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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Every trade Hoerner scenario I've seen either grossly overestimates how confident we can be in Matt Shaw's near term production or feels like this, swapping out getting cheaper for improving offense:
  2. Bertz
    Yeah it doesn't matter. There's some real incentive to add power to the lineup. More dongs = more crooked numbers = fewer close games = better rested pitching staff. But there's no magic thing about the offense that suddenly unlocks when you add a wRC+ north of 150. It's just aesthetics.
  3. Bertz
    I think a lot of the low hanging fruit has been plucked, but it's certainly an area that can improve especially with a young guy. Like just look across the outfield at Owen Caissie. He was at 47% two years ago at SB and now is a smidge under 40% now at Iowa. Feels similar to significant changes in walk and K rates, where it happens often enough that you know it's possible, but infrequently enough that it's clearly not just a flip of a switch (at least without breaking something else in the process). And while uncommon it's definitely possible to succeed as a power hitter with a 50+% GB rate. Yandy Diaz, Christian Yelich, Vlad Jr., etc. Especially if Kevin's contact and discipline numbers stay so shockingly solid. Like Alcantara's in Zone Contact rate is 0.2% off of what Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto are running in MLB right now. Obviously doing it at Iowa is very different, but just to illustrate the level of contact he's currently 1making. I know with his long levers I was certainly expecting Dansby Swanson/Chris Morel levels of beatable in the zone and he's nowhere near that.
  4. Bertz
    I think if crossing the LT was some sort of grave job costing level error, you definitely make a Taillon trade, easy peasy. Timing probably made Bellinger un-dealable, but maybe some PTBNL focused deal could have been workable? Smyly and Neris clearly didn't have major value, but probably could have been gotten rid of by using prospects. For instance send the Yankees one of them along with Leiter and only get one prospect back instead of two. Like any of the above may have been problematic, but not pulling the trigger on any of them kind of inherently implies the LT wasn't some huge job costing level issue.
  5. Bertz
    The most easy/direct/straightforward option is just to sign your favorite of Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Pete Alonso, or Tyler O'Neill. These guys are all a tier below what we'd ultimately hope for, but they're very good hitters who would fit relatively cleanly into the 1B/OF/DH mix. Bellinger's probably going to leave (IMO at least) and any of these guys would basically be 1 for 1 replacements of his salary and playing time while being more offense/power focused. The one thing that gives me some pause is they are each likely to get a QO, and Jed has to this point been unwilling to pay the QO price for non-stars. So if we're not looking at a FA, that obviously leaves trades. It would be fun to just go get one of the primo guys like Vladito or Rooker, though I do wonder about whether those guys are actually available given they didn't get move in July. I kind of wonder if we see a couple medium moves instead of one major move. For instance, the team could add something like Brandon Lowe and Taylor Ward. Ward would play everyday against lefties and part time against righties, while Lowe would do the opposite. This mix and match approach would also make it easier to fold in the kids from Iowa as they make themselves ready.
  6. Bertz
    Fun Statcast Fact(s) I just looked up. Among our quintet if hitters at Iowa Kevin Alcantara has the: - Lowest chase rate - Highest hard hit rate and average exit velocity (by quite a bit) - 2nd highest max exit velo - 3rd in overall contact rate, 2nd on just in zone contact He's hitting way too many groundballs, and he/Shaw/Triantos are still very much in SSS territory, but he doesn't look super raw on paper.
  7. Bertz
    The honest answer is there probably isn't a path forward. The raw juice is in there for more power, but to get to it consistently probably requires a commensurate drop in contact. And even if he does figure out a better balance the defense will start sliding soon. That said he's a 4 WAR guy give or take a little bit each season depending on how generous the BABIP gods are. I probably wouldn't extend him a second time but we should all be extremely happy to have him through his current contract.
  8. Bertz
    Still surprised the Nationals are going to get to the end of Corbin's contract without making him a reliever. It really feels like that would have been a way to salvage things in the back half of the deal. With that slider and sitting more 93 than 91 it feels like he would have had a chance in a setup role a la Will Smith?
  9. Bertz
    Exactly. There is a horsefeathers implication from the team going over by a little bit, but it's no mismanagement or incompetence, it's resources. At this point it feels safe to say even in a championship window this team is probably going to top out $10-20M over the tax. There is a smaller implication, which is that the team is probably not going to sign a QO free agent. But honestly that's Jed's default status, this just seems to lock it in even tighter.
