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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    One good thing about this Yankees/Dodgers gauntlet is that the pitching matchups are pretty forgiving - Luis Gil had an amazing start to his season but the league adjusted and he's been bad lately as he's yet to adjust back - Clarke Schmidt is really solid but it's his first start off the IL - Gerrit Cole hasn't been right all year. He's still been good but he's not *that* much better than Taillon right now - Walker Buehler is washed - Yamamoto is great but making his first start off the IL - Bobby Miller is a mess and I've yet to see a good explanation for why Like against these offenses it might still be a rough week but 3-3 looks like a pretty reasonable expectation.
  2. Bertz
    Aaron Judge has been slumping lately, so expect him to wake up and hit approximately 8 dongs this weekend
  3. Bertz
    The term "Bugs Bunny Changeup" gets over-used but....
  4. Bertz
    Do we know if Kilian got hurt? Left after 1.2. He threw 50 pitches so maybe he got pitch counted? Though it was the first where he labored he had only thrown 15 pitches in the 2nd.
  5. Bertz
  6. Bertz
    Statcast says Bellinger would have 9 (!!!) extra homers if he played in Yankee Stadium or in Philly. It's not an accident those were the two teams getting tied to him most aggressively as a deadline acquisition before he went on the IL in early July.
  7. Bertz
    To this point, I do wonder how much PCA weighs into Bellinger's calculus. Right now I think it's pretty easy to say Cody's played limited CF the last few months due to circumstance. PCA being all-universe out there plus the fluke finger injury. But if PCA is indeed the guy, a year and a half gap in Cody's CF resume feels hard to get over regardless of how viable the excuse is. And if Bellinger's peers are suddenly corner outfielders and 1st basemen, the bar for a nine figure contract gets real high.
  8. Bertz
    Kiley McDaniel had an article just today where he had an offhand remark saying he thinks Cody'll opt out, which caught my eye. Overall we're not going to know until it happens. It more or less depends on Cody's confidence. If he thinks he is a star and will prove that next year he likely opts in and aims for next winter. If he wants to play it safe he'll opt out and bank a new deal this winter.
  9. Bertz
    He is a smidge ahead of Swanson at 3.6. Barring a deep slump to close out the season it's going to end up being the best year of his career.
  10. Bertz
    Good for him after Boras bungled last winter. I would not want him on that deal though. This feels like throwing bad money after good because the Giants can't get anyone to take their mega contracts.
  11. Bertz
    Trueblood did a writeup and the long and short was they moved where he stands on the rubber and pared down his repertoire to closer to pure fastball/slider. I think he's viewed as a late inning reliever, and the 2 inning stints have just been a way to get more work on those changes. With Lopez hurt, I'd like to see them treat him as the #2 in the pen. If you've got a September of Hodge and Pearson locking down the late innings with their high octane stuff you can really approach the pen differently heading over the winter.
  12. Bertz
    I tend to think the Titans are going to be competing with the Vikings for the #1 overall pick. They look pretty damn bad. That said, September is always upset city. And even if Caleb's amazing as a rookie, it taking a month or two for him to become that guy is imminently reasonable.
  13. Bertz
    Dansby Swanson up to 3.5 WAR. He's got an okay chance of ending the year over 4 PCA's at 2.2, which is nuts considering his playing time. With how much his bat has been shielded, particularly early on, prorating his numbers up to 600 PAs would be a bit intellectually dishonest. But still he's probably played at a ~3.5 WAR level as a 22 year old rookie. And that's not giving extra weighting to his 2nd half numbers at all.
  14. Bertz
    Color me intrigued by Ariel Armas. Reportedly the best defensive catcher in the country, him hitting *at all* is worth keeping an eye on
  15. Bertz
    The International League isn't as insane of a hitters environment as the PCL, but it very much does tilt towards offense so I assume if we had ERA+ for minor leaguers that would be pretty elite.
  16. Bertz
    I would think playing down a man is a decent indication that whoever comes up for Steele will be a SP rather than a reliever?
  17. Bertz
    I can't really imagine a situation where he comes over to the US prior to age 25 and comes to Chicago. You either go to the Dodgers who are now unofficially team Japan, or you try to blaze your own path and go to a team that doesn't have a major Japanese star and try to be *the guy* in that market. Either way the Cubs aren't a great fit. That said this should perk our ears up for Jed making an NPB signing this winter. I believe this year beyond Sasaki it's mostly relievers?
  18. Bertz
    Dansby Swanson wOBA and xwOBA by month April - .294 / .339 May - .211 / .291 June - .326 / .321 July - .255 / .345 August - .339 / .317 September - .599 / .433 Aside from May where he played pretty poorly leading into his IL stint and September which is three days old he's been largely the same guy all year. The difference is that in the second half here fewer balls are finding gloves. His xwOBA bar on baseball savant has been saying 60-something percentile for months now and his actual production is finally mercifully catching up.
  19. Bertz
    If this ends up being more than a one start deal (and how often do elbows, however mild, not require an IL trip and 3-4 missed turns?) I wonder if Kyle gets the subsequent starts. Feels like if there's more time to prep plus Thursday's off day Birdsell should be the guy.
  20. Bertz
    I wonder if we see another Kyle Hendricks start this year. There are four weeks left in the season, and 3 of those feature a Thursday off day. The one week that doesn't, the week of 9/16, the team is facing Washington & Oakland at Wrigley. So you need a 6th starter maybe one or two more times this year? Kyle's probably the favorite to take those starts, but it could easily be Wesneski (assuming no setbacks) or Kilian.
  21. Bertz
    Playing a night game on Labor Day is kinda messed up?
  22. Bertz
    Something kind of funny is happening with Dansby Swanson. He's now after today's game hit the 3 WAR mark for the year. He is tied with Trea Turner at 3.0 WAR, and both guys are way ahead of Xander Bogaerts' 1.6 (strong consideration for worst contract in baseball). Carlos Correa played like an MVP the first half of the year and put up 3.6 WAR. But he's injured with no timetable I can find for a return. Decent chance he's done for the year. Both Turner and Swanson likely pass him in that case. So if Dansby outplays Turner over the next month he probably has the best year from his little FA SS cohort even after the rough first half.
  23. Bertz
    So if Long has let's call it 55 grade in game power, it feels like he's probably a MLBer. Certainly if he can hack it anywhere but 1B. Something in the Mark Canha neighborhood if things go right?
  24. Bertz
    Counsell seems to be giving Keegan an opportunity to quickly re-enter the circle of trust. Him and Pearson having a hig September would be really big heading into the winter.
  25. Bertz
    Assuming Mastro for the next ~2 weeks and then Caissie once the Iowa season ends?
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