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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Awful awful news for Franklin. Hopefully just the forearm. On the other side of the ledger, Porter Hodge didn't just level up over the offseason he straight up evolved. Dear lord BaseballSavant says he had another pitch at 99.0 and averaged 96.7 on the day
  2. Bertz
    I think there's a good chance Franklin is our long term 4th outfielder. In a way his somewhat limited ceiling probably works in his favor for being able to stick in the org. Some of the blue chippers there's far more of an opportunity cost to not trading them.
  3. Bertz
    Another potential slider specialist if Cuas can't get fixed
  4. Bertz
    This hasn't been updated for last night yet but Bryan Smith has been on the changes leading to Jordan Wicks' skyrocketing swing and miss rates since the first start of the year
  5. Bertz
    Let's start with this fun piece featuring Javier Assad
  6. Bertz
    There's no such thing as a must win game in April, not even close really, but you'd love to pull this one down. The SP matchup is most in our favor and you really don't want to have to beat Castillo to avoid the sweep. I also wonder if Wisdom returns tonight? This is a good matchup for him and I don't believe he played for Iowa yesterday.
  7. Bertz
    Don't overthink it, Wicks has been awesome this year its just the .438 BABIP and some associated nibbling with all the extra traffic. And good lord Busch has been incredible.
  8. Bertz
    Pretty strong night on the farm but the most notable thing might be Koen Moreno going 4 innings without a walk?
  9. Bertz
    Yeah I'm guessing it's this. Even though I was thinking with Taillon there they don't need to hold Hayden in reserve but they probably disagree. So Thompson can give you a little length in a blowout or extras over the next few days and then you've got an obvious person to send down when Taillon’s ready on Wednesday or Thursday. I also think this is an indication Brown stays up and moves to long relief when Taillon’s back next week, which is fun.
  10. Bertz
    I don't have them handy but Poles' comments really made it sound like they're staying. - He divided the FO into three teams tasked with arguing between WR, Edge, and OT at #9 - Mentioned the idea of loving being able to add a "blue" player (their color coding for top tier) there - Talked about finally being in a position where they don't *need* a ton of picks for roster health - Made some joke about getting bored that weekend with how few picks they have Like it could be subterfuge/smokescreens/whatever but I'm expecting him to stick. Maybe he pulls a deal like last year and drops back one or two spots if the board plays just right (4 QBs go top 8 and like the Falcons or Titans make a wacky pick), but I don't think he'll go far.
  11. Bertz
    The Good News: - We get the Mariners #4 and #5 starters this weekend - They get to match up with Wicks and Shota from our side - The Mariner's offense has been a dumpster fire to start the year The Bad news - Hancock and especially Miller would rank higher than 4 & 5 in most rotations - I'm not exactly sure where you'd rank Luis Castillo among current SPs but the number of guys you could reasonable argue ahead of him is certainly in the single digits - The Mariners moribund offense has actually been pretty okay against lefties
  12. Bertz
    I'd guess Wesneski - The pen could clearly use another guy who can give them length - Cuas going down means there's room for someone who is (intended to be at least) death on righties. Particularly this weekend against Seattle whose best hitters are primarily righties - Speaking of opponent specific minutiae, Seattle and Miami have been the 26th and 30th ranked teams in the league vs. the slider in the early going - Taillon in Iowa on rehab means there's not immediate need to have someone down there keeping warm in case of injury
  13. Bertz
    Okay yeah this is fun
  14. Bertz
    He is averaging 96.1 at Iowa in the early going in multi-inning stints. He might sit closer to 98 when he shortens back down to being a 1 inning guy.
  15. Bertz
    I think the Astros actually being bad is more likely than the Royals actually being good, especially since you can so directly point at a list of injuries a mile long, but wowza.
  16. Bertz
    The lack of swing and miss is something I think is worth worrying about a bit, but the rest feels like regular ebbs and flows stuff. Hendricks stuff isn't down, in fact it's actually up a bit. The velo is the best it's been since 2016, and the Stuff metrics don't go back that far but agree the stuff is up YoY. He's not throwing more pitches down the middle, his "Meatball" rate is below his career average and his "Edge" rate is a smidge below his career number but up over last year and well above the league number. I would say there are three things going on here, with mileage varying on how they should be weighted: - Horsefeathers happens. It's just three games - The schedule. He faced an elite offense and two other good ones, with two of those starts on the road. That's a tough gauntlet for anyone - Predictability. This is my best guess as to where something actually need to be done. Maybe he's tipping pitches, maybe his sequencing has been too predictable, or maybe (and this is my personal guess) he needs to bump his curveball usage up to something closer to 10%. But a lot of the worst damage this year has been done on pitches that weren't actually that bad. Watching him, particularly yesterday, has felt like playing MLB The Show with Guess Pitch turned on
  17. Bertz
    I don't think there's any reason to expect 40% of flyballs to leave the yard. With Kyle's unique velocity never say never but he's probably fine.
  18. Bertz
  19. Bertz
    Looking ahead, the pitching matchups are a little more forgiving during the second half of this west coast stretch. We got two of the Dodgers' top three and all of the Padres'. Against the Mariners we are slated to miss both Kirby and Gilbert, though Castillo is obviously great and Miller/Hancock are hardly slouched. Then against the Dbacks we get Kelly but miss Gallen and E-Rod. This is on paper the hardest stretch of the season and 7-5 is starting to look like a reasonable outcome?
  20. Bertz
    In the early going Javy is chasing 55% of pitches out of the zone, which is astronomical Going all the way back to 2008 when high quality pitch tracking is available only four guys with at least 150 PAs have ever cracked the 50% barrier, and the worst is 2008 Pablo Sandoval at 53%.
  21. Bertz
    I think it's more than a slight downgrade. And that's not to crap on the Padres. But the Dodgers probably have the best lineup in baseball against RHP, and the Rangers aren't in the Dodgers/Braves tier offensively but can reasonably argue their lineup against any other team in the league. The Padres have a good lineup but to borrow a phrase from the kids the bottom half is pretty sus. I thought Hendricks looked good against the Dodgers it's just that good is not good enough against that team. Against a more mortal lineup like the Padres I would not be surprised to see a lot more success.
  22. Bertz
    Cubs won last night and Ben Brown might be a dude The bullpen was great too Let the good vibes re-commence Kyle Hendricks is on the bump. It's been a rough start to the year and you hope he doesn't join the ranks of other disgraced scholars On the other hand, his velocity is up in the early going Let's hope he can blow it by the Padres hitters Go Cubs
  23. Bertz
    It's not as easy as just throwing money at it https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=21&stats=rel&qual=1&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1
  24. Bertz
    Also the Rockies implosion was mostly bad luck/BABIP/sequencing while last night's was legitimate bad pitching.
  25. Bertz
    Cubs lost a tough one yesterday And the culprit was one of the usual suspects Because of the circumstances, all of the worst people are going to be incredibly dramatic all day today about pretty much everything Cubs are on the bump tonight with a piggyback deal between Ben Brown and Drew Smyly Go Cubs
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