Bertz

I know he's dead to most of the fanbase already but I'm still extremely here for Jose Cuas. He basically transformed himself on the fly in August, a winter and ST to iron out kinks is going to make a big difference IMO

If you take what Morel did on offense and on the bases last year, pro-rate it to 600 PAs, and give him average defense at 3B, it comes out to just a hair under 4 WAR. I am sure Jed is not just hearing about this from Craig Counsell Chris Morel has been just that bad at 3B. He has 44 errors in 164 professional games at 3B. It's not just a Jimmy Rollins situation where he piled them up in rookie ball either, he has 15 in 55 games at AA and above. I don't have his winter league numbers from December handy but they were right in line with this as well. We've generally moved beyond errors and Fielding Percentage in analysis, but that is a catastrophically high number of errors. Patrick Wisdom, who has begun piling up errors the last two years and lost playing time as a result, has 25 in 166 games and the advanced metrics grade him as a -10 fielder. Extrapolate Morel out and you get a damn near -20 defender at 3B. The Adam Dunn of 3B. You can see why the team hasn't made the move that feels so obvious if you just focus on his bat. The glass half full is that Morel has been doing the super-utility thing since COVID. If he can actually focus on 3B he's not going to get all the way into the black, but maybe he can cleqn things up just enough to get somewhere in the -5 to -10 range? You'd still not let him on the field when Steele's pitching, but otherwise that's perfectly playable.

This is probably (hopefully?) the biggest non-Boras thing to watch this spring, so we should give it it's own thread

I'm not super convinced what Counsell said means much, but I'd love to be wrong. Adding a full time 1B/DH on top of it would make me much more convinced it's something beyond "hey it's spring training why not try it?"

Yeah four years feels right. The Correa deal gets thrown around, by myself included, but he was a substantially better player. $35M per year AND an opt out after year one is a thing a 6 WAR player can ask for, but even the most optimistic folks agree Bellinger's not close to that guy anymore. Four years with early opt outs gets Bellinger into 9 figures on a more reasonable annual salary, and in the event he doesn't opt out makes it so he is set up to leave the winter after Happ and Seiya. Obviously in a scenario where he doesn't opt out he's not playing great, but still turning over an entire starting outfield in one winter is extremely dicey.

This from MLBTR is really good. It's framed as about Bellinger but it runs through every team and you can get a sense for where any of the Boras guys would end up. It mostly echoes what's been said here. Cubs and Angels could fit any of the Boras guys, Giants can fit one but Bellinger would seem like the least likely fit. Most of the other usual suspects are already running record high payrolls, and even if they did do a sneaky signing would probably grab a pitcher. The Dbacks get mentioned as a sneaky fit, and that's intriguing. They've got a bunch of money coming off the books next winter and a bunch of kids either just arrived or on the way to fill out their roster for cheap. So if they're willing to get luxury tax adjacent this winter coming off their World Series run that feels pretty viable.

Setting aside the bullpen stuff I already mentioned in the other thread: - I agree Wicks isn't a lock for the #5 starter, but I think Assad is the big challenger. Even if you give him zero credit for FIP-beating (not unreasonable), he had a 3.96 xFIP from 6/16 onward. He was at 4.26 during the period he was back in the rotation from 8/5 - 9/23. League average last year was 4.33. I'd put the 5th starter odds out of the gate at something like 40% Wicks, 30% Assad, 20% Wesneski, 10% Smyly or other - Agree with TT that Mastrobuoni's got a pretty easy path to getting the plurality of the playing time at 3B. His Statcast numbers at Iowa were extremely solid, and the more I play with AAA Statcast data the more it appears to translate very well to MLB - I harp on this a lot, but Wisdom and Morel are very redundant and it feels like there's a chance for something shocking to happen there. Like an 11th our trade or even Morel spending a bit of time at Iowa

I think the big determining factor will be how they view the "Failed Starters." Which one(s) are SP depth, which long relief, which optimized towards short relief? As you've written previously Smyly and Wesneski you don't have to squint very hard to see being very successful in short relief. Assad doesn't have the money pitch or two of those other two guys, but also was easily the most effective of the three in MLB last year, regardless of role. I expect Craig to carry only one long reliever, with one of Assad/Wesneski at Iowa in the rotation in case of injury, and one of Wesneski/Smyly to be tried out as a standard one inning reliever. I'm guessing long relief for Assad, Iowa rotation for Wesneski, and short relief for Smyly, but wouldn't be shocked in any direction. I also think there are two potential personnel moves that would shake things up a bit. First, and TT's written about this before, but I wonder if Leiter's name should be written more in pencil rather than pen a la Rowan Wick last spring. He is a batting practice pitcher if that splitter is not working, so I think he is very much needing to earn his roster spot this spring. I also think there's likely another addition on the way. There's been enough smoke around additional pitching depth, that in my mind it's gone from a possibility to an expectation. It is interesting that there's been smoke around both regular relief and additional swing men. But I suspect another setup type is more likely, let's say Ryne Stanek just to put a name to it Ultimately I'd guess we end up with this CL - Alzolay SU - Merryweather, Neris, Stanek MR - Smyly, Almonte, Leiter LR - Assad Iowa - Wesneski, Little, Cuas, Palencia, others I think swapping Wesneski in for Assad, cutting Leiter, foregoing the dedicated long relief spot, and foregoing the external acquisition, in that order, are the most likely deviations from the above. I think the Iowa guys, in the order I have them, are the most likely to backfill.

