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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    If you think about it at the very top end a guy like Robertson might make $12M? That's 10% of what they were offering to commit to Bregman. And Turner's certainly going to make less than that. The semantics leave some wiggle room to disappoint, but this time yesterday our expectation if they didn't come down with Bregman was Turner and another reliever, and I don't think anything he said today contradicts that.
  2. Bertz
    Yeah that definitely sounds like we can close the book on a big trade. Don't feel like it foregoes bench/bullpen moves though, especially with Counsell basically saying those were going to happen the day before yesterday.
  3. Bertz
    It's very simple time value of money stuff. There's no advantage. It gives sticker shock, but it's very much above board. That's why every time when the actual terms of the deals come out they magically equate to a deal more or less in line with expectations.
  4. Bertz
    Deferred money is not a competitive advantage lol
  5. Bertz
    I think broadly at this level of player ownership is part of the convo. I think too with Jed being in his walk year guaranteeing ~$90M past his current contract involves some asking for permission.
  6. Bertz
    - Check in one last time on Cease - Sign Turner and Robertson - Be open minded about options for that last bench spot Easy peasy. Then next month if the health situation is solid, you can consider some small deals to trade away some of the pitching depth that's not stashable at Iowa.
  7. Bertz
    I didn't even think about how Bregman choosing Boston screws over the Cards until I saw this (Judge is a Brewers fan). Very nice little bonus.
  8. Bertz
    The way the Athletic article about Turner was written, that sounded pretty far down the road. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a Cub tomorrow or Friday. The Pivetta thing likely means that Cease is close to getting dealt Hopefully the offseason can be done, from our perspective at least, by the weekend.
  9. Bertz
    Chandler Rome is Houston's Athletic Writer, so that would seem to be that. And wowza, $40M per year!?
  10. Bertz
    Given the ownership turmoil it seems very likely the Padres care more about real dollars than the cap. So Pivetta and Kings salaries being less than their cap hits is certainly a feature not a bug.
  11. Bertz
    I'm totally fine with Bregman going to Detroit, but when's the last time Ofman had sources worth a damn. Legitimately back to the Hendry era, no?
  12. Bertz
    Yeah I just posted in the general thread but Passan speculated just yesterday about the Padres signing Pivetta and then trading one of their guys.
  13. Bertz
    Soooooo Nick Pivetta to the Padres, and Jeff Passan wrote this yesterday Especially with Bregman sounding close, hold onto your butts?
  14. Bertz
    "Don't worry, we'll just dump money at the deadline while still maintaining our competitive ability" is like the epitome of the Tobias Fünke "but it might work for us" meme.
  15. Bertz
    Especially given he played winterball and didn't touch 1B yeah it's pretty clear this is a Bregman related deal. That said, they could have had Connor Joe or Ty France for just $200Kish more. So I'm curious which of these is why Canario's now the play: - Those guys were understandably not willing to wait on Bregman's decision before taking the bird in hand, so Jed's gotta scramble a bit - That $200K matters to Jed (might imply a sign Bregman keep Hoerner scenario?) - The team doesn't love Canario anymore (clearly) but still likes him more than that caliber of veteran It doesn't ultimately matter and we'll never know, but that second one popped into my head as a potential implication.
  16. Bertz
    Nodding to Trueblood's article this afternoon, I anticipate one bench player will be someone with a *very* tenuous grasp on a roster spot. They are keeping a spot warm until there's a multi-day but not IL-worthy injury or one of the prospects goes ultra instinct and forces a callup. Canario is still in the org IMO because there are certain permutations where it makes sense for him to be that guy compared to Workman or Brujan. But all three are clinging to the roster by their fingernails IMO.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    It should also probably be noted that Connor Joe and Ty France each signed 1/$1M contracts in the last week. Donovan Solano, whose current profile isn't too terribly different, got $3.5M. There's a pretty good chance we're talking about $4-5M rather than $8-10M, and the only alternative move this is truly incompatible with is Bregman
  19. Bertz
    I try to avoid linking to Twitter but Marquee doesn't cross-post videos and you can't screenshot one Counsell explicitly calls out the org's lack of depth at 1B. So I definitely expect one at this point. Likely Turner if no Bregman, and then someone more league minimum-y (Juan Yepez?) if paired with Bregman.
  20. Bertz
    Yeah Vlad Jr.'s probably the most expensive player they could plausibly add and even he'd be a smidge under $10M come the deadline? I don't hate the team holding onto more than the customary $10M for in season stuff, but once you get past like $15M you start leaving the realm of likelihood IMO.
  21. Bertz
    Why are you setting the bar at "up year" and "impact player" for someone everyone is clear eyed will be on the bench?
  22. Bertz
    Do you...think ZiPS (or any projection for that matter) doesn't know about this?
  23. Bertz
    If only there was some data that gives us an objective estimate of how age impacts player performance. Darn!
  24. Bertz
    Justin Turner has a 118 wRC+ the last three years, and ZiPS projects him for a 112 this season. That would make him the Cubs' 5th best hitter. None of the other bench options project to even 90. The projected offensive difference between Turner and Berti (our best offensive bench player currently!) is the same as last year's difference between Ian Happ and Bryce Harper. This also grossly underestimates how much playing time reserve players get. Even players who never hit the IL still miss ~20 games a year on average to normal rest. So while I'm in total agreement that Turner is primarily a 1B/DH at this point, there are ~80 starts to be had backing up 1B/DH/LF/RF (the latter two indirectly through Suzuki moving out of DH) even in a fantasy world where no one gets injured enough to hit the IL this upcoming season.
  25. Bertz
    This was Tucked away in Mooney's Bregman article last night. Combined with what Trueblood wrote, I'm assuming the Bregman backup plan is Turner and Robertson, maybe Finnegan.
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