Bertz

Has he lost weight? He's not skinny by any means but he looks like he's built like a Naylor brother now?

I think you're missing inflation. Pretty sure when Heyward signed it was one of the 10-15 biggest deals ever. Lester I believe was a top 10 pitcher contract at the time. Here's a list that I believe is up to date or at least good through last year's free agency: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/ I've made this argument before last offseason, but one thing we should be careful of is conflating "never" and "not yet." Last year Andrew Friedman went full Steinbrenner, but prior to that he was very reticent to do top of market free agent deals. He signed Greinke to a top of market deal in 2013, and after that nothing until Mookie Betts in 2020 (technically an extension but spiritually fits with FA deals IMO). And in the nearly four years between Betts and Ohtani the only big deal he signed was Freddie Freeman, who got big money for a 1B but less money than Dansby Swanson. I do think Jed is exceedingly conservative and will remain so, but I do think if circumstances can greatly impact where a GM draws the lines.

92 current prospects on Fangraphs are rated as a 50 FV or better, 26 were IFAs (28.3%). In the earliest list they have on The Board, 2017, it appears to be 41 out of 133 (30.8%). I don't know if that 2.5% difference in makeup between draft IFA feels meaningul to me, but I will say nearly 40% fewer IFAs overall in those impact grades certainly does.

Just doubling up here. The Cubs played 12 of their first 17 games in August at home. They then played 15 of 21 on the road. Isaac had a 31 wRC+ in the first stretch, and a 127 in the second. Especially given that August Wrigley does not tend to play as pitcher friendly as it does at other times of year, do we think Paredes was cold and then got hot in late August because he left Wrigley? Or do we think he got hot and it just so happened to be when the team left Wrigley? I just don't see any reason to assume it's the former without WAY more data.

Home road splits are broadly misleading. Home road splits in a two month sample are barely more predictive than astrology or bone divination

To Kyle's point about Caleb playing like a vet already

Blaming a team for not having an Acuna or a Tatis level player is, frankly, silly. Those are pure lottery tickets, and it's especially clear when you see they got 6 figure deals instead of top of the market bonuses that even the teams had no idea. Further, very good IFA teams like the Yankees and Astros have not produced guys like that in my adulthood. To the topic broadly, it's clear that the team was extremely good at the IFA piece during the first half of Theo's tenure. Soler, Torres, Jimenez, Assad, Amaya, etc., etc. It's clear that something broke in approximately 2016, because the back half of the Theo tenure is bleak. I might be missing a reliever or something, but it looks like the only guys with even a chance at MLB time still are Kevin Made, Pablo Aliendo, and Richard Gallardo. Likely bit players even in the unlikely event they make it. And what's most notable. and needs to be kept in mind during these types of conversations, is we had ZERO idea st the time that the worm was turning. We were all riding high with Gleyber and Eloy and reports that guys were signing with us because Javy was so gosh darn popular. But things were broken and it took ~3 years for it to become obvious publicly. In that vein, the Jed era is too early to say. Sans those super duper mega stars like Acuna, you're usually looking minimum 4-5 years between signing and debut. We know the front office was largely overhauled in 2019. The IFA classes from '20 on still look pretty good, though everyone besides Ballesteros is in A ball or lower still. But Cristian Hernandez, Jefferson Rojas, Alfonsin Rosario, Pedro Ramirez, plus generally strong reports out of the complex leagues makes it feel like that LatAm pipeline is functioning properly again.

I've gotten up on this soapbox before, but fans have this silly tendency to assume any player who has been lucky is bad. And that's not true. Blake Snell is an example I like, in 2023 he pitched at an All Star level, got lucky on top of that, and won a Cy. But don't lose the pitching like an All Star part! Paredes was lucky to play in a home ballpark that was tailor made to his swing. HOWEVER, just because he was lucky to put up a 130 wRC+, does not make him bad when you remove him from those favorable conditions. On the road as a Ray he put up a 110! That would make him offensively the 10th best qualified 3B in the league last year. It also ignores that players universally hit better at home than on the road, so that floor is probably more like 115, which is what the Phillies got out of Alec Bohm this year. Like Squally said it is not the sexiest profile. That said 3B on a league level is pretty badly hurting for guys with sexy profiles, so it's not like there was some grand alternative to be had unless you have some kompramat on the Guardians or Red Sox leadership.

