Bertz

Looking at the Park Factors on Fangraphs, Wrigley has been average or lower in terms of homerun rates every year starting with 2016, and even before that wasn't super high. Whether global warming or the scoreboards or the construction in the neighborhood it's been a while since the wind blew out often enough for Wrigley to net out as a hitters park.

Generally best not to bet against Passan but Nick Pivetta with a qualifying offer attached does not feel like a likely target. Without the pick? Sure, the stuff models ADORE him and while there's a gap between his peripherals and his ERA, it's pretty easy to chalk that up to Boston's terrible defense. Kikuchi is much more straightforward. He has always looked like an ace, but settled in as merely pretty good. But after going to Houston and making some very straightforward adjustments (mainly throwing fewer curveballs) he looked like an absolute ACE down the stretch last year. If you think he's even 80% of what he was in Houston going forward, it's a no brainer to sign him for $60-80M when Fried's going to get more than double that and Burnes is going to get ~3x as much.

I'm more comfortable than most when it comes to older pitchers, but any of these guys feel like a poor fit for this team. The Cubs are not really hurting for innings. Presuming a separate addition closer to the front of the rotation (whether by FA or trade), and presuming that Wesneski is fully considered a short relief option, this is still the Cubs' rotation depth Steele Imanaga Higher End SP Taillon Assad Brown Wicks Horton Birdsell There are obviously question marks on health or performance or both for many of these guys, that said there are 9 starters you'd feel at least somewhat comfortable with starting a game next April. That's not to say you can't add additional starters, but I think if you do add more SP depth those additions need to add either talent or certainty above the level of the guys already in house. If you're giving up the freedom and flexibility to swap between the optional depth/prospect types, there is a decently high bar to clear.

One blessing about this situation as opposed to something like Ohtani or Yamamoto last year is it shouldn't hold everything else up. Sasaki is probably not going to sign until January, but whoever signs him will presumably have to shift to a six man rotation, or at least a modified one. Combined with his nonexistent salary and teams should be able to operate independently of his decision. Maybe a handful of trades involving low cost SPs might hold out for his decision? But it's unlikely to be the industry pausing deal Ohtani was last winter, thank god.

For what it's worth the guys at the Athletic threw some warm water on this this morning. More or less belief internally seems to be if he doesn't go with the Dodgers thr Cubs have as good of a chance as anyone.

Presumably Kelly and Higashioka get essentially the same deal. Jansen maybe a bit more? You could put your tin foil hat on and wonder about O'Hoppe's availability, but my guess is this is meant as a partnership/mentorship deal.

This is a big part of it. The list of teams where you can construct a deal for Hoerner that makes sense for both sides really seems to begin and and end with the Mariners? I feel like most deals with that narrow of a potential scope are destined to not materialize. Though Jerry does love making deals so maybe there's a shot.

Something that got lost a bit in the Passan article: he expects the SP market to move pretty quickly while the bats might take a long time again

I mean a healthy amount of it is semantics. Like these are the pitching WAR leaders from last year among free agents: Burnes - 3.7 Kikuchi - 3.5 Fried - 3.4 Flaherty - 3.2 Manaea - 2.8 Eovaldi - 2.7 Passan's comment tied them to Kikuchi, feels like if it didn't include the words "mid market" there'd be like 80% less whining right now?

I think the difference between what Passan actually said here and what the local guys said last week is pretty negligible.

We actually managed to keep our Japanese import from last offseason healthy?

You know who is an incredible, glove perfect fit for this roster? Randal Grichuk. Even as I've been unable to shut up about a lefty masher all offseason, because of his Cardinals tenure combined with not being able to cover 1B (and pre-Bellinger some 1B coverage felt pretty necessary), I've completely ignored him. But he DEMOLISHES lefties. His wRC+ is 150 against them over the last three years, in nearly 500 PAs too so not really small sample size. It comes with power too, 25 dongs (a 30 per 600 PA pace) and a .573 slugging. Defensively the story is a bit mixed. His speed is still fine, and DRS makes it seem like he was trash at Coors field but can handle himself elsewhere. Statcast thinks he has been pretty awful even after leaving. I'd believe anything from pure DH to "can still fake it in CF," but one of the bonuses to Bellinger opting in is on this roster any defense this guy provides is purely a bonus. He also feels pretty unequivocally like a bench player, there shouldn't be any messiness about offering X amount of playing time like you might have with certain other options.

You know what, kudos to them for keeping me on my toes. They knew I was braced for something like Chase Strumpf at #14 but they had another trick up their sleeve.

I honest to god have no idea if this is a great joke or if you're being serious

This is suspiciously normal. Where's the signature BA nonsense? Is Brailyn Marquez #11 or something.

