Bertz

This is...uhh...not especially subtle

This gets to why I *really* hope we can get Bellinger to go the Carlos Correa route and take a deal where he probably opts out again in a year. I'm not so naive to think every prospect is going to succeed, but like holy crap is our 1B/OF situation crowded. Attrition can hit this group hard and I think we still end up with pretty enviable depth in a few years. I like the way you put it out but put another way: - Two fringe MLB All Star corner outfielders under 30 (Happ, Suzuki) - Two consensus top 100 prospects in CF, one who's already gotten a taste of MLB (PCA, Alcantara) - Two consensus top 100 prospects at 1B/COF. One who is about as MLB-ready as a prospect can possibly be (Busch, Caissie) - A consensus top 100 infielder who some people think should shift to CF (Triantos) - I don't have a pithy way of bucketing him but Christopher Morel - Five more quality prospects who might impact the 1B/OF mix (Ballesteros, Canario, Franklin, McGeary, Murray) All of this is already at AA or higher, meaning an ETA within a year is reasonable if not the expectation. If Bellinger's a 125 wRC+ guy who cares, he's a star and we'll happily figure out how to fit all the pieces together. If he's more like a 110 guy, which a lot of the data from last year points to, that still helps the 2024 Cubs a ton. But in '25 and beyond? While he's still a quality player I'd much rather have 1B/OF be Happ, Suzuki, and the kids and have that $25M back to reinvest elsewhere.

It's not a bad question. So looking at a leaderboard for last year, if we add up putouts and assists the guys who played 3B full time had between 350-400. So let's call it 2.5 chances per game? My guess is it would vary significantly game by game though. With Jameson Taillon on the mound, a righty flyball pitcher, you might get one or two. With Jusin Steele on the mound, a lefty groundball artist, you probably get like 6 or 7. TT's thrown around 3B being very matchup dependent. And you've hit on one of the considerations, matchups don't have to just be the opposing starting pitcher. Assuming no more logs are thrown on the 3B fire I'd guess we'll see Madrigal start damn near every Justin Steele and Jordan Wicks game. But with righties on the mound, or at least flyball lefties like Imanaga, I think there's a little more freedom to play Morel or Wisdom or Busch there.

Even the Angels signed Aaron Hicks, which doesn't prevent a Bellinger signing but is a weird thing to do if you're planning to add yet another OFer. My guess is they're Snell or bust. Bellinger's options are the Cubs or doing the Jayson Werth thing and going to a bad team on the upswing but still a year or two early. Tigers maybe? I'm interested in the DH market too. JDM, Jorge Soler, and Brandon Belt should all get 8 figure deals. Then there's an army of lesser guys (e.g. Carlos Santana and Eddie Rosario) who will get closer to $5M. The Mets seem liable to add one of the primo guys, and there've been rumblings about a Belt/Bochy reunion in Texas, but I have no idea who will sign the third one. Plenty of other teams can still use DH help but they're cheaper teams I expect to shop in the Santana tier. If Jed wants one of the primo DHs it seems like at least one will be there on a silver platter for him.

Not exact, but equivalent from us would be something like Polanco for: Drew Smyly Julian Merryweather James Triantos Brody McCullough I know Trueblood thinks he couldn't handle 3B but I'm not sure it's that definitive so I probably have done this deal. Definitely would have wanted to if we hadn't pulled down Busch already.

You haven't looked at the other teams in the central have you?

Yeah if true the way I see it there's four possibilities 1. They sign one of the Boras 4, with Snell being the most likely 2. They are trading for Dylan Cease 3. They are finally trading Miller/Woo for a comparable young bat 4. Jerry does one of his classic "trade two quarters for five dimes" type of deals where he just rearranges the Mariners roster out of impulse Any of the trades can involve the Cubs. We did see that rumor that he was talking to the Cubs about Madrigal, and Morel is an obvious fit there as well. And even a FA move would have market impacts, even if it's Snell who we don't think Jed is in on.

There is scuttlebutt on Twitter that the Mariners are about to do something big.

Baseball-Reference has them, but not broken out by level. That's the best I've seen since MinorLeagueSplits.com went under unfortunately

I think, broadly, they're the same caliber of player and at positions of similar need for the 2024 club. So I think it's helpful to look at a list of pros and cons for each. Bellinger Pros - Bellinger is 2.5 year younger. This is a huge deal on long term contracts - Bellinger's offensive style fits the club better. Chapman is a RHH hitter with poor contact, particularly on pitches up, and light tower power. We already have two of those in Wisdom and Morel, they just can't play anywhere near Chapman’s caliber of defense - Bellinger's already tight with the team, showed he works well with the coaches, etc. Basically he's shown he's an A+ fit with any soft factors you might consider - Bellinger can float between 1B or any OF spot and play plus defense. As he gets older he should be able to gracefully slide down tbe defensive spectrum. Chapman’s a superb 3B defender, but that's that. And when he gets older 1B is the logical transition spot - Bellinger doesn't cost a draft pick. There is the opportunity cost of the pick we would gain if he signs elsewhere, but even there we're talking pick ~75 vs. pick ~45 Chapman Pros - Chapman’s probably going to get quite a bit less money. Jeff Passan ballparked it as $175M for Bellinger and $125M for Chapman - Chapman is a MUCH safer bet to perform. Last year's 3.5 WAR was the worst season of his career on a per inning basis, he'd never been below 4 (on a prorated basis his rookie year and 2020) before that - I think most of us would agree that we feel better about the internal options at CF and 1B more than 3B. So on this roster replacement level is a lower bar for Chapman to climb over I've said this elsewhere but essentially what it boils down to for me is I think Chapman’s a better option purely for 2024 while Bellinger is a guy I'm more likely to still want on the team in the back half of his deal.

