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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Yeah I think I've been as guilty of insisting "the Cubs have got to trade something" as anybody over the last 6 months. But the Paredes trade opening up a full time spot for Shaw and finding out that Alcantara has another option year in 2026 kills much of that urgency. I would like the Cubs to make a big trade now. But spending the rest of the offseason funds on boring stuff and heading into the trade deadline with a tall stack of chips is A Okay.
  2. Bertz
    Yeah for the Cubs it's closer to 75 usually
  3. Bertz
    Circling back to this. The Dylan Cease trade last year was for Drew Thorpe - A very good SP prospect at AA who made the back half of most of the offseason Top 100s Jairo Iriarte - A good SP prospect at AA for whom opinions diverged a bit more than Thorpe. Fangraphs 100'd him while MLB didn't for instance Samuel Zavala - A LatAm bonus baby who performed very well in Low A as an 18 year old Steve Wilson - A young RP with good stuff, a good ERA, and trash peripherals This isnt perfect, but the equivalent from us right now would be something like Horton, Birdsell, Jefferson Rojas, and Keegan Thompson? And that was for two years of Cease, not 1. So honestly, I'm not even sure a Caissie or Alcantara should be in bounds, especially if we're taking back Suarez. Assad, Wicks, and Preller's favorite non-Hodge reliever might be more appropriate. And he can address LF with the $$ he saves.
  4. Bertz
    On the prospect depth piece, it's also worth noting the pre-arb players that don't show up on prospect lists 0-1 year service: PCA, Brown, Hodge 1-2 year service: Amaya, Busch. Wicks 2-3 years service: Assad That's on top of the 4 hitters (Alcantara, Cassie, Triantos, Ballesteros) at Iowa who've shown up on a Top 100 list over the last week. Plus Horton and Birdsell. Plus the complimentary bench/bullpen types. You don't want to recklessly burn through this list but you can comfortably dip into it 2-3 times over the next 12-18 months IMO.
  5. Bertz
    Rental pitchers don't generally net anything close to that because of pitcher attrition. Hell just look at Cease specifically. Last spring two years of Dylan Cease didn't return a headliner anywhere near the caliber of Shaw, it certainly wouldn't now.
  6. Bertz
    I'd consider Caissie a much better roster fit for the Padres than Alcantara - Jackson Merrill was great in CF last year so the coverage there is a pure nice to have - The Padres are also bad at whichever of 1B/DH Arraez isn't playing on a given day. Arraez may not be long for the org on top of that - When you look at their lineup it doesn't feel like it *needs* a lefty, but from last year the prominent departures in LF are Jurickson Profar (switch) and David Peralta (lefty) so you'd assume they'd prefer a lefty backfill. Especially since Eguy Rosario appears ready to step into a bigger role from the right hand side All that being said, in this situation I think you take the player you like more since a year from now those roster considerations may be wildly different. But in my mind's eye I see Caissie and two SPs, and the real haggling is over which SPs.
  7. Bertz
    Sample sizes are obviously tiny, but Brown didn't have a TTO penalty last year. He also only faced three teams twice: two of those he pitched a strong game the second time and the 3rd, against the Reds, was his last game before his season ending injury (so it buddies the causation). I'm not going to make major declarations off of 55 innings, but I don't think we've seen anything from a performance standpoint that says he can't be a SP. If you want to throw in the towel early off of durability that's fine, but also IMO feels premature. The other thing is that he is CLEARLY our best young pitchers on a per inning basis right now. It's not close. Given the number of young SPs the Cubs have, and the Cubs market status allowing them to pay market rate for guys like Taillon and Boyd, you have to prioritize the potential star power of Brown (and Horton) when considering some sort of assett consolidation deal. Even if Brown and Assad for instance have the same expected value, a team in the Cubs' position should prioritize Brown's vastly superior 80th+ percentile outcomes.
  8. Bertz
    Keith Law ranked the Cubs as having the #6 farm system, which IMO feels a bit rich. Law's rankings have always been focused on the top tier of the system though. So it is consistent for him to love the farm right now after having been comparatively light on it the past few years.
  9. Bertz
    Didn't actually read the full Levine article until just now, so completely missed this I would love Jorge Polanco. You'd assume this means Moncada is still on the table as well. Also implies Brujan probably shouldn't be in too big a hurry to find a place to live in Chicago.
  10. Bertz
    Bregman’s not much (any?) better than Hoerner. He's more offensively inclined but not really better. If you do the Nico/Bregman swap the benefits are - The lineup fits together way more nicely - You presumably get something substantial back for Hoerner - Nico is part of the "cliff" after 2026. Happ, Nico, Seiya, Taillon, and Boyd all hit FA. Not all of those guys are tough replacements, but there's something to be said about that much turnover all at once regardless of impact. Bregman would presumably be on a 3 year deal with an opt out after 1, so swapping him in for Nico smooths out some of that roster churn
  11. Bertz
    Man he must really not want to go to Detroit.
  12. Bertz
    I'm guessing it's tied to velo. There was a note in, I believe the Athletic, about how the Cubs felt they could get a little more velo out of him. I also saw someone, Brendan Miller maybe, noted that his velo was kind of all over the place last year. Like he was down a full MPH for the year but he had a lot of outings where he was still sitting 95.
