Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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My brain didn't immediately go to the 40 man. Kilian's injury definitely increases the chances of one of the MiLB deal guys like Edwards or Cooper making the team
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He's healthy, and has gotten into a few spring training games, I think he just generally gets a bit lost in the shuffle. Especially since Matt Shaw got added to the org last summer and quickly became a golden boy because he has basically the same strengths but with much less pronounced weaknesses. If there was a place to bet on which of our higher end prospects gets shipped out in July for a deadline upgrade James would be at least -110.
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I'd be shocked if the team adds another guaranteed roster spot SP. Snell/Montgomery seem unlikely for financial reasons, any trade target will only be nominally available before July, and Lorenzen/Clevinger probably aren't enough of an upgrade over the kids to be worth it. I could see someone in the Eric Lauer, Brad Keller, Matt Boyd kind of mold on a MiLB deal. If you're one of those guys you have to balance the strength of the Cubs' pitching dev vs. the strength of your competition for a roster spot. I have liked Lauer for a while (he was basically Aldi brand Imanaga pre-injury), and I remember a fairly compelling a Twitter thread from Greg Z about Keller.
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Cubs 2024 Spring Breakout Roster Released
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I know the Sox farm system has improved a lot over the last 12 months and also its just a meaningless exhibition but this is looking to be a Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals style bludgeoning -
It was really great to see Alzolay finally have that sustained success last year. He seems like a good dude and has definitely grinded and to finally produce and stay mostly healthy was awesome. He also seems like a good evangelist for a lot of the Cubs' pitcher development efforts. One thing I'm hopeful for is that this can be templatized a bit. I know Wesneski isn't exactly the same (there's that release point/pitch tipping angle), but they're fairly analogous situations. You also think about guys like Almonte and Hodge who have fastball/sweeper combos that are the goods but haven't had quite the success you'd hope for yet.
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I think even if this Morel at 3B thing works out, he probably cant start there on Steele or Wicks days.
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On the topic of pitchers who can't throw strikes, I thought this was a fun one. I feel like this is the sort of thing that probably only works with a bonafide stuff-monster like a Pete Fairbanks, but the idea of throwing it down the middle and letting your natural wildness keep it to the edges of the strike zone is interesting. Might be a way to coax a bit more out of a Palencia or a Little a bit faster than you'd be able to otherwise.
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In better injury news
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Among the 357 MLB pitchers with at least 50 IP last year, Brown's rate of pitches hitting the strike zone at AAA last year would have ranked 349th. Are we really trying to make this one of those stupid "David Ross is bald and dumb" things? Not to mention before the injury he was tracking towards being a September callup regardless.
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I mentioned in a post a few days ago, but it feels like the more we dig into the 2023 season for Bellinger the less of his production I'm chalking up to luck. The strikeout rate was earned based on contact improvements, the power was mostly real based on fly ball pull rate, racking up doubles appears based on this to be about staying out of "the donut" and maximizing spray with his soft/medium hit fly balls. There's still a question of sustainability for sure. But if you asked me for the over/under on Cody's wRC+ in November I would have said 110. Today I'm increasingly talking myself into more like 120.
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It's like 70% the lack of innings (he's topped out at 104 in a season) and like 30% the control issues that cropped up at Iowa. I think too with the team entering a more competitive window and having other talented young pitchers, there's not going to be a ton of opportunity available for him to struggle as a starter.
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Over the course of the winter I've mostly resigned myself to the fact that Brown is not going to be a SP. But he's going to be an absolute monster reliever.
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I'd guess he's got a pretty good shot. I think there's one spot in the pen not totally spoken for, and it'll come down to Cuas, Little, and Palencia. I'd guess the order I listed them is the order of likelihood, but I don't think Cuas is an overwhelming favorite by any means.
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Really fun middle of the order tonight
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Montgomery to the Red Sox in 3...2...1...
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Honestly my biggest worry about the starting pitching is how much rides on Justin Steele, a guy who exceeded his career high in innings by about 50% last year. There are legitimate reasons to worry about each of Shota, Hendricks, and Taillon but I'm not really worried beyond the general fear you shouod have for all pitchers. And the 5th starter battle looks great. Inherent to anyone fighting for a roster spot is some risk of stinking up the joint, but there's real talent there and freedom to cycle through guys if they struggle. That's a better situation than at least 25 teams have for their 5th starter and beyond.
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That second tier of WRs is still really legit. Like Thomas and Mitchell basically had perfect combine testing numbers You're not necessarily foregoing impact if you end up with WR4 or WR5 this year.
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It takes like 4-5 injuries to guys further up the depth chart before I think calling Bote up to MLB would be a good idea. He should be cut so that he can glob on with like the Rockies and save the Cubs $800K.
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I think ultimately the biggest thing question with Cody is how repeatable all the stuff he did last year is. I feel like as data and analyses keep piling up, there's less and less thought that he was super lucky last year. However, how repeatable is everything he did last year? Last year Bellinger was: - 87th percentile in strikeout rate (in the good direction) - 84th percentile last year in hitting the ball in the air (fly balls + line drives) -89th percentile in pulling those balls in the air - 45th percentile in exit velocity on fly balls So if he can hold onto his contact gains and the pull rate is a repeatable skill, he can hold onto most of his production from last year. Probably settle in as an Ian Happ-ish caliber hitter? If either/both of those changes are fleeting though he would need to get back to smoking the ball on a more regular basis.
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I remember an article ~10 years ago by the now disgraced Jonah Keri talking about the Braves. He compared their operating model to hara hachi bun, which is a Japanese teaching to eat only until you're 80% full. The idea being that you're satisfied at that point but avoid gluttony. From a baseball standpoint, if you're adding 10 WAR in an offseason, those first 7-8 are generally a lot less expensive than those last 2-3. By not going that last mile you avoid bad contracts, trading prospects you shouldn't, etc. That's something the Braves could do (and did pre Anthopolous). It's how the Dodgers operated before this winter. I think it's a good operating model....when you're mostly in charge of your division. Maybe the Cubs on the backs of the army of kids win the division by like 8 games, but it feels like the team was a move short this winter. Last year it felt like they were a move short and low and behold they missed a playoff spot by a game. It's a risky proposition when your existing team isn't good enough to give you a ton of margin for error.
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- michael busch
- cody bellinger
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This makes things sound surprisingly settled for how far out we are from opening day. Also the way it talks about Madrigal implies Morel is #1 on the depth chart at 3B
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