Like I could see the Tigers or Nats bringing him in a year too early as a "hey we're nearly back" kind of move.

I liked the Lugo deal too. And obviously the Ragans trade was a homerun. Good on them for seemingly turning a corner and moving on from being the closest thing the AL has to the Rockies.

After the Stripling trade wonder if the Giants are doing a a Boras pitcher + a lesser bat instead of just Chapman to finish their offseason.

The mistake a lot of people make is adding all that talent to their 100 wins from last year. But they were very much not a 100 win team on November 1st. Hell they weren't really a 100 win team on October 1st, it wasn't that shocking when they got bodied by the Dbacks in the playoffs Their rotation was Bobby Miller, a rehabbing Walker Buehler, and a bunch of kids. Their outfield was James Outman, Chris Taylor, and probably Michael Busch. With Betts/Freeman/Smith and an army of talented kids they certainly weren't a bad team, but their win projection certainly started with an 8 instead of a 9 or a 1.

Wonder of the Dodgers are bringing back Brasier. He was a reverse split guy after they brought him on and he added the cutter.

Ah good catch! Just fixed it. Yeah it's tough. Like most years Longenhagen hasn't finished until damn near draft day, and those last half dozen lists are basically out of date the second they go live. But at the same time they are so much more thorough than any others (particularly for teams that ST in Arizona), so you don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth. I feel like they should do those "Imminent Big Leaguer" articles promptly at the start of the winter and then he can take his sweet time writing about lower levels and complex league miscellany.