  13. Bertz
    I think my preference from where we go here is in this order: 1. Get something done with the Padres. A 3rd playoff caliber SP is basically the only remaining way to significantly juice this roster's win total, and we have some depth to deal from at Iowa. I have zero reservations about having two primo rental players. None. 2. Sign the best complimentary players you can to round out the roster. Can you get Robertson/Canha/Laureano for $25M? I think it's close! Even if you only want to spend $20M and push a bit more money to July you could sign two and skimp on the 3rd (e.g. swap in Stanek for Robertson). 3. Sign Bregman/Flaherty/Alonso - I don't expect these guys to get a 1 year deal, and I'm VERY nervous about adding a potential multi-year deal at $20M+ per year. That basically locks in that in order to extend Tucker Tom needs to raise payroll or Jed needs to move a significant salary. I do not like signing up for that a year in advance. I still vividly remember "Don't worry, we just need to trade Bryant to the Braves and then we can start our offseason."
  14. Bertz
    Over the last 3 years Statcast has him as a -5 defender at 3B over roughly half a season. I don't think you could count on him to get more than occasional time at 3rd. Similar to Patrick Wisdom last year, you'll be able to count on your fingers and toes the number of times he can play over there without it being a problem. I like Turner too, I think he's a good fit on the roster (I like him a smidge less than Canha), but we should just be clear eyed that he'd be primarily a 1B/DH.
  15. Bertz
    Kiley McDaniel 23 - Matt Shaw 50 - Moises Ballesteros 64 - Kevin Alcantara 86 - Owen Caissie 97 - Cade Horton Zyhir Hope was 70, Cam Smith 73, Jackson Ferris 93
  16. Bertz
    While there is always room for potential improvement, after adding Ryan Pressly and Jon Berti over the last week the Cubs' roster is looking reasonably complete. Jed Hoyer's offseason appears far from done however. The Cubs currently sit approximately $34M below the first Luxury Tax level according to Roster Resource, and Tom Ricketts confirmed he expects payroll to end up in that vicinity. Even if the team views the Luxury Tax line as a hard (self imposed) cap, they can add as much as $25M in salary and still leave buffer for mid-season maneuvering. According to a staff report from The Athletic, the Cubs are trying to take full advantage of their current position in the market: This would likely explain why rumors are all over the place right now. The team has been tied to Alex Bregman, David Robertson, and Michael King just in the short time since the Ryan Pressly trade was completed. With the aforementioned payroll flexibility as well as seven players on MLB Pipeline's recent Top 100 Prospect lists, the Cubs can plausibly land any player currently available. So expect additional moves from here, and whether it's genuine interest or another party trying to drum up leverage expect to see the Cubs included in a variety of rumors as well. View full rumor
  17. Bertz
    While there is always room for potential improvement, after adding Ryan Pressly and Jon Berti over the last week the Cubs' roster is looking reasonably complete. Jed Hoyer's offseason appears far from done however. The Cubs currently sit approximately $34M below the first Luxury Tax level according to Roster Resource, and Tom Ricketts confirmed he expects payroll to end up in that vicinity. Even if the team views the Luxury Tax line as a hard (self imposed) cap, they can add as much as $25M in salary and still leave buffer for mid-season maneuvering. According to a staff report from The Athletic, the Cubs are trying to take full advantage of their current position in the market: This would likely explain why rumors are all over the place right now. The team has been tied to Alex Bregman, David Robertson, and Michael King just in the short time since the Ryan Pressly trade was completed. With the aforementioned payroll flexibility as well as seven players on MLB Pipeline's recent Top 100 Prospect lists, the Cubs can plausibly land any player currently available. So expect additional moves from here, and whether it's genuine interest or another party trying to drum up leverage expect to see the Cubs included in a variety of rumors as well.
  18. Bertz
    Steamer's utility is in its availability not its accuracy. ZiPS is the gold standard among public systems.
  19. Bertz
    On top of this, the Cubs' farm currently is basically this Where the car is Iowa. So I don't want Jed to be a drunken sailor in dealing from that stockpile at AAA, but getting a borderline ace and essentially an IOU for a 2026 2nd round pick isn't the worst thing in the world from an organizational health standpoint. In moderation of course.
  20. Bertz
  21. Bertz
    The projections like Cease and King pretty equally, but Cease has WAY more track record (including shocking durability for someone who throws as hard as he does) and way better pure stuff. I imagine that impacts trade value to a meaningful degree.
  22. Bertz
    Festa is the roster casualty
  23. Bertz
    I suspect when ZiPS does their full run that Dodgers/Braves gap will close a decent amount. Even with the Dodgers adding Sasaki and Teoscar since that run, the IP totals for the rotation in the Fangraphs depth charts are laughably optimistic. That said I do otherwise think that feels right. Braves and Dodgers are the two best teams in the league (probably either league), and we're as good as anyone not in the NL outside of those two. Because of the sorry state of the NL Central we've hopefully got a fairly direct path to a playoff spot.
  24. Bertz
    King would be exciting and take this offseason from good to great. Even if you don't extend him, you can go into next winter with two QO free agents and basically commit yourself to retaining one of them (obviously Tucker would be top priority). I will say, given the drop-off from Cease to King, plus the presumed inclusion of Suarez, I don't think you can include Brown or Alcantara. I think Preller needs to take back a bit more quantity over quality in this instance. Assad/Wicks/Caissie instead of Brown/Alcantara for example.
  25. Bertz
    He has said before he thinks Caissie's contact issues are disqualifying. Justin Crawford running GB rates in the 60s and 70s is fine though apparently.
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