Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Not a chance. If he puts up 4+ WAR again this year he's opting out and the floor for his contract is something like Marcus Semien money.
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Busch and Seiya indeed alive
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They're certainly not doing Vazquez or any of the guys they added to the 40 man in November. I think Kilian or Davis would have made sense a month ago but with them both looking great early camp here the timing would be weird. I would really like to see Jed make a trade, with Wisdom IMO making the most sense. If we just simply cut someone it's probably got to be Mervis or Thompson.
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- cody bellinger
- matt mervis
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His chase rate spiked outrageously last year, but his in zone contact rates and power numbers were fine. I kind of wonder if he just got off to a slow start and then pressed like hell to try and dig out of it? He doesn't have the same high ball/ low ball split as Wisdom, but also can't even fake 3B. If Morel's getting some real 3B runway and/or Mastrobuoni's a lock to make the bench I think he's a better roster fit than Wisdom?
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He's also the only person on the 40 who we know can both play a viable 3B and stay reasonably healthy.
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Really curious who gets let go to make room for Bellinger. https://www.mlb.com/cubs/roster/40-man There is no one on the roster I would consider an easy decision to DFA. There's also no one we publicly know to be hurt enough to warrant a 60 Day IL stint. Can Jed quickly swing a trade, or does he burn a little bit of value by DFA'ing like Keegan Thompson or Matt Mervis.
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So, at least one more season of Bellinger... are the Cubs done?
Bertz replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I wouldn't be surprised if the team actually goes the other way and makes a minor sell move, like sending Patrick Wisdom out. The team needs the 40 man spot, Patrick's somewhat superfluous, and it would give them a little more wiggle room under the LT that they can hopefully use at the deadline. I don't expect a Montgomery or Snell. I know they're still on the market but it's not as hard to see viable alternatives for their services as it was Bellinger. I think they come in much closer to sticker price than Cody. -
This sounded wrong to me, looks like it's half right So the team is still a smidge under the tax for 2024.
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I think he's been there for a few years personally. But yeah it's him and Rosenthal and then a huge gap in reliability to like the Heyman's of the world.
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So this was the payroll analysis I did at the beginning of the offseason. At that point I found payroll for 2025 at the start of next offseason was $145-150M, pending anything Jed did this year and with a little wiggle room for arb raises and non tenders. The only guaranteed money for next year Jed added this winter was Shota. So let's call it $160-165M, at a minimum, plus potentially Bellinger's $27M and Neris' $9M. So on the low end the Cubs have ~$40M to spend next winter and on the high end closer to $80M.
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Nope, it's one per player per lifetime so when Bellinger leaves it'll be like Stroman.
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This is great, I've been stumping for a deal like this all winter. - If Cody is repeats last year, by doubling down and proving it wasn't a fluke he easily gets his $250M+ next winter - If he's more solid, let's say he hits to his projections or a little north of them, I think he gets his $150-200M. He'll have thrown off the QO and proven that '21-'22 Cody isn't coming back through the door - From the Cubs POV we likely get him for a year or two to provide coverage across 1B and the OFZ while the prospects matriculation up from the upper minors The one quibble I have is that it's a three year deal if things go south. The team already has A LOT of talent falling off between '26 and '27, including Happ and Suzuki. Obviously if he hasn't opted out by then things aren't going great but still I'd want to have at least one warm body left in the outfield.
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The new market inefficiency is outfielders who've been basically dead for the better part of two years
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I read this AM they told him he will 100% start at Iowa. They want him to make up for lost time and get consistent everyday at bats and build his confidence back up.
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Caleb Kilian might become a thing again when he shifts to short relief
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Was PCA crossing homeplate before the ball even hit the wall?
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Is my computer having a stroke, or is the CF camera broadcasting in standard def while literally every other camera is in normal HD?
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I assume we're going to do a ST games thread, but didn't want to start since not sure if we'd do it here in Cubs discussions or the regular season IGT forum
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2016 World Series Game 7 watch-along with Maddon/Francona
Bertz replied to Irrelevant Dude's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think his head got REALLLLLLLLLY big after the World Series. He might have always been like this, but one thing I noticed afterwards was that he became completely unable to admit even the smallest of mistakes. Given the palpable tension between him and Theo/Jed the last year or two, I'm guessing he was just as bad if not worse behind closed doors. There were also his really super messed up remarks during the Addison Russell saga, which I think started the turn against him with the fans. Hopefully being out of the game and/or his embarrassing tenure with the Angels has mellowed him back out. Because while the above isn't great, it's not nearly bad enough to where he can't show his face around town again. -
I'm expecting Wesneski to start, whether that's at Chicago or Iowa. I think, particularly given that Jed didn't tap into any of the SP depth in trade, it would have been very easy to give him the Michael Fulmer slider specialist role. Instead, the team traded for Yency Almonte to be New Fulmer. That's not to say we can't have two or anything, but adding Almonte was a weird choice if Hayden is going to be in short relief in the immediate term. Wesneski is not my current top choice to win the 5th starter spot as is, but ironically I'm hoping he wins it. I think his issues are pretty clear cut, and so if the team at the end of March thinks he's checked all the boxes and is one of their top 5 options I will absolutely believe them. And I think his ceiling is substantially higher than any of Smyly/Assad/Wicks.
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If I'm Statcasting correctly it's Chris Devenski https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=R&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=50&sort_col=api_break_x_batter_in&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_release_pos_x=on#results
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Before this weekend when PTR more or less squashed any hopes of crossing the LT, I was of the mind that Montgomery or Snell actually helps the 2024 team more. My thought was the incremental improvement over Wicks is similar to Bellinger's incremental improvement over PCA/Tauchman, but I think the roster can accommodate a ~1.5 WAR veteran DH (e.g. Belt) better than a ~1.5 WAR veteran SP (e.g. Lorenzen) However, implicit in that is an ability to cross the LT. If that's off the table and Jed's only got one move to make, I don't think I'm as keen on the SPs as I was before. I think also Montgomery is the least likely of the 4 to take a short term offer and get back on the market next winter. He didn't get QO'd, which is one of the tangible benefits any of the other three would get by trying again next winter.
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So this is one of the things I was thinking of. https://theathletic.com/1646799/2020/03/04/sarris-whats-more-important-for-a-pitcher-command-or-stuff?source=user-shared-article I can't find the other rattling around my head, but it was basically what 1908 shared but in article form. Run values for like 90-92 on the black are higher than they are for like 97-99 down the middle. I don't remember exactly where those lines cross but I believe it was approximately 6-7 MPHs on average. This also doesn't take extreme spin/movement profiles like Steele or Shota into account, but again we're keeping to generalities.
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Fun article on Cuas. I still like him a lot. As Baumann gets into in the article he couldn't locate his sweeper for horsefeathers last year, but I'm hopeful a winter and spring with it offers him a modicum of command. The velo's below average but the angle and the movement makes him really pop off in the various Stuff models.
