Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Nope. Maddux threw 92 when he was young, which by early 90's standards was well above average. Similarly his K rate was 18.9% from 91-01. The league K rate at that time was 16.2%
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Caissie has his share of warts, but I do feel like some prospect fatigue is setting in and he's not getting proper credit for his age relative to league. He was the 10th youngest player to get at least 200 PAs at AAA last year. If he was at AA he'd have still been around 30th. I can't help but wonder if he'd put up a ~160 wRC+ a level lower if he wouldn't be getting more love right now.
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Keith Law: 14 - Matt Shaw 33 - Kevin Alcantara 46 - Moises Ballesteros 74 - Cade Horton No Caissie, which shouldn't surprise as Law's been the low man on Caissie for years. Cam Smith at 43 and Zyhir Hope at 58. No Jackson Ferris.
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A backup 1B feels pretty essential. Even if it's not someone exciting, Ty France for instance, it's the most definitive remaining need for the team. The backup 1B right now on a short term basis is probably Miguel Amaya? For a long term basis it'd be Ballesteros. That's bad, really bad. Carlson is a fun look for a backup CF. Prior to 2024 he even at his worst mauled lefties. He's young enough that you can easily believe last season was an aberration. And if he still sucks oh well by Memorial Day decent chance we're ready to call up Alcantara.
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Fall of the house of Busch-er
Bertz replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Kind of wild that this team just punted an entire offseason. A couple outfielders and a couple pitchers and this team is in the same neighborhood as the Cubs and Brewers. Or in the other direction sell Gray and Helsely and you likely bring back some very real talent. Instead they're just sort of idling because of this awkward Mozeliak/Bloom succession plan. -
I would take the 1B. That said there *should* be room for two of these. In that case I'd take the 1B and the reliever. One of Mark Canha/Justin Turner and one of David Robertson/Kyle Finnegan rounds this roster out very nicely. You also can't totally rule out a Bregman or a Flaherty. Though I think at this point I'd take the two complimentary players and just plan on making another big deadline move.
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For Busch, I'm really hoping they have Caissie moonlight at 1st. He should be the injury backup for any of Happ, Suzuki, Busch, or Tucker IMO. On top of that, I'd be floored if they don't add a RHH 1B to the bench. On a short term basis. like finishing out the game Busch is injured in, each of Happ, Tucker, and Amaya have some 1B experience. For PCA I suspect the backup will be one of Brujan/Berti/Canario to open the year. But I suspect the reason they're not sniffing around for a real backup CF is that they want Alcantara to spend a good amount of time on the MLB roster this year and handle that role.
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The Athletic guys said similar:
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Bello is a bit more than I was expecting to give up. Not necessarily talent wise, but that much talent and NOT on the 40 man is a bit more than I expected.
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We haven't seen the financials on Kirby Yates yet right? I suspect all of the old FA old closers come in the $12-15Mish range. Pressly would IMO slot in slightly behind Yates and slightly ahead of Robertson/Jansen if he were a FA. I'd guess the cash isn't more then $1-2M, and if it is it is basically acting to buy the player(s) going back.
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This feels relevant given the Cubs literally added Colin Rea. I'd imagine Taillon and Boyd grade out well by this measure as well.
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I wonder how long you give Pressly in a situation like this. Obviously it's not the trade deadline or the winter meetings, there's some time to think things over. But do you give him a day? The weekend? Until the #2 guy on the Cubs' list is about to sign elsewhere?
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Yeah that's kind of hard to turn down. That said 3 years is a bit of an awkward contract length for him as a 30 year old. He'd re-enter FA too old to get more than ~3 years again but clearly wouldn't have banked enough before that for that to feel totally worth it. I wonder if this is a situation for a swell-opt like what Shota or Gerrit Cole have. - Cubs and Bregman agree to a 3 year deal - Bregman has the chance to opt out after year 1 - Cubs have a chance to "nuh uh" that opt out by adding 2-3 years onto the original contract
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- alex bregman
- matt shaw
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Sure, that's not wrong. I think once we get off of paper into real games and injuries start taking their toll the depth will make it's mark though. Like we're all underwhelmed by Colin Rea, but by volume he was the #3 starter for the Brewers in '23 and the #2 starter last year. And both teams comfortably won the division. The point there is not "Colin Rea is secretly good actually" but instead the point is that the rotation we talk about in February and the one we get in June are very different and not in a good way. I mean hell look at last year's Dodgers for an extreme example.
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I'm really talking myself into the Pressly/Robertson combo. That has a real chance to give us a Yankees style bullpen of doom. It also leaves money for at least one more quality bench add, pretty decent chance for two. It's not as sexy as Bregman or Flaherty, but we'd be looking at a strong roster top to bottom.
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Fun fact I just found. Pressly projects slightly better than any Brewers reliever. They will still have a better bullpen than us on paper, but between our improvements and their losses it's not looking like the major advantage it has been the past 8 years
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At this point if you add a closer and a backup 1B, this team is plausibly complete. Closer will likely take low 8 figures, and the 1B can vary (at the low end there are always Garret Cooper types available). So I suspect that we see a closer added very soon here, and then Jed can just be opportunistic for whatever scenario presents itself as the best way to spend the remaining ~$20M. Flaherty? Awesome. Two closers? Great! Max Scherzer? It's worth a shot! I'd guess this ties into Bregman. Bregman is the best player still available by a healthy margin. He also, at a likely ~$30M salary, does not fit as cleanly into the team's budget as other options. So I would guess Heyman is not making things up, but in practice this is Jed and Boras trying to nail down with certainty that Bregman to the Cubs won't work so that both sides can move on.
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Yeah if we're going to make a move like this Bregman is not the guy I'd use this bullet on. Both for Bregman-specific reasons and Matt Shaw reasons. One year pillow deal so he can shed his QO and re-enter next year's market? Hell yeah. 5 year deal? Eeeekkk.
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I think Nico would definitely go. I don't know that it would be Seattle. Nico for Castillo would no longer work financially, and the Mariners appear to have really stuck to their guns on the "we're not trading our young pitching" pledge. Cleveland maybe? I know they traded away a very similar guy in Gimenez, but Nico is signed to a much shorter term so he wouldn't be blocking Bazzana long term.
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I saw this AM that the Rangers are considering having Jon Gray move into late inning relief. That's either a very sad attempt at leverage or a very funny sign that they're tapped out financially.
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David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think the assumption should be that most of the guys who have minor league options will be using them until there is injury or underperformance. There will be injuries, particularly early in the year, but the goal with the pitching staff this winter both in words and actions certainly seems to be maxing out on depth. I love Brown as much as anyone, but he threw just 55 innings last year and none after early June. He can make a handful of starts at Iowa before it should be considered wasting bullets. -
David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't imagine Pearson will ultimately get a real crack in the rotation. That said, if he's stretching out maybe he's used as a 2-3 inning guy (with leverage!) a la Keegan Thompson at the height of his powers? A bullpen like this would be pretty horsefeathering sweet: Closer - Pressly 1 Inning Setup - Robertson, Hodge Multi-Inning Setup - Pearson Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar That multi-inning setup role Pearson resides in would also be an opportune role to get Brown/Horton/Birdsell into the mix at various points through the year as well. -
David Robertson talking to Cubs about returning
Bertz replied to Southpaw19's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Robertson is a veteran closer, but has not always insisted on save opps. So it may not be an accident that it's Pressly and Robertson getting talked about concurrently. You can pair Pressly and Robertson, while you (probably) can't pair Pressly and Jansen for instance.