This is great, I would love to see the reaction of someone who knows our system but doesn't spend the time on this forum to a couple of the inclusions on the list of names to choose from. Also, I believe Palencia is graduated and needs to be removed?

https://theathletic.com/5270636/2024/02/16/cubs-2024-top-prospects-keith-law?source=user-shared-article Keith Law's list is predictably a bit bonkers 1. PCA 2. Shaw 3. Alcantara 4. Horton 5. Busch 6. Rojas 7. Triantos 8. Caissie 9. Wicks 10. Christian Franklin 11. Brown 12. Ballesteros 13. Gray 14. Pedro Ramirez 15. Wiggins 16. Kohl Franklin 17. Mervis 18. Arias 19. Murray 20. Canario

https://theathletic.com/5270852/2024/02/16/mlb-young-hitters-fantasy-baseball?source=user-shared-article Christopher Morel gets a little love as a young breakout hitter for 2024. The tl;dr is that his plate discipline numbers paint the picture of being "selectively aggressive", the power is the goods, and he pulls the ball in the air a lot. Obviously more swing and miss than you'd like but the overall package is strong.

I don't remember where I saw it, but there's some qualifier where the guy has to make his debut with the team getting the PPI, so Busch's cup of coffee last year with the Dodgers exempts him unfortunately.

I don't have a throughline for all of this, but some generally related thoughts: - Except for at the very beginning with the last core when half the team was making league minimum and putting up 3+ WAR, and in '21 coming out of the COVID shutdown, the team has otherwise always hung out at minimum just below the luxury tax. I think that is, even at the most pessimistic, where you should expect payroll to be in any given year - The team right now is ~$30M below the tax. I 100% expect additional moves, and at least one of some consequence. Maybe instead of Bellinger it's Ryne Stanek and JDM or Brandon Belt and Brandon Woodruff, but I would be floored if payroll is below like $220M on April 1st - Given that the team has gone above the LT (unlike say, the Giants), and that they took such great pains to stay under last year (when the marginal value of another ~$10M was quite high), I do think it was reasonable and not some rose colored glasses moment to expect them to exceed the tax this year. I would currently put it below 50/50 but I do still think there's a decent chance it happens, most likely scenario being Bellinger at ~$25M while also adding $10-15M in additional pitching depth - If the team does not exceed the tax this year, I do think you have to seriously consider the possibility that PTR might just be done with allowing that. Or maybe it has to be a very special circumstance to allow for it. For example this year, which looks like a potential last hurrah for the Astros, is going to be their first year ever over the tax - The glass half full explanation to staying under the tax this year would be that Jed has to dip under one of the next three years and some combo of the crappy FA market beyond Ohtani, the crappy division, or bullish internal projections made them decide last minute to do this year. It retroactively makes some decisions from last year worse, but it's reasonably likely and not nearly as catastrophic as a blanket "No LT" mandate from ownership - I don't think ownership doesn't care about winning or is cool with 84 wins in perpetuity or anything like that. Not because Tom's a swell dude (he very much is not!), but because the pendulum is swinging back towards revenue being tied directly to wins and attendance. The RSN implosion means you need to have incentive to get people to buy direct Marquee subs and watch Marquee ads. You can't just survive on a bunch of $6/month carriage fees from cable subscribers who don't even watch sports anymore. Similarly, the value of all the real estate Ricketts has bought around Wrigley is maximized by getting asses excited to trek up to Lakeview on game days - I think we should clearly expect Jed to be measured and conservative and weight the next year less than the three after it. HOWEVER, I don't think it's smart to make definitive declarations about what he will or won't do in specific circumstances. Like TT mentioned, I've made this point before but if you read stuff from Dodgers fans many said a lot of the same stuff about Friedman as Cubs fans do about Jed. It required some dumb mental gymnastics about Mookie being a "right place right time" sort of aberration, but otherwise they weren't wrong. He gave Greinke a legitimate top of market deal way back in 2013, and otherwise did mid sized extensions to guys like Taylor and Muncy or short high AAV deals to guys like Bauer. Freddie Freeman's deal was a bit of an exception, but while huge by 1B standards it wasn't really in absolute terms (less than Dansby got). We all saw what happened this winter. These narratives are only accurate until they're not, and specific circumstances can impact team behaviors significantly - Even as someone who mostly likes Jed, he is CLEARLY part of the ultra annoying class of baseball execs who can't do a damn thing without a deadline. Everyone was worried he was gonna not get a SP in '21 and he pulled Stroman last minute, everyone was worried he was going to miss all the shortstops last winter and he got Swanson, the most likely outcome is he comes down with one of the Boras guys this winter. Going forward, we should hope the Cubs have overlapping interests with Preller or Dipoto because that's probably the only way we won't have to wait interminably long for Jed to make moves and save our sanity

