Bertz

I think they want to keep the extra rest of a 6 man rotation, and with Wicks' injury this is how they make it work. So yeah I'd guess everyone stays on schedule from here.

It didn't end up in the box score because of the penalty but this was the most impressive play of the day IMO

Yeah it's like 90% luck. There was this weird thing in the first half where because Morel was so comically unlucky, it took up all the air in the room and it was hard to have the conversation about Swanson without it coming off as excuse making. And forget about Miguel Amaya getting in on that convo. And honestly I think the other part might be simple strength of schedule. There was a stretch in late April to early June where the Cubs played a brutal gauntlet of pitchers. Even teams that don't have the best pitching (the Reds for instance) the Cubs seemed to always draw the top of their order. By Pitch Info, in the first half of the year, the Cubs faced an average fastball of 95.01 MPH. The Braves were second at 94.68. That 0.33 difference is the same as the difference between the #2 Braves and the Orioles at #19. Velocity is not a perfect proxy for pitcher quality, but when you're more than a full standard deviation beyond your next closest peer it's a problem. Here in the 2nd half, Cubs are 27th. Swanson has improved across the board in the second half, but when looking at peripherals rather than production, it's all small incremental improvements. He cut his groundball rate, but not dramatically. His K's have gone down a lot, but the contact/discipline numbers have moved improved far less. I think those peripheral improvements are the ebbs and flows of quality of competition, while the topline production is largely BABIP.

I assume tomorrow's a regular bullpen day and Pearson's just going one or two, but it'd be fun if I'm wrong.

It is September of his rookie year and he threw for over 350 yards at just a hair under 7 yards per attempt. And this wasn't some game where they were trailing by 30 and he was playing against backups and vanilla coverages, it was never even a full two touchdown game. There was some ugly and of course the team lost, but man I have a hard time not being very encouraged by what Caleb did today.

Even setting the Cubs of it all aside TT's Luis Castillo trade idea feels the most right from the Mariners POV. If I'm Jerry DiPoto and my seat is getting a little warm, turning around and immediately throwing Castillo's salary at a bat (probably Alex Bregman) is far preferable to the extra prospect oomf you get from trading one of the younger guys.

Ethan Roberts has an ERA under 2 in September. There's some fortune involved but it's still an xFIP under 4. Getting a taste of leverage too. Not a circle of trust arm yet, but probably enough that you write his name in pencil in next year's opening day pen.

Might be a precaution in case today gets rained out.

My phone says it's supposed to rain til 6ish. I assume this close to the end of the year they camp out and we get a late one.

Here's a question I'd love to hear Jed's answer to: Pretend everyone is healthy and 40 man considerations don't exist, how many starters currently in the org do you start in a must win game over Brandon Birdsell? Steele, Shota, and Taillon are locks. Assad's a pretty safe assumption as well. Brown was a monster pre-injury so even with his lack of experience he's probably not far behind Assad. That leaves Wesneski, Wicks, Horton, and Kilian. I'd probably take those four in that order, and slot Birdsell just ahead of Horton? But it feels like you could argue Brandon ahead of any of them without too much mental gymnastics.

I was a big Riley Thompson guy, but I feel like the fact that he was pretty bad in relief is a sign it's safe to move on. Like if they want to keep him around as a warm body because of the familiarity that's fine, but he's not a priority roster add at this point.

Yeah I'm generally of the mind that we don't need an *elite* bat necessarily but we absolutely need a lefty masher. Teoscar Hernandez is probably the ideal in that regard but someone like Taylor Ward would be acceptable.

WOW

He's had a rough 2nd half but this feels icky. Impacts us the next two days.

This is another reason I'm not going to lose sleep if we end up with a more well rounded outfielder than a pure DH. I don't think that Seiya is a better hitter as a DH than as an OF, but it does appear that he's not worse. And that is a skill, most guys are worse or just straight up don't like to play it except as an occasional half day off. For example, Vlad Jr.: Overall - 137 wRC+ career, 167 in '24 As DH - 121 career, 131 in '24 Anthony Santander: Overall - 113 career, 131 in '24 As DH - 92 career, 95 in '24 Pete Alonso (only one game at DH this year so just career): Overall - 132 As DH - 111 It's not everyone. Teoscar Hernandez is fine at DH. Juan Soto unsurprisingly excels at DH. But just a consideration before we go completely moving around the defense like it's MLB the show.

