Bertz

They're going to blame the Comcast carriage dispute, which honestly would be fair if it were the first time but as we all know it's not.

Apparently they still make phones, and they're owned by Lenovo? https://fortune.com/asia/2024/01/19/remember-motorola-lenovo-wants-to-become-third-largest-smartphone-brand-globally/

Yeah there are 5 guys on the team that we want to have walk away in FA this winter: Neris, Lopez, Smyly, Bote, Hendricks. Actively rooting against Hendricks would be extremely gross, but the others yeah who cares. Everyone else though is someone we want around next year or would trade away. Either way like you said we want them playing well and piling up wins.

Not trying to be mean, but nothing from this passage makes sense. You're mad that he's bunting too much and that makes him too predictable and too easy to defend and your example is an at bat where the opposing team bit and defended against it despite it never happening?

FWIW DVOA basically hates the team this year. It doesn't like that the defensive turnaround in the 2nd half was built on hauling in an inordinate number of INTs and it does not like the lack of a 2nd pass rusher of note. The offense it doesn't love either, but I don't think DVOA has ever been good at disentangling QBs from their support systems so there is likely a lot more residual Fields baked in there than there should be. Plus it's inherently not going to project a rookie QB to light the world on fire, it would be irresponsible for a projection to think otherwise. I'm not that down on the team, and honestly the writeup in the FTN Almanac isn't as down on the team as the projection is either. But I'm expecting something in that 8-9 win neighborhood and fighting for the last wild card. I firmly believe Williams is going to eventually be that guy, and probably a very good rookie, but just inherently as a rookie he's going to have a handful of stinkers.

Looking to avoid doing work, I'm looking at the 40 man roster situation and it's actually a lot better than I thought it was. - Right now there are 39 spots filled - 7 guys are on the 60 day IL: Almonte, Alzolay, Brewer, Brown, Kilian, Little, and Wicks. This means the roster is effectively at 46 for the offseason - 3 pending FAs (Hendricks, Lopez, and Smyly) plus two guys unlikely to have their options picked up in Neris and Bote. Bellinger can also leave obviously. Roster is at 40 or 41 - I count 10 guys who could be cut or included in minor trades without too many tears, whether that be for performance (Brewer, Nido, Betancourt, Mastro) or injury (Almonte, Davis, Madrigal) or roster crunch (Canario, Wisdom, Mervis). I don't expect all 10 to be dumped, for instance one of the crappy catchers will be rostered until the position is addressed, and someone like Almonte is a sure keeper if his medicals are decent. But 6 or 7 seems likely. Roster around 35 - 3 prospects absolutely need to be added to the roster in Caissie, Cowles, and Neely. Christian Franklin and BJ Murray each have some argument as well. No one else is really that pressing unless internal evals on one of the lesser Iowa relievers are higher than I expect. Roster back up in the 38-40 range That 38 to 40 range where beyond that you have to start making cuts that hurt is basically right in the sweet spot you want to be. You want some room to add but you don't want it to be easy to make room because that implies your depth is poor.

It's not as glaring as some of the other needs, but seeing matchups like this really drives home how much this roster could use a lefty masher. All of the lefties on the roster except PCA hold their own well so it doesn't register as a major weakness, but I think it does limit the ability to optimize matchups. I think the ideal fit in the roster would be a Kevin Pillar/Reed Johnson type who can cover CF. But I increasingly want the lefty mashing ability over the CF coverage. Teoscar Hernandez for instance.