I've also brought up the Tigers and Nats as potential sleeper teams for the Boras guys, but probably scratch that that this point: It's getting really hard to see who beyond the Cubs/Giants/Angels might have the stomach for a big signing

18. Horton 20. PCA 32. Shaw 33. Alcantara 43. Wicks 65. Caissie 84. Busch

There are mistakes and there are things that are just circumstances, and IMO 3B this winter is very much just the latter. The 3B market is/was Matt Chapman, Jeimer Candelario, and Gio Urshela. End of list. Not exactly a robust market. Urshela's not much (any?) better than the guys we've got in house, and is coming off a major injury to boot. Candelario would'vebeen a modest upgrade, but his defense at 3B is slipping and he'll probably be a tweener like Wisdom before too long. We all know the deal with Chapman and the Boras guys. I actually think the timeshare at 3rd should work out reasonably well. You've got a good complement of offensive skillets. I think the big question is whether any of Busch/Wisdom/Morel can be closer to -5 at the position than -15. But if not Madrigal getting ~70% of the playing time until one of the kids is ready is fine. The problem is if we're saying more or less the same thing about CF as well. You can only piecemeal so many positions at once.

I'm very understanding of market forces, not making moves just to make moves, etc. But if Jed just adds a bit of pitching depth and then we roll into the year that's a wildy unacceptable offseason. Like I'm not going to try to put lipstick on that pig. That said, like Squally said Jed can't go "we've got another $35M burning a hole in our pockets!", particularly given that most of the guys you'd reasonably spend money on all have the same agent. More or less all of this waiting around doesn't matter, it's frustrating for fans but does nothing in the W/L column. So I'm not really in the business of assigning grades until inventory runs out or it's pencils down time and the season is about to start.

I was very happy with the idea of PCA in CF if we'd added like a Soto. But I think, even taking a Bellinger/Chapman add as a given I feel like this iteration of the offseason we don't have the buffer that I'm comfortable with to run him out there everyday from day 1. I don't think he needs a ton of time, I'd guess he's tracking towards Memorial Day, but I would not want him breaking camp at this point.

Yeah the big blow has already happened with smaller rosters and the loss of the NWL and its equivalents. But stuff like this isn't really a problem. It's removing a layover from a bunch of fresh draftees on their way to full season ball and handing those PAs back to 18/19 year old prior year HS draftees and IFAs. Also TT nailed it in that the difference between the ACL and like scrimmages or EXST games is much more about the fact that the former is recorded better and less about the quality of competition or instruction.

Like Tim/1908 mentioned my wording was a little ambiguous but I was saying the opposite. Basically I don't see a big Kim trade with the Padres as likely at this stage, but I'd still like to do a smaller trade since we do IMO have a surplus of outfielders. Hell, maybe even something like a reverse Busch trade where we get a more talented but inherently riskier A baller back for Canario. (or if we want to get WILD, Morel)

I do not think Jed is doing a Ha Seong Kim trade at this point, but sending an outfielder like Canario San Diego's way makes a ton of sense. Bring Steven Wilson back this way maybe?

This seems fine? Good even? Most high school players don't get into games right after getting drafted. Like looking at Termarr Johnson, a tippy top offensivd high school prospect, he got into 23 games post draft. 9 games in the ACL and 14 in low A. Top talents like him could probably still go straight to A ball. Mid round prospects, like our own Christopher Paciolla, don't usually get into formal games their draft year at all. College players often spend like a weekend in the complex league before going into full season ball. They're also not going to really miss anything. Moving everything up a month I think makes it more likely that the really young and raw guys get a ~month in full season ball if they show out in their complex league. Think like Owen Caissie in '21 or Ballesteros in '22.

When you have the quality and quantity of players under rep that Boras has you can operate this way. There are 4 players left on the market you could call impact guys, all are repped by Boras. He also has JD Martinez, who you might argue is the 5th best player on the market. There are a couple quality guys left he doesn't represent like Amed Rosario, Michael Lorenzen, and Brandon Belt. But more or less Boras' agency owned/owns all of the impact talent this winter outside of Nola, Gray, and the Japanese guys. Next winter is not going to be much different with Soto, Cole, and Bregman. Boras represents such a critical mass of players, and particularly the upper class of players, that he can literally move the market. Some player whose agent is like his lawyer uncle has to operate more like what you describe.