I like Turner a lot. I like Belt a smidge more but Turner would be a really strong add to the 1B/DH mix.

Bob Nightengale. Usually teams don't make formal offers until they think they and the agent are in the same ballpark so it's sort of a semantics thing.

^ This is what it feels like to be pro-Williams rather than anti Fields on the same board as Kyle

I didn't realize the 40 man was already full. It'll probably be a straightforward Rucker or Kilian DFA to accommodate Neris but we're probably at an elevated likelihood for a trade until we see that happen.

Yeah the pitching staff feels like it's a #2 starter away from being stellar. Bellinger being a young athletic position player will likely age the best of the four (probably by quite a bit at that), but purely for 2024 I think he's actually the worst fit after the team added Busch.

Ken's notes have two interesting bits, one potentially good one potentially bad. First the bad, the Blue Jays are playing in the same LHB (or failing that a RHB who can hit RHP) waters as the Cubs. He doesn't tie the Jays to Bellinger, but it's hard to read this and not think, dollars aside, Cody still makes a ton of sense there post Keirmaier. The good news is on the Jordan Montgomery front. Namely it's hard to say who has the appetite to pull him in. The Yankees/Angels have been connected to Snell, while the Rangers and Red Sox have generally been tied to Montgomery. Well....

Like Stratos said there's only ~$25m in usable money left if the first LT tier is the line. So in that situation I'd expect one of the Boras 4 and that's it. Maybe some shuffling at the back end of the roster (e.g dumping Wisdom or adding another optionable reliever). If the first LT limit isn't the line, and it's the second LT tier like many of us have assumed all winter, things get a lot more interesting. Like you said they don't need more SP depth, and I would still like Belt but it's not a need. I think you see one of three paths, and I'll rank them most likely to least likely 1. Another reliever and a bat. Something like Ryne Stanek + Brandon Belt. Or a cheaper RP and a more primo bat like JDM. Really build out the team's depth 2. One of the above and one of Brandon Woodruff/Liam Hendriks. Basically spend some 2024 dollars on 2025 wins 3. Grab another of the Boras 4. Grabbing a second one of these guys would make us clear division favorites, though the longer term financial situation gets a bit dicey. Also unless Montgomery is the second guy you're kind of blowing up your draft. So while it is the most fun I don't expect it, unless we can get one to do a short term deal

This actually leads to a related convo which is how much more is left in store for the offseason. Right now the team is $30M under the LT and a Chapman or Bellinger away from having a reasonably complete roster. Do we think Jed is just holding out to get one of them at ~$25M per annum for as few years as he can commit to and then calling it a winter? Or is the team going to run the $250Mish payroll we've been expecting all winter? In which case there's room for another move or three.

Yeah I'm guessing, particularly with it looking like there will be 3 lefties in the rotation, that they're fine being a little righty heavy.

So right now, the pen looks like this: CL - Alzolay SU - Merryweather, Nerris MR - Leiter, Almonte, one of Cuas/Little/Palencia LR - Smyly, Assad or Wesneski I assume Jed is done adding to the pen, at least guys with locked in roster spots. But it wouldn't be that hard to squeeze in one more reliever, and you could argue the group needs a traditional left on left option.

Neris' velo went the wrong way last year, and with all the innings he's thrown the last few years I worry it's not coming back. That said I think even at 93-94 he's a quality setup option. He's just probably not the elite guy he was a few years ago.

Love Carl. Him skipping the Trump White House visit to go to the dinosaur museum is one of the top off the field moments with the last core.

- The Cubs last winter signed Eric Hosmer to man 1B instead of just pairing Mervis with the RHH Mancini - The Cubs gave Matt Mervis less than 100 plate appearances before sending him back to Iowa - The Cubs used Miles Mastrobuoni and as their primary LHH bat off the bench for most of the summer - On not one but two separate occasions last year the Cubs added Jared Young to the 40 man and called him up because they wanted a LHH bat for 1B - The Cubs traded for a different 26 year old AAA 1B and have indicated that he will be an everyday player, primarily at 1B How anyone can think the org has any faith in Mervis is wild to me. One or two of the above can be handwaved away, but all 5? They could very easily be wrong, but the Cubs clearly do not think anything of Matt Mervis.

The thing about the Angels is we can say with damn near 100% certainty they are not crossing the LT line. We've been chalking them up as the most likely landing spot for one of Snell/Montgomery, so if they do jump in the fray for Bellinger (which I do ultimately doubt) it makes it that much easier to pull one of the pitchers down. I think to me the chalk outcome for the big 4 is Bellinger -> Cubs Snell -> Angels Montgomery -> Rangers Chapman -> Giants Since it sounds like Jed's plan is to pull one of these four down, with Bellinger simply being the preference, I'm not too worried unless another team jumps into the fray. The Yankees or Mariners pulling down Snell seems like the most likely confounding scenario.

With the relief market moving at a pretty good clip, including guys I actually wanted in Robertson and Stephenson starting to come off the board, this is kind of where I'm at with the free agents. Guys I'd be happy with: - Ryan Brasier Guys I'd be okay with: - Ryne Stanek - Scott Alexander - Jake Diekman - Hector Neris There's a million options on the trade market, so it's not a panic situation, but I think on the free agent market anyone beyond these five I'd probably rather simply go without than guarantee them the money and more importantly the roster spot.