So with pencils down, my initial thoughts on this deadline season. Things I Like: - Isaac Paredes is not my favorite profile, but Jed added a player somewhere between very good and great at a position of dire immediate need and did so while keeping the powder for 2025, both dollars and prospects, largely dry - Because Jed held off on selling Taillon or any outfielders, the team's to-do list for this winter is pretty mild. Catcher and relief help are musts, but any other additions can be about finding the best players and not paying a premium to plug specific holes - Nate Pearson is like the platonic ideal of a reliever you should add in a position like the Cubs are in currently. Glove perfect move Things I Don't Like: - They should have done something at catcher. If the plan is to address the position via trade no reason not to do it now. If the plan is a free agent, I still think two back of the top 30 prospects to give Danny Jansen a thorough audition is worth it given the farm's depth. Maybe add a 2nd division starter or a near ready prospect you especially like. But fixing catcher before next spring is too important to be like "oh it's fine we'll handle it in December" - I would have liked more done with the bullpen. Personally blowing it up and building the whole thing out of Iowa stuff monsters was my preferred path. But even if there are soft factors why you want some veterans in the mix I think adding another Pearson type (ideally a lefty) would have been prudent - I feel like there was probably some opportunity to zig while the industry zagged. This is the first deadline ever where a top 100 prospect (by BA at least) didn't change hands. In an era of hyper prospect hugging what could you have gotten if you put out there that e.g James Triantos is burning a hole in your pocket?

Are we thinking next Tuesday will be moving day? Have the college guys get into ACL games this weekend and head off to MB/SB next Tuesday, and then move up the Shaw's of the world accordingly?

Isaac Paredes is the most valuable player moved at this deadline by a considerable margin, what are we doing here?

They don't even have to do anything nefarious. He's pacing for exactly 60 games. If he continues pitching well (which he has been for a little while now) he probably exceeds it and you're probably happy with the option and if he doesn't he doesnt and you're happy to show him the door.

Tauchman’s in an awkward spot timing-wise because I think you want one of him or Cody on next year's team but not both. Speaking of things that are dependent on the Cody decision, Robert surviving the White Sox roster purge is great for us. He's a guy who's fit on our roster for next year can vary significantly based on what Bellinger and PCA's next three months look like.

Very surprised Smyly especially is still here. I wonder if they valued the ability to cover some innings more than the nominal return.

So by this logic no one wants Jack Flahery either

Oh interesting I didn't catch that either. He must have had a Luis Vasquez type "we need a healthy body for a weekend" type deal with hid AAA stint? Yeah his AA numbers are a lot better in that light.

Yeah Cowles probably goes straight to Iowa, and some glowing Statcast data would make this look like a no brainer really fast. But as of right now he's approximately infield Christian Franklin?

I don't love this return out of hand, but Cowles would not surprise me as a guy where a we get an updated scouting report and then immediately go "oh okay yeah I get it now." He is repeating the level but that's a great slash line from a guy who can cover SS.

Completely arbitrary and made up odds based on rumors and vibes Smyly - 95% chance of being moved Leiter - 80% chance Neris - 60% chance (would be a near lock like Smyly if not for his option) Taillon, Merryweather, Bellinger or Tauchman - 25% chance Anyone else - <10% chance

If there is some magic needle threading move akin to the Burnes/Joey Ortiz deal the Brewers did last winter where Jed can get a catcher ready to step in immediately then absolutely trade Hoerner. Otherwise I just don't see how it makes more sense now than it did on Saturday. If anything it's the opposite because trading for Paredes implicitly says that the team's belief is that Shaw's not ready to be an OD starter next year. I'd buy that Hoerner's less likely to be here in 2026 than he was previously, but I think TT and Squally are right that Hoerner is not and should not go anywhere prior to the start of next season.

If the Cubs are over the luxury tax it's by like a few million at most. They'll save that when they gut the bullpen in a few hours, it's not worth stressing over.

Their top pitching prospect....

Fedde's been dealt, as has Zach Eflin Flaherty to NYY sounds pretty far along Skubal and Crochet sound like they're staying put, and even if not they're a different tier of pitcher Depending on the overlap between the Taillon and Yusei Kikuchi markets, I don't think there are any other major pieces of leverage impacting a trade left. If he takes the ball in two hours I'd be pretty shocked if he subsequently gets dealt tomorrow.