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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Fedde's been dealt, as has Zach Eflin Flaherty to NYY sounds pretty far along Skubal and Crochet sound like they're staying put, and even if not they're a different tier of pitcher Depending on the overlap between the Taillon and Yusei Kikuchi markets, I don't think there are any other major pieces of leverage impacting a trade left. If he takes the ball in two hours I'd be pretty shocked if he subsequently gets dealt tomorrow.
  2. Bertz
    Paredes Fun Fact I just found Cubs are 22nd in baseball in wOBA against velocity 95+. Paredes is 74th percentile in contact against 95+, and 80th percentile in wOBA
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  5. Bertz
    I think one if the things that Pearson likely needs to change is he throws too many strikes. Merryweather had this same problem in Toronto, he threw 54.6% of his pitches in the zone as a Blue Jay and got hit hard despite his primo stuff. In addition to the repertoire changes his improvements last year involved fishing for chase way more, dropping down to 47.6% in the zone. It sucks from a watchability standpoint but results wise you do generally want relievers to nibble. Pearson dropping the lesser of his breaking balls, changing the FB shape a bit, and piping the ball down the middle less might be enough to be that late inning arm we envision. I'd love over the next day and a half to try and find a lefty version of this profile too. Of the Cubs' high octane relievers on the Iowa/Chicago bubble Luke Little is the only lefty and obviously he's down for the year with injury.
  6. Bertz
    I do not think trading Hoerner and trading Taillon are all that comparable. Hoerner is a much better player and much much much more difficult to replace (much less improve upon). Trading Nico should basically be a non-starter at this point unless there's some perfect needle threading move out there where you address catcher with an immediate contributor a la the Brewers Burnes/Ortiz trade.
  7. Bertz
    If you'd trade him in December I see no reason not to trade him now. There are always Julio Teheran's floating around to be had and keep the spot warm. And hopefully we're not too far off from the kids coming back and one of them taking his slot.
  8. Bertz
    They don't have to directly impact each other, but my assumption is if Taillon actually ends up making this start he's staying.
  9. Bertz
    Fun little benefit I just thought of: the team can now have a normal functioning bench instead needing like three of them to also figure into the 3B mix.
  10. Bertz
    It would be cool if Jed got proactive and fixed catcher in the next 48 hours too. The to-do list this winter would be: - An outfielder, the quality and style of which depend on Bellinger and PCA's next 3 months - A high leverage reliever or three - Maybe a SP, depending on the Taillon decision and/or what young pitching goes out the door for that aforementioned catcher
  11. Bertz
    Since the start of '22 Paredes has been worth 9.6 WAR, and played at a 4.2 WAR/600 pace. If you remove all those expected homers, and like others have said that's pretty faulty logic for several reasons, he drops down to 7.5 WAR and a 3.3/600 pace. That's the floor more or less. So yes some shine comes off the Paredes apple leaving the Trop, but he's still a 3.something WAR player at a position where we have gotten -0.3 so far this year.
  12. Bertz
    People on Twitter are way overcorrecting on the expected homerun stuff. It's basically a live example of the bell curve meme
  13. Bertz
    He made the last catch of the inning prior is all I can tell from GameDay. But none of the Cubs prospect hounds tweeted about an apparent injury.
  14. Bertz
    So on the subject of hug watches, why do we think Alcantara got subbed out in the 8th inning? He's not a guy you take out for defense and it wasn't a pinch hit or pinch run deal. Also can we please please please get the overdue Tennesee->Iowa exodus on Tuesday?
  15. Bertz
    I'm still formulating my thoughts here but I think trading Taillon is a better idea now than it was this morning. You've now fixed 3B and done so while only committing $5-6M more in '25 salary. C is a position you can't throw a ton of money at even if you wanted (neither of Jansen or d'Arnaud, the top two catchers set to hit FA, will top $15M per year). An outfielder like O'Neill or Santander or Teoscar isn't a terrible fit with the additional clarity at DH, but only feels likely if Bellinger is gone? So I think you want to throw your dollars at pitching. I've made the point before but I'd rather have a 3 WAR SP making $25M than a 2 WAR SP in Taillon making $17M. That's even more true now IMO. I think the alternative is the "why not both" path where you spend some young pitching, probably on a controllable catcher.
  16. Bertz
    No this is exactly right. And Paredes is the posterboy for this cheat/hack along with yeah Ramirez, Semien, and Bellinger. Others might have it but don't have the track record to definitively call it a skill. Wrigley's long lines like Stratos pointed out will hurt. The wind feels TBD, I wouldn't be surprised if the instances of the wind blowing out help more than the instances of the wind blowing in hurt. The wind blowing in kills everyone, the wind blowing out disproportionately helps guys who just get it up in the air.
  17. Bertz
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#xhr-park Yeah he's a pull freak and will lose some dongs with the move to Wrigley. Not enough to make him bad but probably enough that he's more 1st division starter than fringe All Star
  18. Bertz
    The major reason I didn't want Paredes is because I expected to pay 4 win prices for a guy likely to play closer to a 3 win player. This price though feels like it properly values him as that latter guy. Also the farm is essentially fully intact, as is the cache of young SP. If Jed wants to make another big trade this winter he can and would still likely still have a top 10 farm afterwards.
  19. Bertz
    So Morel is doing like 90% of the lifting here. Clearly the Rays are team xwOBA with Morel's bat
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  21. Bertz
    I do not feel great about Paredes' offense fully translating to Wrigley Field, but fixing 3B and doing so with a guy as cheap as Paredes significantly raises the ceiling on next year's team.
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  24. Bertz
    I swear CubinNY has one of these moments at least once a week
  25. Bertz
    Guess the Cubs agreed lol
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