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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Even with Bote and Hudson that's easily the most fun Iowa lineup since early 2015?
  2. Bertz
    Hurray, the roster from yesterday was WIP https://www.milb.com/iowa/news/iowa-cubs-announce-2024-opening-day-roster Caissie and Murray did make the roster, Davis is opening on the IL.
  3. Bertz
    Came in expecting heroin to the forehead and left even more satisfied
  4. Bertz
    The WPA thing is definitely one of those things people are only mad about because it's ESPN doing it. So many of the same people watch a lot of games with Fangraphs open to grab WPA. Like this being such a common thing is why that "shut up I'm trying to calculate win probability" tweet blew up so much.
  5. Bertz
    Why would upside be an overriding factor over expected production in a year where we are all wanting/expecting the team to compete? Maybe Ben Brown is the best pitcher right now, though given he walked almost 16% of batters he saw last time he pitched in games that mattered I highly doubt it. I'd personally go with Wesneski. The April conditions should mitigate some of his dong problems, which are really the main thing holding him back at this juncture.
  6. Bertz
    Also even of Morel works out at 3B when a GB heavy lefty like Justin Steele is on the mound you probably want to aim higher than "adequate" for your 3B defense.
  7. Bertz
    Oh god I was so preoccupied with the lack of Caissie in the outfield I completely missed no Murray on the infield. Rostering both Bote and Strumpf (who are both pure roster filler at this point) over actual prospects is hard-core nonsense. I get one of them in case there's a catastrophic injury right away this weekend, but both?
  8. Bertz
    For anyone like me who spends way too much time on Baseball Twitter, you might remember the "Would it Dong" bot. That bot got killed When dummy cleaned out all the useful bots last summer (while ignoring the porn). Apparently MLB built their own though and it survived the purge:
  9. Bertz
    Caissie not being at Iowa from Day 1 is a travesty on par with 100 hindenbergs
  10. Bertz
    Yeah I think repeating AAA, especially given that he was age appropriate already when he first got there, is a big red flag. What is encouraging though is that he was more or less a perfect offensive player during that second go around. Using MLB percentiles on his MiLB #s he was: - 85th percentile in chase rate - 79th percentile in in-zone contact rate - 85th percentile in average exit velo - 69th percentile in hard hit rate - 74th percentile in groundball rate - 94th percentile in HR/FB rate All of the above are set such that 100 is best (i.e. Busch's 85th percentile chase means he chases less than 85% of other hitters) So we've got a guy who doesn't chase, doesn't swing and miss, and hits the ball hard consistently and usually in the air. If he were younger we'd be wondering if we have a star on our hands, as is I feel like he's a pretty good bet for like a 120 wRC+ (though probably not a ton of ceiling beyond that).
  11. Bertz
    Yeah I'm trying not to get too over my skis since it's spring and on top of that a lot of these guys first time seeing him, but he might *really* rack up the swing and miss. The homeruns will certainly be a problem but even so he could be something in the Freddy Peralta or Joe Ryan neighborhood.
  12. Bertz
    A) Spring Training stats don't mean anything B) If you're striking out 40%+ of batters you face pretty much nothing else within reason matters. So if you were to take anything from his spring it should be positive.
  13. Bertz
    I'm very much doing the kombucha girl reaction to that extension. Like $140M to a catcher two years out from FA is pretty dumb in a general sense, but a $14M AAV is very forgiving. I think I mostly come down on disliking it. To your point though there's definitely something going on with them. The Padres' LT nonsense, now in hindsight, was clearly about maximizing their window before Seidler died. For the Dodgers is all of their stuff this offseason just reverberations from Ohtani's deferrals or is something else going on?
  14. Bertz
    https://theathletic.com/5351937/2024/03/27/sarris-ten-bold-predictions-2024-mlb-season?source=user-shared-article Bold predictions column from Eno Sarris includes a Cub
  15. Bertz
    Surprise, he was just hurt again
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    Last year I think he subbed in for JD on every west coast trip. Unfortunately I assume that's an explicit arrangement they have.
  18. Bertz
    Thanks for this, I had no idea about NF and Apple. I dumped both of those over the past year but I'll pick them back up. Even if it's the ad tier that's fine if it's free.
  19. Bertz
    Looks like by Stuff+ it's #8 amongst pitchers with at least 20 IP last year. That said most of the guys above him are *significantly* above him. PitchingBot rates his fastball at #27. So yeah I think it's more of a 70 grade pitch. The funny thing is that Cuas is #7 by both graders. Shows how impactful extreme levels of funk can be.
  20. Bertz
    There are three categories of quality bench player: 1. The guys who can just step in and be a quality starter if needed 2. The supersub types who can do a little bit of everything 3. The guys who can do 1 or 2 things extremely well I would consider Amaya and Tauchman category 1 guys. Mastro if he hits like he did in the second half (which his minor league track record suggests we should expect) is a category 2 guy, potentially a high end one. Madrigal, Wisdom, and Cooper are category 3 guys. Wisdom has insane power, Cooper is a lefty masher, and Madrigal is arguably the most extreme contact hitter in baseball. He's also, in limited playing time this far, an elite glove at a position where we have major defensive questions currently. I don't see a good argument for dumping him in order to carry a second one of Wisdom/Cooper/Canario. At least not in the immediate term.
  21. Bertz
    This is an annual thread around here. What are your bold predictions for what we see in 2024? I'll lead off with a few: - Miguel Amaya has a 2008 Geovany Soto style breakout, and becomes clearly part of the core - Owen Caissie is hitting cleanup before the season is done - Kyle Hendricks pitches well enough to necessitate a qualifying offer, but thankfully gets extended before FA opens
  22. Bertz
    Looks like it's confirmed, as is the end of the bullpen
  23. Bertz
    This likely means Madrigal is going to make the team even though he just got back into games yesterday.
  24. Bertz
    These get updated every morning for all regular and postseason games
  25. Bertz
    If this were a regular season game I'd be turning on push notifications for tomorrow's umpire scorecard. Brown's been getting squeezed bad.
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