Sports Illustrated is not the brand you grew up with https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolekraft/2024/01/21/mass-layoff-appears-to-be-the-end-of-sports-illustrated/ It's pure AI/content aggregation slop at this stage

I think this overstates Mountcastle's value a good bit. I think he's closer to being a non-tender than he is someone whose trade will hurt. I could see needing to open up 500 PAs for him as a condition of swooping in and signing him as a FA, but if we trade for him giving him basically the Patrick Wisdom playing time would make sense. IMO Mountcastle is the "Bellinger stays" lefty masher option, while we aim higher and for more of a complete 500+ PA option (Taylor Ward?) if/when Bellinger opts out.

There is essentially zero chance Paredes gets traded this winter. Going out and getting him in July was a signal that: A) They did not want to rely on internal options. Option really, as Shaw is the only guy even vaguely viable B) They did not want to be Bregman or bust this winter. And let's be real, the 3B market this winter is basically just Bregman and some bench players. Before anyone gets any wacky "Sign Bregman and then trade Paredes!" ideas, the timing is very unlikely to be viable. Bregman being a Boras client means the over under on his signing date is approximately MLK Day. Very tough to count on having post signing runway to work out a trade.

I'm not a hater but having lived through Trubisky I will say the not throwing to his left thing is at least a yellow flag.

I feel like the burden of proof is kind of on you here? I know you don't like his leg kick, but none of the actual scouts mind it given he's a fairly consensus top 50 prospect. And from a data perspective there aren't any red flags. The contact numbers at Iowa were a bit soft, but they're not especially problematic and given how little swing and miss he had before Iowa there's a good chance it's adjusting to a new level.

I think that's part of what I specifically like about Castro is it makes the Shaw stuff easier. With Castro able to play seemingly everywhere, the decision can be 100% about Shaw's readiness. In the dream scenario where all four of Swanson, Hoerner, Paredes, Shaw are healthy and performing it does put a squeeze on the veteran bench guys, but maybe you make a trade from there. To your point Tauchman and Castro have too much overlap at that point so trade one. Or if you want to get nuts for an in-season trade Paredes or Hoerner are at that point a bit expendable.

Garcia is very good, decent argument for most underrated player in the league, but he feels like overkill for the team's needs given what's at Iowa. If we didn't have Shaw and Triantos down there, do it. But I think we can settle for more pure bench types. Castro looks pretty ideal to me. Add him, a lefty masher 1B/DH type, and a catcher and you've suddenly got a pretty stellar bench. I know the fanbase is laser focused on "big bat" but as I look forward to this offseason I feel like given what we have in place both in Chicago and Iowa my preferred track is build up the bench and then pour the rest of the resources into the pitching staff.

A full MPH harder than any ball he hit at AAA. Wonder if he's feeling extra good after some time off.

#WeAreGood

Legitimately laughed out loud at this

So heading into the bye the Bears of course lost @Texans but went 4-1 in the winnable games. Combined with what Caleb looks like and you'd have to be a real sicko to not take this start to the season if it had been offered up in August.

There's an episode of Scrubs that always stuck with me. It's the first episode of Elizabeth Banks' arc. She plays a surgeon (I forget what kind). JD's patient that week needs that type of surgery, and Banks' character refuses to do it because it's too risky. Turns out she cynically avoids risky surgeries, because she needs to keep her stats up to earn promotions/fellowships/etc. Jed doesn't really make many bad moves. And even the ones he does make are piddling little things like $5M to Tucker Barnhart or $14M to Trey Mancini. The problem with Jed is very similar to the problem with that character on Scrubs: he's not been willing to take on risk or push past the threshold where his moves would begin to suffer any diminishing returns. The question is if Jed will forever be unwilling to stretch things, or if he has just not yet been willing. By Jed's own admission, they view the club as being in a very healthy place right now. The farm is strong, there is very little long term money tied up. Combine that with his own contractual situation and this winter should be pretty telling. Feels like we have hit "if not now, then when?"

You understand that both of these are linking to the same guy, right? And that the original guy was predicting Sugano to the Cubs, not reporting a rumor or claiming any sort of intent?

That broken play to Kmet was some young Aaron Rodgers horsefeathers. I can't believe we get this now.

There will continue to be hiccups but he is so god damned good

Anyone have an actual link to something having the Cubs being tied to Sugano, much less being favorites to sign him? As far as I can tell we just have "Jed visited Japan" and "It feels like a Jed move" and that's it?