Bertz

Brandon Birdsell through 5 shutout under 70 pitches. He probably gets a 6th and has an outside shot st a 7th inning Owen Caissie with a triple, this hot streak feels like him smelling a shot at that September callup

I'm optimistic on this one too. Though I'm telling myself it's a bit different because the arrow is pointing up on essentially every single thing he's doing in the batters box, rather than just one or two things.

Even setting aside anything related to injury, I cannot fathom watching a baseball season, presumably not for the first time, and biting hard on every hot streak as a star turn and every slump as a sign that a guy is washing out of the league. Like do you see the sun rise every morning and go "Phew, I was pretty sure it was gonna stay down this time"

Kyle's season, and honestly the back half of his contract in general, is so disastrous I kind of wonder if he's salting the earth for low velo SPs going forward. Like does a guy who throw 89 and get Cy Young votes heading into FA get capped at 3 year offers in the same way a guy in his late 30's does?

I don't think a new guy is going to lose any playing time he wouldn't want to unless he comes in and faceplants, ESPECIALLY if it's Soto. I do think this situation is added incentive for Bellinger to opt out. The number of CF at bats seemingly available to him in 2025 goes down the longer PCA plays at this level. If his options are opt out this winter and get ~$100M or play another year and hope to put yourself in position for $150+, not being a primary CF would really put pressure on his bat to be 2023-esque to make the gamble worthwhile.

This is TT's hobby horse but having too many players is rarely a real problem. If Bellinger opts in you can still add a bat to the 1B/OF/DH mix and have 6 players for 5 spots, with Bellinger's positional flexibility allowing you to be 2+ deep at each spot. When we stop talking about on paper lineups and real games start that redundancy becomes incredibly valuable. I would prefer Bellinger opt out, I don't think he's $20M better than Tauchman and so would like to have that money available to throw at the pitching staff, but Cody opting in is not especially messy.

This would be a very funny game to win, so let's go ahead and do that

I'm not aware of any major drama, so I think it was general "he could use a change of scenery" stuff. Not great.

With Palencia and Thompson coming up today it's gotta come down to Kilian or Wicks. And the Athletic a few days ago kind of threw cold water on Wicks immediately rejoining the rotation so yeah it does feel like Kilian.

More hard contact than you'd like, but I love that the bullpen is in a place where the B team goes 8 Ks to 2 BBs. Resign Lopez and add one more late inning option and I don't think you need to worry next year, even early.

Steele will probably try and argue his way out for the 6th. Don't listen to him Craig, just go Pearson for 2, Thompson, Palencia to close this out please.

Yeesh BJ Murray

The Cards and young outfielders, yeesh. I don't know if this ever got confirmed but wasnt the rumor-ing at the time that the reason the Cards didn't get Soto because they weren't willing to include Carlson in the trade?

Given the injuries this might be necessary, but I'd like to see Palencia and particularly Keegan given leverage opportunities pretty much right away.

On the one hand Caissie's been a bit underwhelming at Iowa. A top ~50 prospect who plays a corner probably ought to be wRC+ing in more like 130-something. However: - Even though he's been around forever he's still very young. If he went to college he'd have been drafted last summer. Last year's college bats that have spent significant time at AAA or MLB have all been pretty underwhelming thus far (Langford, Schanuel, Crews), not to mention the guys still in the mid minors. And Caissie's still half a year younger than those guys. So even B- production at AAA for nearly a full season still has him as an age relative to league darling - Caissie's contact numbers appear to be settling in at "below average but not alarming" level. His in zone contact rate is in line with a ~20th percentile MLB mark. Obviously on promotion guys' numbers dip, but usually just a couple points. He looks likely to make contact in the Schwarber, Teoscar Hernandez, Randy Arozarena neighborhood. That's fine when you've got power+patience - The defensive reports have been surprisingly strong this year. I think there's reason to expect roughly average corner outfield defense for the short and medium term, which takes some pressure off his bat I think if you wanted to revise him down and call him more of a 45 because of the lack of ability to translate his power into in game dongs I wouldn't agree but I wouldn't fight you on it. I do think top 50 overall prospect is probably too rich though.

lmao

In May it definitely felt like an intentional move because of the standings, but it's wild that it's happening again. We are seeing a much much different Pirates team than the rest of the league is.

This PCA stuff is getting wild. It's only been a month, but the K rate feels particularly meaningful. Like power is super streaky sure but going from striking out 25-30% of the time to striking out like 10% of the time is not normal ebbs and flows stuff.

Because Craig Counsell has object permanence?

Yeah I think it has some real compounding effects in a positive direction: - You're getting a direct upgrade by more or less replacing Hendricks with a guy you expect to be 2.5-3 runs of ERA better - Like you said you're bolstering the pen, I'd anticipate Wesneski and Assad there, the former in short relief the latter in long - The opening day Iowa rotation, even with the above assumed in the pen, is Horton, Birdsell, Noland, and whichever of Brown/Wicks doesn't get the 5th starter spot - I think with that level of depth, you can more comfortably hunt for upside with that 5th spot and give it to Brown and take a big swing to try for star caliber production - While we've seen how quickly pitching depth can fade away, assuming the veteran we bring in doesn't have notably scary medicals you can probably afford to trade one of the pre arb SPs. Including an MLB ready (or damn close) SP is a really good way to differentiate a trade offer to either win a bidding war or potentially convince an obstinate southern California GM to stop being a wuss and make a deal already

Yeah adding a starter closer in talent to Steele/Shota than Taillon is a very straightforward and weirdly under-discussed way to add a bunch of wins to this team.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/25/2024&gamePk=752205&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown&sportId=11&liveAb= Looks like he topped out at 93.4. His velo's not way down, but one of the encouraging things in April/May before he went on the IL is that his FB was averaging about 93, up from last year. It's been down during his rehab, TBD if it comes back with big league adrenaline or if it'll take the offseason to get back there.