Gut feeling: The Dodgers-Soto stuff doesn't have a lot of legs and it's mostly Boras using them as a boogeyman so neither NYC team gets comfortable thinking it's realistically a two horse race. I'd peg them for something more like Willy Adames, re-signing Teoscar, and a pitcher

I wish I could find it, but there was an article earlier this year talking about Imanaga’s transition, and it mentioned that with experience the Cubs have gotten really good at all the soft hospitality type things with their Japanese players. I remember an anecdote about the post game food. A lot of teams don't provide anything Japanese, and even some teams that do it might be like a couple pre-packed sushi rolls from the case at Whole Foods. The Cubs have like actual meals for Shota and Seiya and the interpreters. If you're placing odds it should be like 30-40% Dodgers, 40-50% anywhere else on the West Coast. But I think you could make an argument for the Cubs being the top option among markets that don't touch the Pacific. Seiya seems to like it here, Darvish liked it here, seems like Shota frigging LOVES it here.

Dodgers have to be considered the favorite, though you do have to wonder if the idea of going somewhere that he'd be 3rd billing would work against them. Padres feel like the next most likely. West Coast, gets to hang with his idol, continue building that Yankees/Red Sox style deal they've got over there. Beyond that I think you have to always assume West Coast by default. The Darvish stuff does give us more of a chance than I thought. Imanaga mentioned that Darvish recommended Chicago pretty profusely. And I think having Imanaga and Suzuki here already obviously helps.

Looks like Eric Longehagen is going to do his Cubs prospect list early this year instead of June like the last two years

I'm becoming pretty adamantly two starters pilled. One via trade one via FA. - It makes settling in FA less problematic. For instance Nate Eovaldi as a big fish is a very disappointing offseason. Nate Eovaldi paired with any the Mariners is one hell of a rotation upgrade - Similarly, you can feel empowered to be a bit more creative in the trade. For instance, I love Trueblood's Griffin Jax idea. But you simply cannot do that and then consider the rotation finished. You can't really even just pair him with a boring innings eater. As tantalizing as the upside is, it's a move where you have to insulate yourself both on innings and performance - Aside from catcher, where the market sucks, and some bench/bullpen spots (where playing time make racking up WAR tough) Assad as a definite SP is pretty clearly the weakest link on the roster - It's a way to use some of the asset depth at Iowa while still adding a longer term asset - It can be done somewhat independently of anything else, it's not something that e.g. only works if you can sign Alex Bregman first

The Athletic Guys have been putting out a lot this week. If you add it all up, I think this is the takeaway in terms of offseason plan/direction - Starting pitcher is the top item on the to-do list and where the team plans to invest the most resources. That probably means someone pretty top of market, but the team does trust their pitching development so it may end up someone mid market who they just really like (such as Imanaga). - Pitching depth has been mentioned A LOT. This certainty applies to the bullpen, where Jed said something to the extent of "we should just assume 3 relievers will get hurt in April again" but I wouldn't be surprised if it applies to SP as well. I wonder if the big SP comes via trade if they do someone like Shane Bieber on top of that - The team is looking to do some heavy lifting in trades. That said if you circle back to Jed's end of season press conference, plus his last two big trades, he's mentioned that he prefers getting team control when giving up major talent - Catcher is a certainty to be addressed. After Amaya's strong second half though it will no longer be someone like O'Hoppe, instead expect one of the veteran FAs like d'Arnaud, Jansen, or Kelly - The team is not worried about Hoerner, so don't expect a starting caliber 2B addition. They do want a LHH infielder for the bench though - Nothing else about the offense has really been brought up. So either the team is being tight lipped or it's low priority. I would assume at minimum someone in the Patrick Wisdom mold is on the way?

It's two things, neither of which make it any less silly: - Adames is unequivocally the best players at his position in his free agent class - Adames is a 30 homer guy rather than a 25 homer guy. Nevermind that he's worse overall

Bregman is a good hitter, but if you look at what he's done post juiced ball he's more Ian Happ than star. And Ian Happ at 2B would be great, but Bregman will probably be a below average at 2B (in addition to the lack of experience he's slowed down A LOT). You probably get similar net production to Hoerner, but trade 15 runs of defense for 15 runs of offense. Worth considering in a vacuum, but worth getting older and substantially more expensive? Adames feels even more silly. He has a 108 wRC+ the last three years, Hoerner is at 105. You are getting A LOT more homeruns, but you're barely getting better overall.

This feels like a lot of money to barely, if at all, upgrade the team?

In addition to the kids, I think there's some argument for doing one of Happ or Suzuki. One of the medium term concerns with this roster is the cliff after 2026. Right now Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, Taillon and, if he doesn't opt out next winter Bellinger, all become FAs. Plus several of the bench/bullpen types. That's a lot of talent to see head out the door all at once. I wonder if you could do a minor extension with Happ or Suzuki. Something like guarantee salary for '27 while adding a club option for '28?