Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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I did the counting by hand so I might be off by one or two, but only 10 of MLB Trade Rumors have signed so far. Ohtani and to a lesser extent Yamamoto have held most things up. People are getting antsy because of the calendar, but in terms of inventory left on the market we're very much in the early stages. It's just going to be an annoying offseason where a ton league-wide doesn't gets done until January. Kind of like that Harper/Machado offseason.
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That's fair. I think given his salary, plus the fact that he's both a stuff and command guy I'd do it. Clase's going to make Brad Boxberger/Michael Fulmer money the next three years, and still only setup guy money assuming those options get picked up. That financial flexibility he opens up is huge. And given that he's got strong command, I'm not worried about him going all Kimbrel on us and turning into a pumpkin the instant his fastball dips below 97 MPH. But I do also understand just never ever ever paying that much for a reliever. It's probably the smart approach.
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At this point I feel like I've seen a half dozen ways of trying to suss out how good of a hitter Bellinger is moving forward, and they all seem to converge in the 110-120 wRC+ range. I think he's worth Brandon Nimmo money in CF. He's worth maybe a third of that at 1B? For the Cubs I think he'd be worth around $100M pricing in some PCA failure risk. But he's going to do so much better than that elsewhere. He'll probably get a contract starting with a 2 considering how desperate Toronto and San Fran are. Like you said thank him for an awesome year and let him walk.
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I'm not worried about Clase's performance. IMO he just needs to throw a few less strikes. His Stuff+ was right in line with where it was the last two years, and second in all of baseball behind the horribly underrated Ryan Pressly. I'll say the pursuit of him is pretty complicated because he's going to be extremely expensive. BBTV says something like Morel + Wicks + Caissie. And that passes the smell test, Clase would be a $100M reliever in FA but is instead signed for 3/$14M with a couple of options. $60-70M of surplus value sounds about right. Even at that steep cost though I do really think about it. I'm generally a skeptic about Counsell having pythag-beating superpowers, but if really want to let him cook you've got to give him tools like he's used to. And the farm is deep enough to take a hit like that in stride. If not now then when?
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Interesting idea that this is a backdoor to an ownership stake.
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Ohtani was viewed as being worth approximately $450M a month ago, so basically this is a way for him and his agent to have the status and cache of of a $700M contract while the Dodgers pay him something closer to what he's actually worth?
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lol. Lmao even
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I'd guess not unless they're thinking of moving Kepler or Wallner to the infield. Polanco's definitely on the block because they have Lewis and Julien ready right now and Brooks Lee not far off. But with the poor year Jose Miranda had they don't have someone obvious at 1B behind Kirilloff. That said they're one of the teams pretty up against it because of the TV money bubble bursting. They might be willing to do some creative roster maneuvering to cut cash.
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During the Winter Meetings the Athletic guys mentioned Jed's been talking to the Mariners and Kelenic was among those discussed before he went to the Braves.
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Is he optionable? I get fuzzy on how that works with guys who've been non-tendered. I think they can refuse the assignment? And while he was bad last year he's probably too good for a minor league deal? Mostly I see no reason to shop in this end of the market. If we acquire a SP it needs to be someone you'd prefer to Assad/Wesneski and if we acquire a RP it needs to be someone you prefer to Little/Palencia. A deal that really guts our MLB-ready depth could change the calculus, but with Soto off the table not sure I foresee one of those. Cleveland and Seattle would primarily want bats from us. Glasnow would probably cost an MLB arm but not multiple. Maybe over the course of multiple deals we get there. IMO the worst thing Jed could do this winter is acquire dudes who are just sort of there (e.g. Brad Boxberger). I want pitchers who we have a high degree of confidence in on a per-inning basis or guys who can be stashed at Iowa. Injury risks are fine. I love Glasnow, I'm down with James Paxton, etc. They're either producing or not on the roster.
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Before Stearns took over there was a ton of smoke on Alonso. Since then there's been pretty much nada. I expect the new boss clamped down on that idea real quick. Unfortunate because he's in that offensive tier in between Soto/Ohtani and all the guys we're talking about now.
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Color me skeptical on the Dodgers going after Glasnow. Their rotation is a MASH unit as is. The Cubs are in a situation where you'd rather have 3.5 WAR over 120 innings than over 180. The Dodgers are very much the opposite.
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I know this has been talked about ad nauseum but man things are so much easier on the position player side if you feel like you can comfortably play Morel at 3rd.
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Yeah I like him a ton. His contact is slipping as he ages but it's still ++ patience and + LHH power.
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Yeah I mentioned Bieber + Glasnow last night but that's probably more of an either/or because as you say that makes next winter pretty tough. Bieber and a FA (whether that's Yamamoto, Imanaga, or Montgomery) still leaves you room for 2 bats of substance. Glasnow would either have to be the sole SP acquired or paired with a trade for someone fairly cheap (one of the Mariner arms?). I really need Jed to make his first move because there's just too many options and contingincies right now. Once he's made one or two it's easier to follow that throughline.
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So apparently the Sharkk Tank guy is a CAA (Ohtani's agency) client as well. Folks on Twitter are wondering if he was in on all the nonsense Friday and honestly not the craziest conspiracy theory I've heard.
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I really like grabbing pretty much any combo of the three Cleveland guys. And they would loooooooovvvveeeeeeeeee either of Morel or Canario. Honestly maybe both.
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Curious what exactly the Dodgers do from here. Obviously the answer is pitching but wondering how much more money they've got to throw at it. Saw some people hand-wringing about Glasnow but I don't see it. With that offense and how many injuries they already have on their pitching staff, I think they prioritize and durability. Jordan Montgomery and Corbin Burnes maybe? They could do that and still only be at that ~$270M mark where they've topped out the last few years.
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I don't think anything really big is coming at this point. I'd guess they'll be in on Yamamoto to an extent, but not an outbidding Steve Cohen extent. And I'm sure there are scenarios where they'll bring Bellinger back, But otherwise I think it's going to be a deal where they add 10-12 WAR over 5-6 players. It'll probably be more skewed towards run prevention than we were looking for coming into the winter. In my mind's eye that looks something like this: Glasnow ~3.5 WAR / $25M Bieber ~3.0 WAR / $12M Hoskins ~2.5 WAR / $20M Polanco ~2.5 WAR / $10.5M Clase ~1.5 WAR / $4.5M The thing about a spread the money around offseason though is there are a lot of ways to skin that cat.
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That's my takeaway too. They're paying $500M-something for Ohtani the player and another $100-200M for Ohtani the brand
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This is the Roster Resource guy for Fangraphs So even outrageous deferrals only pull the AAV down by 10ish percent?
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