I mean 10 guys for 9 positions (including DH) is what any team that wants to legitimately compete should strive for. But on Bellinger specifically, him opting in is not ideal but ultimately fine. There is increased pressure to add power in other places, for instance Carson Kelly loses some appeal at catcher. But ultimately you shouldn't make any rash decisions because you're "stuck" with Bellinger's 20 homerun bat instead of the 30 homerun bat you're hoping for.

Making some ill-advised Bellinger trade feels like a real missing the forest for the trees deal. I would like to add some power to this team, but three wins coming from a well rounded skillset of power/contact/defense vs. three wins from mostly just power is at the end of the day a mostly lateral move. Paying down Bellinger's contract in a desperation trade very very quickly erases any benefits.

Yeah I've been as guilty of this as anybody, but this widening AAA/MLB gap thing is just something we all need to mentally adjust to. You're no longer a phone call away the second you graduate from AA.

Every trade Hoerner scenario I've seen either grossly overestimates how confident we can be in Matt Shaw's near term production or feels like this, swapping out getting cheaper for improving offense:

Yeah it doesn't matter. There's some real incentive to add power to the lineup. More dongs = more crooked numbers = fewer close games = better rested pitching staff. But there's no magic thing about the offense that suddenly unlocks when you add a wRC+ north of 150. It's just aesthetics.

I think a lot of the low hanging fruit has been plucked, but it's certainly an area that can improve especially with a young guy. Like just look across the outfield at Owen Caissie. He was at 47% two years ago at SB and now is a smidge under 40% now at Iowa. Feels similar to significant changes in walk and K rates, where it happens often enough that you know it's possible, but infrequently enough that it's clearly not just a flip of a switch (at least without breaking something else in the process). And while uncommon it's definitely possible to succeed as a power hitter with a 50+% GB rate. Yandy Diaz, Christian Yelich, Vlad Jr., etc. Especially if Kevin's contact and discipline numbers stay so shockingly solid. Like Alcantara's in Zone Contact rate is 0.2% off of what Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto are running in MLB right now. Obviously doing it at Iowa is very different, but just to illustrate the level of contact he's currently 1making. I know with his long levers I was certainly expecting Dansby Swanson/Chris Morel levels of beatable in the zone and he's nowhere near that.

I think if crossing the LT was some sort of grave job costing level error, you definitely make a Taillon trade, easy peasy. Timing probably made Bellinger un-dealable, but maybe some PTBNL focused deal could have been workable? Smyly and Neris clearly didn't have major value, but probably could have been gotten rid of by using prospects. For instance send the Yankees one of them along with Leiter and only get one prospect back instead of two. Like any of the above may have been problematic, but not pulling the trigger on any of them kind of inherently implies the LT wasn't some huge job costing level issue.

The most easy/direct/straightforward option is just to sign your favorite of Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Pete Alonso, or Tyler O'Neill. These guys are all a tier below what we'd ultimately hope for, but they're very good hitters who would fit relatively cleanly into the 1B/OF/DH mix. Bellinger's probably going to leave (IMO at least) and any of these guys would basically be 1 for 1 replacements of his salary and playing time while being more offense/power focused. The one thing that gives me some pause is they are each likely to get a QO, and Jed has to this point been unwilling to pay the QO price for non-stars. So if we're not looking at a FA, that obviously leaves trades. It would be fun to just go get one of the primo guys like Vladito or Rooker, though I do wonder about whether those guys are actually available given they didn't get move in July. I kind of wonder if we see a couple medium moves instead of one major move. For instance, the team could add something like Brandon Lowe and Taylor Ward. Ward would play everyday against lefties and part time against righties, while Lowe would do the opposite. This mix and match approach would also make it easier to fold in the kids from Iowa as they make themselves ready.

Fun Statcast Fact(s) I just looked up. Among our quintet if hitters at Iowa Kevin Alcantara has the: - Lowest chase rate - Highest hard hit rate and average exit velocity (by quite a bit) - 2nd highest max exit velo - 3rd in overall contact rate, 2nd on just in zone contact He's hitting way too many groundballs, and he/Shaw/Triantos are still very much in SSS territory, but he doesn't look super raw on paper.