  10. Bertz
    The Athletic reported immediately after the Bellinger signing that they were likely close enough to the LT that they would end up over with normal day to day roster churn. This didn't sneak up on anybody, and even if Jed was painted into a corner by Boras on the exact structure of the deal (doubtful given how badly he got worked over on the subsequent Boras 4 signings) if it was some sort of deal breaker Jed could have cut some salary at the deadline. Like you say it's a "strategic blunder" and some sort of fixable offense, what exactly do you think the costs are of going over the line?
  11. Bertz
    I know steals are easier to come by than ever, but I still love that Triantos and Shaw both have that in their games.
  12. Bertz
    If crossing the LT was a grave sin that is going to cost Jed his job, why do you think he re-signed Bellinger to the deal that he did? Adding an extra year, lowering the AAV, and giving Bellinger additional money to opt into would have been a win win for all involved. Further, why did he add salary at the trade deadline knowing that all of the IL time in the first half of the year put them right on the edge?
  13. Bertz
    What are you basing any of this on?
  14. Bertz
    Yup. Lop off $25M if he opts in
  15. Bertz
    These rules are inscrutable, but Smyly doesn't impact 2025 at all. That money is accounted for already in '23 and '24. The CBA uses average annual values with buyouts and such included specifically to head off as many schemes and shenanigans as possible. Separately, a quick and dirty rule of thumb is that guys get a 50% raise each round of arb. If we use that rough number plus make these two assumptions: - Wisdom, Alzolay, Bethancourt, Madrigal, and Almonte all get traded or non-tendered - Jed holds $5M back for breathing room (trade deadline acquisitions, performance bonuses, IL time, etc.) I'm showing the team $79M under the tax. There might be a little deviation from those two assumptions above, which would likely lower the $ available. At the same time Jed showed this year he's not necessarily going to sweat being a couple million over, which would raise it. But overall without getting too deep into the accounting weeds $80M is a nice round number to us to collectively keep in our heads even if it might be off by a couple percent in either direction.
  16. Bertz
    Well nevermind on Palencia being safe I guess Wesneski pitched yesterday for Iowa so he'll probably be a Thursday or Friday move
  17. Bertz
    Yes but I hope they do it anyway. I assume Neely is out, so that's one. It would be weird to bring Palencia back yesterday and send him right back out today, so I assume he's safe. Roberts seems to have earned a bit of Craig's trust. Cut Armstrong and send Wicks back to Iowa?
  18. Bertz
    Leaguewide strikeout rate is also WAY higher now. 22.5% this year 17.5% in 2008. Having a slap hitter with a 10% K rate is now a refreshing change of pace.
  19. Bertz
    Going to be a heavy transaction day between this, Steele, and possibly Lopez.
  20. Bertz
    Hard to put exacts on it this far out but it's closer to 80M available if Bellinger leaves
  21. Bertz
    Nico Hoerner 1st half: 98 wRC+ Nico Hoerner 2nd half: 99 wRC+ Nico Hoerner 1st half xwOBA: .316 Nico Hoerner 2nd half xwOBA: .310 He was walking more in the 1st half and has had a bit more BABIP in the 2nd, but he's the same guy with some normal ebbs and flows of his peripherals.
  22. Bertz
    Sharma with a great one this AM: Talks Christian Franklin, Cristian Hernandez, Alfonsin Rosario, Brett Bateman, and Johnny Long. Here's Long's writeup:
  23. Bertz
    Not especially prospect driven but good lord striking out 18 opposing batters in the first game of a playoff series is a statement.
  24. Bertz
    I know pre-game yesterday they said Lopez is coming back in the next few days as well. Palencia and Lopez in Wingenter and Neely out?
  25. Bertz
    To the broader topic, I think it can be helpful to game these things out. Let's say for simplicity Cody's gone, Jed's got $80M to spend, isn't willing to trade major prospects, but is willing to eat a qualifying offer. Would you rather have: Scenario A (Bats Forward): - $25M and a QO on Pete Alonso or your favorite non-Soto OF bat - $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen - $15M on premium bench options like Amed Rosario and Carlos Santana - $20M on Nate Eovaldi or Yusei Kikuchi - $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man Scenario B (Pitching Forward): - $25 and a QO on Max Fried or comparable - $15M on a proven closer like Kenley Jansen or David Robertson - $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man - $15M on a pure DH like JDM or Justin Turner - $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen - $5M on bench help, probably a RHH platoon OF like Manny Margot
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