Bertz

2 pretty much classic games, and yesterday was a lot more fun than the final score. Games 2 and 3 were kind of duds but overall not a bad series.

He's getting Muncy too?!?

How is he still in after Freeman?!? Teoscar is the go ahead run!

You cannot let Cole face the top of the order here

Aaron Judge being the Yankees center fielder is still so insane to me. Feels like completely independent of any Juan Soto pursuit they absolutely have to sign Bellinger.

MLB player projections are more or less three years averages with an aging factor sprinkled on. Having two of your last three years being good vs. two of your last three years being bad is a big difference, even with a lesser platform year. Specifically, the year he aged past was disastrous to the point he was the 3rd worst hitter in the league.

Two things I'm really curious about with regards to the pen: - Which guys on the market are going to insist on save opportunities? - How long of a contract is Jed willing to give to a reliever? With it looking increasingly like Bellinger is opting out, Jed has ~$80M to play with this winter. Even with the other shopping to be done, I'd be comfortable allocating as much as $20M to improving the pen? And without a Hader caliber reliever on the market, Jed can get almost any two relievers he wants with $20M. From the players standpoint, save opportunities limit where you can double up though. For instance, setting anything financial aside, it seems very unlikely Jed can sign both Clay Holmes and Kenley Jansen. Both guys want the ball at the end of the game, and someone's going to give it to each of them. From the team's POV, we know Jed hates multi-year deals to relievers. We also got some rumors last winter that he was willing to bend on that a bit with Counsell on board. It didn't end up happening last year, but with finances being a bit less limiting this winter it seems as likely to happen now as ever. But if, for example, Tommy Hottovy and Craig Counsell love Clay Holmes, but he requires a 3 year deal and la Robert Stephenson, does Jed pull the trigger? Ultimately, I'm hoping for a younger stuff-heavy guy like these three you've written up, paired with one of the older reliable vets. Clay Holmes + Chris Martin for example. A stuff heavy closer to step right in and be leaned on, plus a stable veteran to assist in setup with Hodge and Pearson. Would really turn the pen into a weapon. and not be that much of a resource hog.

I'd be pretty surprised by any sell moves of substance. Happ and Suzuki aren't going anywhere. I don't expect the team wants to move them, but even if they did they've got NTCs. Hoerner as well, you could have earlier squinted and seen a path to trade (e.g. Hoerner out, Brandon Lowe in), but after his surgery I'd guess those odds went from slim to nons. Taillon I think you could logically argue for, but if he was going to be moved I think it clearly would have been done at the deadline. Maybe Bellinger if he opts in? He doesn't have a NTC, he seems to pretty clearly have surplus value on his deal (if he opts in it is because he's angling for a bigger deal next winter), and he's a bit redundant on this roster. Otherwise I think we're in for buy trades or roster cleanup type trades.

Cubs' beat writers all expect Bellinger to opt out. Especially how close we are to decision time it feels about as clear as we're going to get until the definitive decision has been made.

You're using projections for Bellinger but last year's results for the rotation. To be apples to apples you need to compare the Soto upgrade over Bellinger to the Burnes/Fried upgrade over some combo of Wicks/Brown/Wesneski/Horton. There's also a very good chance Bellinger opts out, then it's Soto's 6.5 WAR vs. Tauchman’s 1.5. The general idea is right that we need to compare the new guys to what they're replacing, which is why 10 WAR =/= 10 Wins. However with Soto you're concentrating 6-7 WAR into one roster spot. You're also, because it's a long term contract, paying ~$40M this year for ~$60M in expected production. There's plenty of that with a Burnes as well, but not with guys on 1-2 year deals. If you want to maximize 2025 wins in FA, Soto is pretty clearly the guy. I'd go as far as to say by an order of magnitude. There are plenty of good offseasons to be had without him, but he's in line for the largest contract ever for a reason.

As late as August 24th Patrick Wisdom was still hitting at all league average clip

Which do you think is more likely: - The highest paid and generally highest regarded manager in the game is missing this crucial skill that is commonplace among his peers - You're being unreasonable about how easy it is to differentiate "no longer has the ability" and a simple slump

Because for his career until about July of this year he hit very well against lefties and soft tossing righties?

I gasped when I read this

I believe it's something proprietary Dan whipped up but similar to pre-Statcast UZR.

He was new to 3B so being something that would prorate to like -5 over a full season doesn't feel very concerning. Those middle infield numbers though, yikes. SSS of course.

I think trying to use something like Arrieta from when the team was explicitly down as a lesson for team building philosophy for 2025 is foolish. They were in pretty pure asset accumulation mode at that point. Even Mancini I think the wrong lesson is being taken. The lesson there is less "Jed likes horsefeathers 1B uh hyuk" and more "Jed was so unwilling to dip into the farm and Tom was unwilling to give him an advance on his allowance and terrible 1B production was the price." Given the low number of holes the roster has and the money available, there shouldn't be any positions left out in the cold like that this winter. What you might more reasonably worry about is to what extent he's willing to dip into the farm. A trade or two of substance or a Soto signing are probably needed to hit that magical 90 win projection Craig and Jed have called for.

2025 Projections won't hit Fangraphs for another week or two but I'd guess: Eovaldi - 2.5 Lowe - 2.5 O'neill - 2 Hoffman - 1 TBD veteran catcher - 1 Additional bench/bullpen tinkering - 1 So 10 WAR on top of a team that already looks a bit better than .500. That said because the team already has some decent depth at a couple of those spots, 10 WAR isn't going to equal 10 wins in the standings. This team probably gets you up to 87-88 wins? I think you need Soto or a trade or two to hit that 90+ win expectation.

I know the pitching down there is pretty sad, but an 1150 OPS is still extremely fun

Ironically, thinking about this more has me curious what role Jed's got in mind for trades. Assuming Bellinger is gone, with ~$80M to burn and these salary expectations it is pretty easy to do a full offseason in free agency. Something like Eovaldi (21 / year) O'Neill (16) Lowe (12) Hoffman (9) Is less than $60M, leaving plenty to address catcher and do some additional bench/bullpen fiddling. So if you're Jed and you also have plenty of resources to pursue the trade market. do you: - Hold steady and don't meaningfully dip into the farm since you don't have to. By mid-season you will have a better idea of attrition and should also have a guy or three absolutely pounding on the door and can make your big trade(s) from there - Make a trade for an impact player who is not due an impact salary. This has the double benefit of letting you aim higher in FA. For example if you trade for Brent Rooker you address "big bat" for only $5M. From there it's a lot easier to be comfortable graduating from the Nate Eovaldi tier of FA starters to the Fried/Snell/Burnes tier - Use trade to try and reduce the number of multi-year FA deals you have to hand out. For instance instead of signing Yusei Kikuchi to a $14M per year deal, trade for Dylan Cease and his $14M salary. The team currently has very little salary set to come off the books next offseason. So to maintain financial flexibility next offseason, you probably want a move or three this winter to be one-year deals, whether they be trades or FAs

*psssssttttt* Every big market name is going to be rumored tied to him

I would expect that at least one, potentially all of Wicks, Wesneski, and Brown to start the year at Iowa. That said I don't expect Kilian to make it to the holidays still in the org so it may not be something that totally blows up this depth chart. Likely just throw Kachmar or Thompson (probably Thompson?) into the bullpen for a few weeks before the first reinforcement is needed in Chicago.

Garret Crochet at his approximately $3M salary has a pretty decent argument for the biggest move Jed could possibly make this winter to impact 2025. Even including Juan Soto. As amazing as a 6-7 WAR outfielder is, in the immediate term a 4-5 WAR starter plus $40M in you pocket to spend on other players is even better. Snell I'm less keen on. Honestly mostly from a watchability standpoint. His slog 5 and dive starts are something I just don't want to sign up for in a SP market that has so many viable alternatives.